Silver lining

Whether I win or lose a session, I'm contracted to write about what happened before being allowed to play another. Who drafted such a nefarious contract? Me :-) It's typically easier to write about winning sessions than losing ones. After losing, I often struggle to find the session's silver lining, but that's what I want to write about.

This is an excerpt from my June 6, 2016 post. Yesterday, I had a losing session, but found a silver lining - I increased my MTT NLHE ITM pct (Multi-Table Tournament No-Limit Hold'Em In The Money percentage) by one hundredth of a percentage point. Not much to crow about, but beggars can't be choosy :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     278   72    64    79000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     245   63   163        0

delta: $-21,000
2024 balance: $3,241,000
2024 blue distance: $21,000
balance: $16,050,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.57 (1220 of 2935)

Uberflushed

One of the worst feelings you can experience at a poker table is having your flush beaten by a better flush, in the case where the board has three cards to a flush and both your hole cards are needed to complete it. The odds that someone else has another such flush, let alone one which beats yours, are small indeed. I call the better flush an uberflush, and say that the loser has been uberflushed :-)

This is an excerpt from my April 3, 2017 post. I was uberflushed on the final hand of the first tournament I entered today. I'd been dealt a jack of hearts and a smaller heart, and the ace of hearts, the queen of hearts, and a smaller heart showed up on the board. I knew I could only be beaten by someone who had been dealt the king of hearts and another heart. I called a river bet which put me all in, and got the bad news at showdown. However, I didn't feel downhearted. There were two excellent reasons for this:

1. it was the correct play to call, and I'd make the same call in that situation 100% of the time

2. I'd already made the money :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     334   81    58   102000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     255   72    39   106000

delta: $108,000
2024 balance: $3,262,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,071,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.56 (1219 of 2933)

Getting to the second break

In the $50,000 buy in tournaments that I play on PokerStars, the software gives players two five minute breaks. The first occurs at the 24 minute mark, which is five minutes before the late registration period ends, and the second is somewhere around the one hour mark. Since I habitually join tournaments late in the late registration period, I almost always make it to the first break. Getting to the second break is exponentially harder. If you make it to the second break, you've definitely made the money, and are likely to have a decent shot at making the final table. Today, I made it to the second break, and narrowly missed making it to the final table. Don't look now, but I'm closing in on crossing the $16,000,000 boundary once again :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     294   72    11   206000

delta: $156,000
2024 balance: $3,154,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,963,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.52 (1217 of 2931)

Apples and oranges

Back in the days when I played sit and gos, I realized that it made a lot of sense to standardize on a buy in; if you don't, then a loss in a big buy in sit and go can wipe out all the gains you made in a bunch of small buy in sit and gos. That's like mixing apples and oranges, generally not a smart idea. The same is true, to a lesser extent, for MTT NLHEs. Accordingly, I'm going to try playing $200,000 buy in tournaments exclusively for a while, and see how I do.

This is an excerpt from my January 24, 2020 post. It highlights another good reason for my recent decision to stop playing both $50,000 buy in and $100,000 buy in tournaments. Last night, even though I didn't have a profitable session, the fact that the tournament where I missed the money had a $50,000 buy in instead of a $100,000 one meant that I saved myself from losing an additional $50,000 :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     351   81   111        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     283   72    57    93000

delta: $-7,000
2024 balance: $2,998,000
2024 blue distance: $79,000
balance: $15,807,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.50 (1216 of 2930)

Thinner tournaments considered harmful

A thin tournament is one that doesn't have a large number of entries. Thin tournaments have smaller prize pools, fewer paid places, and smaller payouts. A trifecta of good reasons not to enter them! The only way to ensure that you don't enter a thin tournament is to postpone entering it until it has grown fat :-)

This is an excerpt from my June 10, 2021 post. On PokerStars, the number of entries is usually in inverse proportion to the buy in. The smaller the buy in, the larger the number of entries, as a general rule. So far this year, and for most of last year, I've only played in tournaments with a buy in of $50,000 or $100,000. I got curious to compare how well I do in these. I just ran this year's numbers and was surprised to see that my balance for the $100,000 buy in tournaments is in the red. Here are the numbers:

  balance    buy in  tournaments
==========  ======== ===========
$3,376,000   $50,000         502
 $-371,000  $100,000          47

I've played in far fewer $100,000 buy in tournaments, but the writing is on the wall. I'll restrict myself to the $50,000 buy in tournaments going forward.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     239   63    72        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     359   99    68    96000

delta: $-54,000
2024 balance: $3,005,000
2024 blue distance: $72,000
balance: $15,814,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.50 (1215 of 2928)

A solitary superdonk

Some years ago, when I was playing lots of rebuy tournaments, I encountered lots of superdonks. These are skill-less players who routinely go all in, hit the felt, rebuy, go all in, hit the felt, rebuy, ad nauseum. Lather, rinse, repeat  ... The PokerStars Valueraptor tournaments, which are my new midnight train, allow re-entries during the late registration period, but somehow the superdonks have stayed away. Last night, I encountered one, but it was a lone wolf.

