Flopping the moon

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the one where I flopped the moon. I was dealt K3s (king three suited) and flopped a full house of threes full of kings. A hand like that stops me in my tracks betting-wise. I never want to bet in that scenario; I just want to call any bet until we get to the river. At that point, I'll raise or bet. I got under the lights last night, and that great result got me back into the blue.

 style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      94   24     6   932000

delta: $732,000
MTT NLHE balance: $20,153,668
2020 balance: $12,931,343
balance: $74,739,353

A number to ignore

The tournament lobby window of the PokerStars client offers a wealth of information. Here's what I find most useful:

- number of entries
- total prize pool 
- number of players still alive in the tournament
- number of paid places
- number of minutes remaining in the late registration period
- my current stack
- my current place
- size of largest stack
- size of smallest stack

There's one number included, however, which should simply be ignored:

- size of average stack

This is the total chips in play divided by the number of players still alive in the tournament. It's an artificial construct with little to no bearing on reality. I used to obsess about comparing my current stack to the average stack, but that's a fool's game. As I've come to realize, the size of the average stack is an essentially meaningless number. It tells you nothing about the sizes of actual stacks, which is what you really need to know. Thankfully, the lobby provides that information as well.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      95   24    15   429000

delta: $229,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,421,668
2020 balance: $12,199,343
balance: $74,007,353

Calamity

There was a point during last night's session when I was virtually assured of making the money. 24 places were paid, there were only 26 players left, and I was in 19th place or thereabouts. I remember thinking to myself what a calamity it would be if I failed to make the money in these circumstances. However, that's exactly what happened. On my final hand, I was dealt pocket fours, and hit a set on the flop. The flop held three cards to a straight, but I couldn't see anyone having paid to see the flop with the two cards which filled it. I bet half the pot on the flop, half the pot on the turn, and called a river bet which put me all in. My opponent turned over a straight which he'd made on the river. He'd had no business calling my flop and turn bets. Brutal.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      91   24    26        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,192,668
2020 balance: $11,970,343
balance: $73,778,353

Missing the midnight train

Every night on PokerStars, there's a $200,000 buy in MTT NLHE whose late registration period ends around 12:15 a.m. For that reason, I think of this tournament as the midnight train. Last night, due to playing some online chess, I missed the midnight train. I found another train and hopped on, but it wasn't as juicy, having just a $100,000 buy in. I was still happy to make the money, though :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6      92   24    15   208000

delta: $108,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,392,668
2020 balance: $12,170,343
balance: $73,978,353

Evaluation fixation

Last night, I came about as close as you can get to a 0th place, without actually getting one. I hit the rail a mere minute after the late registration period ended. This was largely due to a bad case of evaluation fixation I had on one particular hand. Evaluation fixation is when you correctly evaluate, upon seeing the flop, the community cards you don't want to see on the turn or the river, but fail to consider the other hands an opponent may have hit, when the cards you don't want to see don't show up. Let me illustrate this with last night's example. I was dealt J9o  (jack nine offsuit), and paired my nine on the flop. It was top pair, but there were two cards in the flop that were of the same suit. I made a mental note to fold if another card of that suit showed up on the turn or the river. In other words, I was saying to myself, "Don't let a flush beat you". The turn card put two flush draws out there; I still had top pair. I was still saying to myself, "Don't let a flush beat you". When the river busted both flush draws, I was so relieved that I bet. I was thinking to myself, "A flush didn't beat me!" instead of asking myself, "What hand can beat me now?". The river card was a king, but all my brain told me was that it wasn't either of the two flush draw suits. When my opponent raised me, I had to fold, and curse myself for a fool. There's no way I should have bet in that situation. At least I had enough presence of mind to realize my opponent likely had a king in his hand. His raise allowed me, belatedly, to "see" the river card :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     114   30    72        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,284,668
2020 balance: $12,062,343
balance: $73,870,353

