"Always going broke" hand

Certain hands are good enough in the context in which they arise that they're known as "always going broke" hands. This doesn't mean that you'll always go broke with them; not by a long shot! It simply means you'll always be willing to go broke with them, since the odds against that happening are heavily in your favor.

This is an excerpt from my September 10, 2013 post. Yesterday, in the first tournament I entered, I hit the rail on just my second hand, which was an "always going broke" one. I'd been dealt AQo (ace queen offsuit), flopped top pair (queens), and had a gutshot Broadway straight draw after the turn, which I would make if the river was a king. The river wasn't a king, but at that point I was pot committed, so I called a river bet made by the only other player still in the hand, which put me all in. My opponent turned over AKo (ace king offsuit), and I lost to a Broadway straight. Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     367   99   251        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     330   81   194        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     329   81   122        0

delta: $-150,000
2024 balance: $3,261,000
2024 blue distance: $658,000
balance: $16,070,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.59 (1278 of 3073)

Stopping one of two bitches

Heading into yesterday's session, I had two bitches of streaks going on:

Bitch #1: an eight tournament streak of missing the money

Bitch #2: a four session streak of failing to make a profit

I stopped Bitch #1 at nine, making the money in the second tournament I played. Had I called it quits there, I would've stopped Bitch #2 as well, but I decided to play a third tournament, failed to make the money, and thereby extended the Bitch #2 streak to five sessions.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     472  117   211        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     309   81    45   122000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     276   72    98        0

delta: $-28,000
2024 balance: $3,411,000
2024 blue distance: $508,000
balance: $16,220,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.63 (1278 of 3070)

The hateful eight

I've never seen Quentin Tarantino's "The Hateful Eight", but that won't stop me from appropriating its title :-) In this case, the hateful eight are the eight most recent MTT NLHE tournaments I've played. I've failed to make the money in any of them. This year, my longest streak of tournaments where I've failed to make the money is ten, so that record is in jeopardy.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     414   99   207        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     365   99   151        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     349   81   190        0

delta: $-150,000
2024 balance: $3,439,000
2024 blue distance: $480,000
balance: $16,248,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.64 (1277 of 3067)

Rexit

One of the more painful ways to hit the rail in a tournament is when you're a favorite after the turn on your final hand, but the river does you in. You could call that a rivered exit, which I'm going to nickname a rexit. When you're having a good night, a rexit wrecks it :-)

This is an excerpt from my February 23, 2022 post. Yesterday, in the first tournament I entered, I rexited with pocket rockets. I was an 80% favorite after the turn, but it wasn't meant to be. My consolation prize? Earlier in that tournament, I'd been dealt a pair of queens, and flopped quads. That's what I'm talkin' about :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     445  117   138        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     245   63    79        0

delta: $-100,000
2024 balance: $3,589,000
2024 blue distance: $330,000
balance: $16,398,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.68 (1277 of 3064)

More session stats

I often play two MTT NLHE tournaments in a session ... My MTT NLHE ITM percentage in these sessions is 41.19. What this shows is that the number of tournaments I play per session has no bearing on my ITM percentage. It would be weird if it did.

This is an excerpt from my November 12, 2024 post. It turns out I was wrong. I was only looking at two data points - my overall ITM percentage and my ITM percentage in sessions where I played in two tournaments. I needed to be looking at additional data points, namely my ITM percentage in sessions where I played either a single tournament, or more than two tournaments. Here are some revealing ITM percentages:

48.9459 (534 1091)    one tournament played in session
41.1348 (348 846)     two tournaments played in session
36.8132 (201 546)     three tournaments played in session
31.8750 (102 320)     four tournaments played in session

It's clear that the more tournaments I play in a session, the worse my ITM percentage gets. I now think it would be weird if it didn't :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     319   81    75    70000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     292   72   104        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     326   81   169        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     217   63    90        0

delta: $-130,000
2024 balance: $3,689,000
2024 blue distance: $230,000
balance: $16,498,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.70 (1277 of 3062)

The streak is dead. Long live the streak!

When I first heard the phase "The king is dead. Long live the king!" it made no sense to me. How can the king live a single day, let alone a long time, when he's dead? Of course, the answer is that the phrase refers to two different kings. So you'll understand that when I say "The streak is dead. Long live the streak!" I'm referring to two different streaks.