This is an excerpt from my July 12, 2022 post. Tonight, in the second tournament I entered, I encountered another lone wolf superdonk. I waited for an opportune time to call his customary all in preflop bet, and found it when I was dealt pocket sevens. I called, he turned over cocktail napkins, my sevens held up, and I doubled up through him. As a rule, I hate superdonks, but sometimes I love them in isolation :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     217   63    50   162000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     423   99    29   167000

delta: $179,000
2024 balance: $3,059,000
2024 blue distance: $18,000
balance: $15,868,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.49 (1214 of 2926)

An exaltation of aces

I had another stupendous result last night. Once again, I came in second in an MTT-R, this time for a profit of over 2 and a half million play dollars. This was due in no small part to my receiving from the poker gods an exaltation of aces. I got dealt pocket rockets four times in 161 hands, which is 5.49 times their normal frequency.

This is an excerpt from my June 14, 2017 post. Last night, I received another exaltation. In the second tournament I entered, I estimate I played about 60 hands (PokerStars no longer saves the hand histories for play money tournaments) and was dealt pocket rockets 3 times. That amounts to a frequency factor of 11. In other words, I was dealt rockets at a rate 11 times the expected rate. Turn the dial up to 11 :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     260   72   125        0
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     164   45    20   216000

delta: $66,000
2024 balance: $2,880,000
2024 blue distance: $197,000
balance: $15,689,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1212 of 2924)

My kingdom for an orbit

Sometimes, you know you're going to make the money in an MTT. Other times, you know you're going to just miss making the money. The closer you get, the more it hurts not to make it. It really hurts to know that it you could just drag your sorry poker carcass around for one more orbit of the table, you'd make it, but there's no way in hell to do it, since you don't have enough chips for the blinds.

This is an excerpt from my January 13, 2017 post. I played three tournaments last night, and didn't make the money in any of them. My best chance was in the third one, but I fell one orbit short.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     352   99   194        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     193   54    89        0
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     178   45    53        0

delta: $-200,000
2024 balance: $2,814,000
2024 blue distance: $263,000
balance: $15,623,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1211 of 2922)

A slight change to a train station definition

As a reminder, here are my definitions of the important stations on the poker tournament train line:

Station 1: when you've outlasted the late registration period

Station 2: when you've outlasted at least 50% of the field

Station 2.125: when you've registered an official place which is less than double the number of paid places

Station 2.25:  when you've outlasted at least 60% of the field

Station 2.5:  when you've outlasted at least 70% of the field

Station 3: when you've made the money

Station 4: when you've made the final table

Station 5: when you've won the tournament

This is an excerpt from my December 17, 2021 post. I've decided to make a slight change to the definition of Station 2.125. The new definition: when you've registered an official place which is less than or equal to double the number of paid places. I've tried to set up the station definitions such that if you reach a particular station, you should previously have reached all the stations with a lower number along the way. Station 2.125 is the only one which is a bit quirky; sometimes you can reach it without having reached station 2 first. However, such cases are rare and we can safely ignore them :-)

The reason I changed the definition of station 2.125 is to reduce the quirkiness, but also to allow me to feel better about some mediocre tournaments. Last night I had a mediocre tournament, but made it to Station 2.125, thanks to my new definition :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     211   54   108        0

delta: $-50,000
2024 balance: $3,014,000
2024 blue distance: $63,000
balance: $15,823,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.49 (1211 of 2919)

3k the hard way

The hard way to make a profit for a session is to lose your first buy in. You're playing catch up at that point. That's what happened to me last night. I only lasted 7 hands in that first tournament. Pitiful! I did way better in the second, just managing to eke out a small profit.

This is an excerpt from my March 16, 2020 post. Last night I made 3k the hard way, losing my first buy in of 100k. Of course, I'll take a small profit over a loss of any size any day :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     363   99     -        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     303   72    23   153000

delta: $3,000
2024 balance: $3,064,000
2024 blue distance: $13,000
balance: $15,873,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.50 (1211 of 2918)

Escape velocity win

An escape velocity win in a poker tournament is when you min cash with virtually no chips - just enough to fold your way into the money. That's what I did last night; when the money bubble burst, I had just 42 chips to my name.