Baby cowboys bucked

In last night's post, I broke rule #1 when you're on a winning streak - never talk about it until it's over. Not only did I talk about it, I positively crowed. Serves me right that I missed the money. I was doing really well until the hand where I was dealt baby cowboys (pocket jacks). An opponent I had covered went all in preflop, and I called. When he turned over A7o (ace seven offsuit) I knew I was a big favorite. However, he flopped an ace, and his pair of aces held up. That left me with just north of 1,000 chips, and they didn't last much longer.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     101   24    40        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,484,668
2020 balance: $12,262,343
balance: $74,070,353

CFAB

I've now made the money five tournaments in a row. If I can tack on four more, I'll hit the magic .500 number. Right now, playing poker is like taking CFAB - candy from a baby. I feel like I should make the money every single time. That's a dangerous feeling to have, but what can I tell you?  I have it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      95   24    20   330000

delta: $130,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,684,668
2020 balance: $12,462,343
balance: $74,270,353

Under the lights

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - getting under the lights never gets old :-) When I got there last night, I was the runt of the litter, but managed to ladder up two spots. I recorded another partial Monty. My overall balance crested 74 million for the first time. I'm on pace to make a profit of over 25 million this year, which would make it my second best ever. Needless to say, all is right in my poker world :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      76   21     4  1031000

delta: $831,000
MTT NLHE balance: $19,554,668
2020 balance: $12,332,343
balance: $74,140,353

18 again

Last night, for the 18th time this year, I ended a session in the blue. Here are my current blue counts by year:

2009: 14 of 128 (0.109375)
2010: 29 of 208 (0.139423)
2011: 79 of 253 (0.312253)
2012: 67 of 298 (0.224832)
2013: 25 of 311 (0.080386)
2014: 31 of 280 (0.110714)
2015:  5 of 275 (0.018182)
2016: 19 of 303 (0.062706)
2017: 35 of 304 (0.115132)
2018: 13 of 319 (0.040752)
2019: 22 of 327 (0.067278)
2020: 18 of 157 (0.114650)

Since my first blue session didn't occur until May 8th, and I'm on a roll, I predict a haul of at least 50 blue sessions by the end of the year.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      83   21    21   317000

delta: $117,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,723,668
2020 balance: $11,501,343
balance: $73,309,353

.483

With last night's in the money finish, I raised my 2020 itm batting average up to .483 (100 for 207). That's the highest it's been since February 20, when it was .4833 (29 for 60). In other news, my overall balance returned to the blue, for the 17th time this year.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     100   24    14   452000

delta: $252,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,606,668
2020 balance: $11,384,343
balance: $73,192,353

The midnight hour

When midnight approaches, if I'm not already playing poker, I have a sense of urgency to do so. Why? For the simple reason that I know I only have a small window of time to join a regularly scheduled $200,000 buy in MTT NLHE tournament before its late registration period runs out. There's all that juicy dead money out there enticing me to come get it, and I can't resist its siren call :-) That's one of the reasons last night's post was so short and sweet.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     124   30    30   323000

delta: $123,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,354,668
2020 balance: $11,132,343
balance: $72,940,353

Back alley mugging

Back in the days when the PokerStars software allowed me to save the hand histories, I researched my most common holding when hitting the rail in a tournament. As I recall, it was a big slick (ace king). Last night, history repeated itself. I lost to a T9o (ten nine offsuit). My opponent paired both his hole cards on the flop. It felt like getting mugged in a back alley.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     106   30    40        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,231,668
2020 balance: $11,009,343
balance: $72,817,353

Cowboys to the rescue again

Last night, cowboys came to my rescue again. I received them twice, once early on and once nearing the money bubble, when I was short-stacked. I won both hands; the second one enabled me to fold my way into the money. As an added bonus, my overall balance returned to the blue :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      95   24    21   330000

delta: $130,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,431,668
2020 balance: $11,209,343
balance: $73,017,353

Taking aim at a place

Whenever I've made the money in a tournament, I check to see if any of the paid places would take my overall balance back into the blue. If the answer is yes, I take aim at that place. Last night, I took aim at seventh, since that would have done the trick. I missed it by one spot. I have a feeling I'll get back into the blue tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     102   24     8   745000

delta: $545,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,301,668
2020 balance: $11,079,343
balance: $72,887,353

