Punctuated equilibrium

The most common outcome of a hand played in a tournament is that you fold preflop, and lose your ante. Therefore, you must accept that your chip stack will undergo periods where it steadily decreases. Consider these periods as the cost of doing business. Moreover, since every player in the tournament is alike in this respect, you can even consider these periods as periods of equilibrium. Hands which punctuate this equilibrium are the bread and butter of every successful player. When they arrive, they should be jumped on with both feet :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     328   81   142        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     399   99    43   143000

delta: $43,000
2024 balance: $3,865,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,674,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.72 (1270 of 3044)

Punctuated equilibrium

Two hands from last night's session really stand out. On hand 14, I tripled up with pocket nines. On hand 26, I lost 7,550 in chips to hit the felt with KQo (king queen offsuit). The rest of the hands were much ado about nothing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      47   12    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $45,729,000
2019 balance: $12,405,250
balance: $58,989,510

Punctuated equilibrium

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, it's got punctuated equilibrium written all over it. On virtually every hand, one of three things happened:

1. nothing
2. I won a significant amount of chips
3. I lost a significant amount of chips

I wrote these words more than six years ago, when I was still in my cash game NLHE phase, but they apply equally well to last night's MTT-R NLHE session. Punctuated equilibrium sessions are rare, but like all rare things, recur at regular, albeit widely-spaced, intervals :-) 

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      64   15    50        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,464,000
2019 balance: $5,460,250
balance: $52,044,510

Punctuated equilibrium

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the second tournament I played last night, two hands stand out. On hand 32, I had my largest winning hand delta of 6,725 chips. The very next hand, I had my largest losing hand delta of 11,977 chips. You just don't see that every day :-)

In other news, my slump continues apace. My blue distance is nearing two million.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      77   18    28        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    51      54   12    31        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,875,500
2018 balance: $7,167,000
balance: $52,680,260

Punctuated equilibrium

I've never been shy about reusing a blog post title. If the shoe fits, wear it :-) I'm guessing this is the third time I've used this particular title. It describes the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session to a nicety. I moved from $20,000 to over $30,000 in just two hands, stayed hovering around $30,000 for the bulk of the session, then moved up to just over $50,000 on the penultimate hand. Why did the second jump take so long to happen? Since it takes energy to punctuate the equilibrium, you need a certain amount of recovery time after a puncture to build up enough energy for the next one.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 31 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 12 out of 23 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 19 out of 31 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $29,117
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,773,531
balance: $7,130,484

Punctuated equilibrium

You know you've been writing a blog for a long time when the most natural title for a new post turns out to be one you've used before. This is my third such in a row. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, it's got punctuated equilibrium written all over it. On virtually every hand, one of three things happened:

1. nothing
2. I won a significant amount of chips
3. I lost a significant amount of chips

At one point, I'd doubled my starting stack amount. I should have quit then, but didn't. Why not? Because I was feeling invincible. That's a great feeling, but also a treacherous one. Time is the great equalizer in poker; the longer you play, the more things tend to even out. Whenever you manage to double your stack in a cash game, you should take the money and run.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 104 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 12 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
 - 35 out of 78 times in other positions (44%)
 - a total of 52 out of 104 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-7,282
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,370,651
balance: $6,820,059

Punctuated equilibrium

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session (I use this phrase so much, perhaps I should abbreviate it to BCOMSSOTCOLNS :-) illustrated punctuated equilibrium. That is, it stayed remarkably consistent for the most part, except for two big jumps. On the first jump, my king high straight won a pot worth $39,600. On the second, my three of a kind, kings won a pot worth $31,200. I've now hit a new all-time gold distance low of -50 in no limit hold'em.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 53 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 2 out of 7 times while in small blind (28%)
 - 17 out of 39 times in other positions (43%)
 - a total of 24 out of 53 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 4 (75%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $39,900
balance: $4,537,844