This is an excerpt from my October 19, 2020 post. Last night I had an escape velocity win in the second tournament I entered. When the money bubble burst, I had just 20 chips to my name. This good luck made up for the bad luck I had in the first tournament I entered, when I hit the rail after being an 80% favorite after the turn.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     310   81   130        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     294   72    70    84000

delta: $-16,000
2024 balance: $3,061,000
2024 blue distance: $16,000
balance: $15,870,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.50 (1210 of 2916)

Ladder boy

One of the best skills you can have in tournament poker is the ability to ladder up. That's when the money bubble has burst, and you manage to outlast opponents with bigger stacks than yours, thereby increasing your payout. There are few more satisfying things in poker than laddering up.

This is an excerpt from my June 5, 2020 post. Last night, I laddered up significantly in the third tournament I entered, narrowly missing making the final table. Not too shabby, since I had been Caboose Boy at one point. My extrapolated profit for the year just crossed the four million dollar boundary. Poker life is good :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     354   99    40   127000
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     309   81   188        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     267   72    12   195000

delta: $122,000
2024 balance: $3,077,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,886,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.49 (1209 of 2914)

I hope I shall arrive soon

On Wednesday night, I crossed the $4,600,000 boundary for the 11th time. Of course, the more times you cross a boundary, the more you're floundering, since every other time you're crossing it on the way down. I haven't had this much trouble leaving a boundary in my rear view mirror since the $900,000 boundary, which I crossed 13 times.

This is an excerpt from my June 29, 2012 post.

I've appropriated the title of a wonderful science fiction short story by Philip K. Dick for the title of this blog post ... "I Hope I Shall Arrive Soon"

This is an excerpt from my February 28, 2018 post. I'm now having trouble leaving the $15,000,000 boundary in my rear view mirror. I've crossed it 17 times, which means my last crossing was on the way up, which is good, but my balance seems to be stuck between $15,000,000 and $16,000,000. I hope I shall arrive at $16,000,000 soon :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     201   54    13   300000

delta: $200,000
2024 balance: $2,955,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,764,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1207 of 2911)

S.O.S.

One of the hardest hands to lay down is a set, especially when the board doesn't support a straight, doesn't support a flush, and doesn't support a full house. In such a case, the only hand that can beat yours is a better set. That boils down to someone having been dealt a better pocket pair than yours. That situation is called "set over set". I call it S.O.S. for short :-)

This is an excerpt from my February 3, 2017 post.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - for me, the most memorable hands are ones I lost.

This is an excerpt from my April 13, 2017 post. Tonight, the most memorable hand was my final one of the first tournament I entered. I'd been dealt pocket sixes, and hit a set of sixes on the flop. I got all my chips into the middle, but lost to a player who'd been dealt pocket queens, and had hit a set of queens on the flop. S.O.S.! Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     422   99   139        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     315   81    57    97000

delta: $-3,000
2024 balance: $2,755,000
2024 blue distance: $3,000
balance: $15,564,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1206 of 2910)

A fine blue cadence

Lately I've settled into a fine blue cadence. What I mean by this is that I'm regularly achieving blue sessions, at fairly predictable intervals.

This is an excerpt from my October 6, 2020 post. I'm in a fine blue cadence again, albeit for a looser definition of what it means to be in the blue. Prior to 2022, my poker annus horribilis, my definition of being in the blue was when my career balance reached a new all-time high. Since I lost over 85 million play dollars in 2022, I decided to localize my definition of being in the blue to the current poker year. If I achieve a new high for the current poker year's balance in a session, I count that session as a blue one. Last night's session was my fifth blue one in a row.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     279   72    45   233000
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     303   72    80        0

delta: $33,000
2024 balance: $2,758,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,567,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1205 of 2908)

Guilt-free pre-flop shoving

It's easier to shove post-flop than it is to shove pre-flop, since you have much more information at your disposal. There are very few holdings I feel comfortable shoving with pre-flop. In fact, there are only two - pocket rockets and a big slick. Last night, I doubled up early on in the second tournament I entered when I shoved pre-flop with a big slick. That sent me on my way to making the money :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     329   81   182        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     332   81    57   102000

delta: $2,000
2024 balance: $2,725,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,534,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1204 of 2906)

The best time to join a tournament

I used to think there was an optimal time to join a tournament. I had it narrowed down to whenever at least half but less than three quarters of the late registration period has elapsed. Now I think that idea was rather silly. The best time to join a tournament turns out to be any time - any time at all :-) For the record, I joined last night's tournament with 7 minutes remaining.

This is an excerpt from my July 30, 2020 post. I disagree with my earlier self. The best time to join a tournament is not "any time at all". I now firmly believe the best time is as late as possible. Yesterday, I joined with less than five minutes remaining in the late registration period.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     387   99    76    91000

delta: $41,000
2024 balance: $2,723,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,532,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1203 of 2904)

Caboose boy

For me, the most satisfying tournaments are not the ones where I crush opponents. Rather, they're the ones where opponents are crushing me, but somehow, improbably, I survive.