Tripped up

Last night, I broke my vow never to play another bounty tournament again. I had a fairly respectable reason - it was late, and that was the only $200,000 buy-in tournament in progress at the time. I failed to outlast the late registration period, earning a dreaded double dash (0th place). On the final hand, I was dealt JTo (jack ten offsuit) and hit trip tens on the flop. I had one opponent, who bet big enough on the river to put me all in if I called. By then I was priced in, so I did. He'd hit his straight draw, and I was out in a New York minute.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9     162   36     -        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-1,983,820
2020 balance: $10,534,343
balance: $72,342,353

A two by four to the head

With a blog post title like this, you won't be surprised to learn that things didn't end well for me last night. On my final hand, I was dealt a big slick (ace king), paired my ace on the flop, and shoved. I got one caller, who'd been dealt what I call baby cowboys (pocket jacks). Unfortunately for me, my opponent hit a set of jacks on the flop, and they held up. Luckily for me, I'd already made the money :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      90   21    14   438000

delta: $238,000
MTT NLHE balance: $17,756,668
2020 balance: $10,734,343
balance: $72,542,353

A guaranteed streak

Wouldn't it be nice if there were such a thing as a guaranteed win streak? Of course, there is no such thing. However, there is such a thing as a guaranteed streak, and it can lead to excellent results. Right now, I'm in a guaranteed streak, and have won over four million play dollars during it. How long will this streak last? That's the beauty part - as long as I want it to :-) Here's all I need to do each session:

- enter a single $200,000 buy in MTT NLHE 6-max tournament

That's it. Pretty simple, right? Do I have to make the money every time? Certainly not. Do I need to play my best every time? That's a given.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     113   30    67        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $17,518,668
2020 balance: $10,496,343
balance: $72,304,353

Silver lining

Whenever I have a losing session, I always look for a silver lining to write about. Sometimes that's a simple task; other times, not so much. This is one of the latter. The best I can come up with for last night's session is that I outlasted more than half of the field. A poor thing, but mine own :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     134   36    62        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $17,718,668
2020 balance: $10,696,343
balance: $72,504,353

A number you don't see every day

I look at a lot of poker data in preparation for writing these blog posts. Since I import the raw data from each session into a database, I can slice and dice it virtually any way I want. I see a lot of numbers. I'm used to what I consider normal numbers, so unusual numbers stand out. One of the most unusual I've seen is my current 2020 MTT NLHE balance: $11,101,000. You just don't see a number like that every day. It's quite rare to have an 8 digit number composed solely of ones and zeroes. This has nothing to do with poker; I just found it interesting :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      85   21    28        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $17,918,668
2020 balance: $10,896,343
balance: $72,704,353

Mr. Showdown

The most remarkable statistic of last night's session was my pots won at showdown percentage for my first 15 showdowns - a perfect 100. Miraculously, one of those showdowns was due to a fall-in. Those won pots propelled me into the money, and I made it under the lights. I recorded the 62nd Full Monty of my career, and stayed in the blue. I never want to leave :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      98   24     4  1244000

delta: $1,044,000
MTT NLHE balance: $18,118,668
2020 balance: $11,096,343
balance: $72,904,353

Cowboys to the rescue

Last night, I was in dire straits until cowboys (pocket kings) came to my rescue. It's amazing how often poker fortunes turn on a dime. You can't just be good; you also need luck. By the same token, you can't just be lucky; you also need to be good. Poker has a built-in mechanism to keep your ego in check, even while giving you the hubris to think, "I'm the best player ever" :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      92   24     7   784000

delta: $584,000
MTT NLHE balance: $17,074,668
2020 balance: $10,052,343
balance: $71,860,353

Nemesis

I first used this blog post title way back on September 17, 2013, when I was still predominantly playing cash games. Here's a snippet of what I had to say:

Last night, one of my opponents was a real thorn in my side. My nemesis, if you will. Every time I had a good hand, she had a better one ...

