Monday, October 4, 2021

A presentiment of zero

In poker, whenever no more betting is possible, the hole cards of all the players who are still in the hand are turned face up. There are two ways no more betting is possible:

1. all four betting rounds have already occurred

2. at least one of the four betting rounds has not occurred, but there's only one player left who has chips left to bet with

In the second scenario, the PokerStars software displays the odds each live player has of winning the hand, each time a new community card (or cards, in the case of the flop) shows up. When a bad beat occurs, the player who had the best odds of winning earlier on in the hand sees his percentage drop like a rock to zero. That's what happened to me on my final hand of last night's tournament. I had a presentiment this would happen, and was sorry to be proven right. After the turn I was nearly a 90% favorite with an ace high and four cards to a flush, but my opponent paired his lower hole card (a four) on the river, and that was all she wrote.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      62   18    38        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $33,629,768
2021 balance: $10,208,000
blue distance: $779,000
balance: $87,873,453

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