This is an excerpt from my March 31, 2012 post. The streak that died yesterday was my dynamic duo streak. I played two tournaments, fulfilling the first of the two requirements for a dynamic duo, but failed to fulfill the second, namely, making the money in at least one of the tournaments. I'll try to start a new streak today :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     301   72    88        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     238   63   100        0

delta: $-100,000
2024 balance: $3,819,000
2024 blue distance: $100,000
balance: $16,628,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.73 (1276 of 3058)

A pitiful ROI, but mine own

It's easy to calculate the ROI for tournament sessions; simply divide the sum of the deltas by the sum of the amounts wagered. My ROI for yesterday's session was a pitiful 2 percent. I just ran the numbers and found that this is the lowest positive ROI I've recorded for the year, and no less than the fifth time I've recorded it. The good news is that my ROI for the year is a healthy 10.8 percent. In other news, I registered my seventh straight dynamic duo.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     266   72   102        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     195   54    29   102000

delta: $2,000
2024 balance: $3,919,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,728,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.75 (1276 of 3056)

Poxits and prexits

Last night's final hand inspired my latest neo neo - poxit. A poxit is what has befallen you when you were dealt a pocket pair, went all in with it, and hit the rail.

This is an excerpt from my August 5, 2019 post. Yesterday's final hand inspired yann (yet another neo neo) - prexit. A prexit is what has befallen you when you were dealt a premium holding, went all in with it, and hit the rail. Here are the holdings I consider to be premium: AA, KK, QQ, AKs, JJ, TT, AQs, AKo, AJs, and KQs. Note that not all prexits are poxits, and not all poxits are prexits. I was dealt pocket queens on yesterday's final hand, so it was both a prexit and a poxit. In other news, I recorded my sixth straight dynamic duo. In other other news, my 2024 balance returned to the blue.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     438  117   218        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     357   99    27   157000

delta: $57,000
2024 balance: $3,917,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,726,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.75 (1275 of 3054)

Bubbling the bubble

I go back on forth on what makes me feel worse - bubbling a tournament or bubbling the bubble. I think I know why this is. How bad I feel has less to do with the number of places I miss the money by, and more to do with how good I thought my chances of making the money were, before I hit the rail.

This is an excerpt from my November 6, 2021 post. In the first tournament I played yesterday, I bubbled the bubble. I hadn't been expecting to make the money, so I wasn't disappointed. In other news, I recorded my fifth straight dynamic duo.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     307   81    83        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     309   81    78    67000

delta: $-33,000
2024 balance: $3,860,000
2024 blue distance: $52,000
balance: $16,669,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.74 (1274 of 3052)

The dynamic duo

I first came across the phrase "the dynamic duo" when I was a kid, reading a comic book; it was one of the sobriquets of Batman and Robin. I'm going to borrow it for use in a poker context. It'll be my shorthand for a session where I play two tournaments and make the money in at least one of them. Counting Friday's session, I've now achieved the dynamic duo in four straight sessions, my longest such streak of the year.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     385   99    79    91000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     307   81   126        0

delta: $-9,000
2024 balance: $3,893,000
2024 blue distance: $19,000
balance: $16,702,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.74 (1273 of 3050)

A different zip code

Sometimes in poker, you get a premium hand precisely when you need it most. That's what happened to me in the second tournament I entered yesterday. I was short stacked, and hadn't won a single pot. I was dealt a big slick, shoved, got two callers, and tripled up. That moved my stack into a different zip code, and it was easy enough to make the money from there :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     312   81   186        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     275   72    57    90000

delta: $-10,000
2024 balance: $3,902,000
2024 blue distance: $10,000
balance: $16,711,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.73 (1272 of 3048)

Doppelsession

Last night's session was almost a carbon copy of the one before it, giving rise to another neostreet neologism (or neo neo for short :-) -- doppelsession.

This is an excerpt from my September 10, 2010 post. Tuesday's session was a doppelsession of Monday's. I made a decent profit the hard way, missing the money in the first tournament, but making up for it in the second. Since Monday's session got my overall balance into the blue, Tuesday's kept it there. Here's hoping for a threepeat :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     276   72   160        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     355   81    36   147000

delta: $47,000
2024 balance: $3,912,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,721,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.73 (1271 of 3046)

Punctuated equilibrium

The most common outcome of a hand played in a tournament is that you fold preflop, and lose your ante. Therefore, you must accept that your chip stack will undergo periods where it steadily decreases. Consider these periods as the cost of doing business. Moreover, since every player in the tournament is alike in this respect, you can even consider these periods as periods of equilibrium. Hands which punctuate this equilibrium are the bread and butter of every successful player. When they arrive, they should be jumped on with both feet :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     328   81   142        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     399   99    43   143000

delta: $43,000
2024 balance: $3,865,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,674,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.72 (1270 of 3044)

Apockalypse Now

In yesterday's session, I received more than my fair share of pocks (pocket pairs). In the second tournament I entered, I was dealt pocket queens twice, and folded both times. Those are the hands I was proudest of, since I would've hit the rail had I not folded them. In the third tournament I entered, I was dealt pocket sevens three times, the first two of which were back to back. I lost the first one, but made a killing on the other two. Apockalypse now!