Other than the poker variant and the gender of my opponent, those words apply equally well to last night's session. Sometimes, another player just has your number. There's nothing you can do, short of refusing to enter a pot with them, which I would never do.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     100   24    39        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $16,490,668
2020 balance: $9,468,343
balance: $71,276,353

Taking a run at .500

My career ITM (in the money) batting average for MTT NLHE is a super decent .417 (431 for 1034). I have no realistic chance of ever raising it up to .500. However, I can reach it by shortening the observation window :-) I achieved a .508 average (33 for 65) in 2015, and I have a good shot at hitting .500 in 2020. I currently stand at .477 (93 for 195).

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      83   21    11   462000

delta: $262,000
MTT NLHE balance: $16,690,668
2020 balance: $9,668,343
balance: $71,476,353

Double rarity

It's a rare occurrence to start a session in the blue. It's even rarer to achieve a Full Monty. It's rarer still to start a session in the blue and achieve a Full Monty on top of that. I've only accomplished that 5 times in 3,148 sessions. The most recent time? Last night :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     100   24     3  1479000

delta: $1,279,000
MTT NLHE balance: $16,428,668
2020 balance: $9,406,343
balance: $71,214,353

Bubble realities

When tournaments approach the money bubble, most players tighten up their games. That's completely normal. Why risk making no profit at all, when caution increases your chances of making at least a small profit, and potentially a really big one? Last night, I was in danger of being the bubble boy. If every remaining player had played cautiously until the bubble burst, I very likely would have been. Fortunately for me, however, poker can make it difficult to play cautiously, even when you know you should. A player at another table, with more chips than me, became the bubble boy. I don't know how it happened, but can make an educated guess. My guess is that he got dealt a hand too good to pass up, and ran into a bad beat or a cooler. That's happened to me numerous times, so I can relate. It just feels wrong to fold a good hand, even when you're on the bubble.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     109   30    29   284000

delta: $84,000
MTT NLHE balance: $15,149,668
2020 balance: $8,127,343
balance: $69,935,353

Ladder boy

One of the best skills you can have in tournament poker is the ability to ladder up. That's when the money bubble has burst, and you manage to outlast opponents with bigger stacks than yours, thereby increasing your payout. There are few more satisfying things in poker than laddering up. I much prefer it to being a frontrunner. Last night, I laddered up a couple of pay jumps, and got back into the blue.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     104   30     8   633000

delta: $433,000
MTT NLHE balance: $15,065,668
2020 balance: $8,043,343
balance: $69,851,353

Silver lining

I've used this blog post title several times before. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say on June 6, 2016:

Whether I win or lose a session, I'm contracted to write about what happened before being allowed to play another. Who drafted such a nefarious contract? Me :-) It's typically easier to write about winning sessions than losing ones. After losing, I often struggle to find the session's silver lining ...

The only silver lining to last night's session I can come up with is that I avoided the dreaded 0th place - in other words, I outlasted the late registration period, giving me an official place as soon as I hit the rail. Cold comfort :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     114   30    64        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $14,632,668
2020 balance: $7,610,343
balance: $69,418,353

Lord High Everything Else

Last night, I was Lord High Everything Else, finishing in 2nd place. It was my fourth Full Monty of the year, and my most profitable session of the year. Also, I'm back in the blue. I can't take too much credit for this one; the deck kept hitting me in the face. I had cowboys (pocket kings) three times, a big slick (ace king) two or three times, and several other premium hands. Tournaments like that are the reward for anyone who plays long enough :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      94   24     2  1701000

delta: $1,501,000
MTT NLHE balance: $14,832,668
2020 balance: $7,810,343
balance: $69,618,353

My favorite MTT NLHE buy in

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. I've changed my mind since the first time. Poker players tend to do that a lot :-) My current favorite MTT NLHE buy in is $200,000. The reason is simple - I make a larger average profit at this level than any other I've tried. The money up top at this level frequently exceeds 2 million, followed by multiple payouts exceeding 1 million. What's not to like?

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     113   30    62        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $13,331,668
2020 balance: $6,309,343
balance: $68,117,353

A blizzard of blue

In the last 11 sessions, I've ended up in the blue seven times. That constitutes a genuine blizzard, considering I was out of the blue for over half a year until I broke through early last month. I'm still in the sweetness :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      99   24    10   516000

delta: $316,000
MTT NLHE balance: $13,531,668
2020 balance: $6,509,343
balance: $68,317,353