This is an excerpt from my January 15, 2020 post. The most improbable position to survive is when you're in last place in a tournament; Caboose Boy is my nickname for myself whenever I'm in this position. Last night, I had a decent stack when the money bubble burst, but fairly soon became Caboose Boy. When I was dealt pocket sixes shortly after that, I knew my best chance was to shove. I got two callers, and my sixes held up, thanks in part due to the fact that both of the callers had been dealt an ace, making it harder for either of them to pair it.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     419   99    39   151000

delta: $101,000
2024 balance: $2,682,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,491,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.41 (1202 of 2903)

Shot from guns

An incontrovertible proof of my advancing age, aside from more wrinkles and more gray hair, is the fact that as time goes by, I'm in an ever diminishing pool of people who can remember advertising slogans from sufficiently long ago. One which sticks in my mind is "Shot from guns". This was an ad campaign for a cereal. I confess I had to google the slogan just now to make sure I got the brand right; it was Quaker Puffed Rice.

Can the slogan be applied to poker? Easily. It means that it's a good thing to come out of the starting gate quickly ...

This is an excerpt from my January 9, 2014 post. Last night, in the second tournament I played, I was shot from guns. On my first hand, I was dealt the jack of clubs and another club (I forget the denomination), and flopped a flush. I won a decent pot and was off to the races :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     401   99   189        0
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     311   81    37   246000

delta: $96,000
2024 balance: $2,581,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,390,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.39 (1201 of 2902)

yaff

"yaff" is my latest neo neo (neostreet neologism). It stands for "yet another flopped fatty".

One of the fascinating things about poker is that the improbable happens like clockwork. I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating. What I mean by this is that no matter how unlikely a particular event is, you can rely on it to occur with its own particular frequency. You might think that flopping a fatty is an unusual event, but I'm here to tell you that it's actually not. Even though you can only expect it to happen to you once out of every 694 hands, you can expect it to happen to you once out of every 694 hands. This sounds like a tautology, but it's not. As long as you keep playing, you can expect to keep flopping fatties every 694 hands. In other words, you will never stop flopping fatties! Is life great, or what? :-)

This is an excerpt from my August 1, 2013 post. Last night, I flopped a fatty in the first tournament I played. I'd been dealt KTo (king ten offsuit), and two kings and a ten showed up in the flop. Everyone still in the hand checked it down until the river, when I put in a minimum bet, got two callers, and thereby extracted the most value from my holding that I could reasonably expect.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     232   63    43   193000
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     290   72   121        0

delta: $-7,000
2024 balance: $2,485,000
2024 blue distance: $7,000
balance: $15,294,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.38 (1200 of 2900)

Probability radar

An interesting side effect of having probability radar is that it lets you appreciate the rarity of rare events as they occur.

This is an excerpt from my May 7, 2014 post. Last night, my probability radar triggered when I was dealt J4o (jack four offsuit) two hands in a row. Maybe "improbability radar" would be a more accurate moniker :-) Later in the same tournament, I was dealt J4o again. I folded all three times, but felt the luck of the improbability.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     238   63    60    78000

delta: $28,000
2024 balance: $2,492,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,301,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.37 (1199 of 2898)

Lord High Everything Else

"Lord High Everything Else" is the honorific I've come up with for when you place second in an MTT. I've been Lord High Everything Else 10 times in my MTT-R NLHE career, including last night. It's a great feeling :-)

This is an excerpt from my July 19, 2019 post. Last night, I was Lord High Everything Else for the 30th time in my MTT NLHE career. It never gets old :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     272   72   140        0
MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     328   81   144        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     193   54     2   662000

delta: $462,000
2024 balance: $2,464,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $15,273,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.35 (1198 of 2897)

The Once and Future Blog

It's been over two years since my last post. Although I stopped posting, I never stopped playing poker. After mulling things over for quite some time, I've decided to resume posting. 2022, the year within which I stopped posting, was my worst poker year; it's the only year where I lost play money, and I lost a shit ton of it. Here are the numbers:

    $175,580 2009
    $590,909 2010
  $2,430,888 2011
  $3,093,183 2012
    $775,963 2013
  $2,467,065 2014
  $1,078,034 2015
    $667,466 2016
 $34,095,430 2017
  $1,071,000 2018
 $15,273,750 2019
 $15,857,443 2020
 $17,178,500 2021
$-85,059,050 2022
  $3,024,400 2023
  $2,464,000 2024

You can only lose that much money that fast by playing at super high stakes. I eventually pulled the ripcord on playing at super high stakes while I still had a career profit, but it's clear I should have pulled it much sooner than I did. For the last two years, I've played for reasonable stakes - a mix of $50,000 and $100,000 buy-in tournaments.