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     421   99   173        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     322   81    21   155000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     312   81    44   123000

delta: $128,000
2024 balance: $3,822,000
2024 blue distance: $22,000
balance: $16,631,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.72 (1269 of 3042)

Futile perfection

When you love probability, you find yourself appreciating the beauty of futile perfection, even when it's at your expense. On Saturday night, I hit the felt in 31 hands. I didn't win a single pot. I only went to showdown 3 times. The bar chart of my stack size over time shows a steady, stately descent to zero. Sometimes, there's nothing you can do to prevent a result like this. All you can do is sit back and enjoy its perfection.

This is an excerpt from my February 20, 2012 post. Yesterday, in the first tournament I entered, I achieved futile perfection. I hit the rail in just 23 hands. I didn't win a single pot. I only saw the flop twice. I only went to showdown once, and that was on my final hand. There was a minuscule silver lining - I made it to Station 2.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     339   81   112        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     357   99   120        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     267   72   130        0

delta: $-150,000
2024 balance: $3,694,000
2024 blue distance: $150,000
balance: $16,503,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.69 (1267 of 3039)

Dancing with the one who brung you

It's much easier to make the money in a tournament than to go deep in one. However, to make a profit on tournaments in the long term, it's essential to go deep every now and then. I've debated whether I should change my playing style once I've made the money in a tournament (if I make the money, that is), to maximize my chances of going deep. There are arguments for both sides. I've decided I prefer not to change my playing style except in the following two scenarios:

1. the money bubble is about to burst

2. it's heads up play

When the money bubble is about to burst, it pays to play extremely tightly. Unless you get a premium hand, you should be a folding machine. When it's heads up play, you're essentially forced to play much more loosely; you should be paying to see the flop almost all the time. If neither scenario in in effect, it pays to play the way that got you to where you are in the first place. In other words, you should be dancing with the one who brung you :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     315   81    38   124000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     229   63    31   105000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     449  117    36   158000

delta: $237,000
2024 balance: $3,844,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,653,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.73 (1267 of 3036)

House money

It's always nice to cash in the first tournament you enter in a session; when you do, you're playing with house money. You can reinvest that profit in additional tournaments, and potentially still come out with a profit, even if you fail to cash in any of the others.

This is an excerpt from my December 28, 2019 post. I cashed in the first tournament of yesterday's session, and played a second tournament with house money.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     303   72   34    139000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     280   72   150        0

delta: $39,000
2024 balance: $3,607,000
2024 blue distance: $195,000
balance: $16,416,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.67 (1264 of 3033)

Ubermagicked

It sucks to lose to a magic flush. It sucks even more when you also have a magic flush, but an inferior one. In that case, you've been ubermagicked. That's what happened to me on the final hand of yesterday's session. I was dealt AQo (ace queen offsuit), where the queen was the queen of diamonds. I ended up going all in, and had one opponent at showdown. Four of the five community cards were diamonds, including the ace. I therefore had a nearly unbeatable magic flush. However, my opponent turned over Kxo (king and some random card offsuit), where the king was the king of diamonds, giving him the nut magic flush. All I can say is "Ouch!".

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     339   81   181        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     261   72   186        0

delta: $-100,000
2024 balance: $3,568,000
2024 blue distance: $234,000
balance: $16,377,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.67 (1263 of 3031)

Station 2 percentage

As a reminder, here are my definitions of the first two stations on the poker tournament train line:

Station 1: when you've outlasted the late registration period

Station 2: when you've outlasted at least 50% of the field

Thanks to my latest tournament selection criteria, my station 1 percentage going forward will be a perfect 100. Therefore, the first station whose percentage is meaningful will henceforth be station 2. My station 2 percentage since the final time I recorded a 0th place is currently 89.29 (100 of 112). I aim to keep it there :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     274   72    49   102000

delta: $52,000
2024 balance: $3,668,000
2024 blue distance: $134,000
balance: $16,477,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.70 (1263 of 3029)

A farewell to 0th places

The last time I recorded a 0th place in an MTT NLHE was on October 5. The next time I'll register a 0th place is - drumroll please - never. How can I be so sure? Simply because I won't allow it to happen. From here on I'll exclusively enter tournaments which are on break and nearing the end of their late registration periods. That means that no matter how quickly I hit the rail, even if it's on my very first hand, I'll always receive an official place, since the late registration period will officially be over before I've even played a single hand.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     244   63   118        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     197   54    73        0

delta: $-100,000
2024 balance: $3,616,000
2024 blue distance: $186,000
balance: $16,425,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.68 (1262 of 3028)

A good poker year

The year is winding down, and it's been a good one for me, poker-wise. Barring a collapse, it will be the fifth best poker year of my career, profit-wise. Currently, my extrapolated profit for the year is a smidgen below four million, which would better last year's profit by nearly a million. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     368   99    96    64000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     302   72    89        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     280   72   114        0

delta: $-86,000
2024 balance: $3,716,000
2024 blue distance: $86,000
balance: $16,525,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.71 (1262 of 3026)

In the sweetness

I first came up with the phrase "in the sweetness" when I was playing sit and gos, but one can be in the sweetness when playing any poker style.

This is an excerpt from my May 19, 2019 post. Lately, I've been in the sweetness playing MTT NLHE tournaments. I've made the money in 15 of the last 19 I've entered, which is nearly at a 79% clip, close to double my lifetime average of 42%.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     325   81    74    71000
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     301   72    49   112000

delta: $83,000
2024 balance: $3,802,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,611,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.71 (1261 of 3023)

Poker parkour

This is all by way of trying to describe the kind of daring that at times is absolutely required when playing tournament poker. It's kind of like leaping from stone to stone across the Grand Canyon, when these stones are magically suspended in mid-air and don't even appear until after you've already started to jump towards where you hope the next one will be.

This is an excerpt from my July 29, 2017 post. In my luckiest hand of yesterday's session, I took a leap of faith with a pair of jacks, only to discover that I was up against an opponent who had a pair of aces. I saw the bottom of the Grand Canyon far beneath me, and was in freefall on the flop and the turn, but was miraculously saved by a stone materializing under my left foot - a jack on the river :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     317   81    11   209000

delta: $159,000
2024 balance: $3,719,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,528,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.67 (1259 of 3021)

Feeling like Conan

The movie "Conan the Barbarian" came out in 1982, thirty-seven years ago. I went to see it when it came out, and one particular montage has stuck with me all these years. Conan begins the movie as a small boy, who has become enslaved after the murder of his parents. He is set to work in a flour mill, which is manned by many slaves who push the spokes of a huge wheel which powers the grindstone. To show the passage of time, and also to show how big and strong Conan becomes, you see less and less slaves pushing the spokes over the years, until finally it's just Conan pushing, powering the mill all by himself.

I find this an apt metaphor for making a deep run in a poker tournament. When it begins, you're just one of many players, with a tiny stack. As time goes by, your stack grows and the number of remaining players shrinks. If you make it all the way, there's only you left, and you have all the chips :-)

This is an excerpt from my June 12, 2019 post. Yesterday, I felt like Conan again :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     250   63    69        0
MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     365   99     5   472000

delta: $372,000
2024 balance: $3,560,000
2024 blue distance: $0
balance: $16,369,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.66 (1258 of 3020)

The best time to join a tournament

I disagree with my earlier self. The best time to join a tournament is not "any time at all". I now firmly believe the best time is as late as possible.

This is an excerpt from my September 29, 2024 post. I haven't changed my mind since then. Moreover, this understanding has caused me to be more specific about my tournament selection criteria. I will only enter tournaments whose late registration periods contain a break in their final minutes. That way, I can join during the break, which guarantees that when the break ends, I'll have the full complement of starting chips to play with. The ironic thing about this is that if everyone followed my lead, the number of entries per tournament would be considerably smaller, and the payouts therefore considerably less. Thankfully, there are always plenty of players who are unwilling to wait that late before joining :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     270   72    70    77000

delta: $27,000
2024 balance: $3,188,000
2024 blue distance: $107,000
balance: $15,997,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.65 (1257 of 3018)

(Don't Go Back To) Showdown

The title of this post riffs on "(Don't Go Back To) Rockville", an R.E.M. song I like.

This is an excerpt from my February 18, 2013 post. Those were the days when I was playing cash games exclusively. Deciding whether to go to showdown in a tournament is quite different from deciding in a cash game. I've found that you can do quite well in tournaments going to showdown only sparingly. Yesterday, in the one tournament I played, at one point I'd only gone to showdown once (losing that pot), but had won five pots without going to showdown. I'm pretty sure that at the time the money bubble burst, I hadn't won a single pot at showdown.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     298   72    56    98000

delta: $48,000
2024 balance: $3,161,000
2024 blue distance: $134,000
balance: $15,970,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.63 (1256 of 3017)

A week away from the lake

Poker is the most relaxing thing I know how to do. Whenever I play it, I'm on vacation. I feel like I'm sitting in an Adirondack chair, with a beer on a table beside me and a novel in my hands, on the shore of a beautiful lake. I just want to stay there and never leave :-)

This is an excerpt from my November 14, 2019 post. I haven't played poker since last Tuesday. As today is Tuesday, that means I've been away from the lake for a week. This was due to having a surgical procedure last Wednesday, and recuperating from it. I'm happy to be back! I don't remember any salient details of last Tuesday's session, so I'll just report on the numbers.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       9     346   81    58   106000

delta: $56,000
2024 balance: $3,113,000
2024 blue distance: $182,000
balance: $15,922,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.61 (1255 of 3016)