A 1.4% rarity

Whenever I can't think of what to write about a session, I try to see if there's anything rare about it. If there is, that's what I write about :-) On Saturday night, I fired 4 bullets in a losing cause. The only thing remarkable about the one tournament I entered is that I was only above water at the end of a single hand. That's only happened to me 12 times in 858 MTT-R NLHE tournaments, which is just 1.4% of the time.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      53   12    24        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,422,000
2019 balance: $7,418,250
balance: $54,002,510

yabb

The first time I used this blog post title was on November 19, 2018; here's what I had to say:

Last night, my result was yabb - yet another bubble bubble. In other words, I finished two spots out of the money. I lasted longer than a bunch of the usual suspects, but another bunch lasted longer than I did. It's time to check the current value of my added on percentage; the answer: 55.01. I'd eventually like to get it down to 50.

Most of that applies equally well to last night's session. I'm happy to report that the value of my added on percentage is now down to 49.47 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    89      55   12    14        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,622,000
2019 balance: $7,618,250
balance: $54,202,510

47,326 folds

To be successful at poker, you have to do a lot of folding. I mean, an awful lot. I tallied up the numbers, and found that so far in my MTT-R NLHE career, I've folded 47,326 times in 57,074 hands. That means I'm folding at an 82.92% clip. Last night, I folded 50 times in 67 hands. Most people can't bring themselves to fold as often as they should. I'm probably one of those people. The good news is, I fold a lot more than most of my opponents :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    67      67   15     8   421000

delta: $321,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,772,000
2019 balance: $7,768,250
balance: $54,352,510

One rung to rule them all

Sometimes, the best thing I can write about a session is something I've already written. In such a case, it's hardly a crime to crib from myself. That may seem lazy, but I prefer to think of it as efficient :-)

I first used this blog post title just over a year ago, on April 17, 2018. Here's what I had to say:

As proud as I am of the frequency I make it under the lights, I'm just as proud of what I do once I get there. I generally ladder up. My ladder up average is just a squeak under one rung. Last night, I got under the lights again, and laddered up one place from 6th to 5th. That gave me an additional $199,000 in profit. Not too shabby :-)

Last night, I got under the lights again, and laddered up one place from 6th to 5th. That gave me an additional $160,000 in profit. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    24      67   15    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   123      61   15     5   831000

delta: $631,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,451,000
2019 balance: $7,447,250
balance: $54,031,510

Preemptive immediate service

This is the second time I've used this blog post title; the first was on December 31, 2016. I'm now going to quote from that post, which itself quoted from an earlier post:

The most memorable hand of last night's session, as is generally the case for memorable hands, was one that I lost :-) I was dealt pocket rockets (a pair of aces). An opponent acting before me bet big enough to put me all in if I called, and I did. When he turned over AJo (ace jack offsuit), I was very happy; I knew he was a big underdog. Running the numbers, he had only a 6.75% chance of winning. However, unfortunately for me, he received preemptive immediate service from the poker gods. What do I mean by that? First, here's the definition of immediate service (from my blog post of September 20, 2015):

One of my favorite poker commentators is Nick Wealthall. He provides commentary for online tournaments on PokerStars. One  phrase I really like which he uses quite often is "immediate service"; it refers to hitting a straight or flush draw as soon as possible, in other words on the turn.

With that in mind, preemptive immediate service is immediate service which comes on an even earlier street, i.e. on the flop.

Last night, I hit the rail when an opponent received preemptive immediate service. I was dealt pocket rockets, and he was dealt cowboys (pocket kings). I was an 81.71% favorite before the flop, but the flop had a king it, and I was suddenly drawing thin - 12.22%. The turn and river both bricked. That was the second time in the last three tournaments I went aces out against cowboys. Aces ouch :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      66   15    38        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    30      54   12    41        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,820,000
2019 balance: $6,816,250
balance: $53,400,510

10th career MTT-R NLHE aces out

I exited last night's tournament in almost the most painful way possible. I was dealt pocket rockets, and was way ahead through the turn. However, my opponent spiked a king on the river for a set of kings, and I was out of the tournament. Why was that only almost the most painful way to exit? For the simple reason that I lost to a two outer. The most painful way to exit a tournament is to lose to a one outer. That's happened to me twice before.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      59   12    35        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,120,000
2019 balance: $7,116,250
balance: $53,700,510

The streak is dead. Long live the streak!

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. Last night's tournament ended my streak of tournaments where I hit the rail with a premium hand, at 5 straight. That's the longest such streak I've ever had in my MTT-R NLHE career. That said, it's the kind of streak you don't really want to be on :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      80   18    25        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,220,000
2019 balance: $7,216,250
balance: $53,800,510

A very minor peak

Last night, in a losing cause, I suffered another freefall from the peak. It was a very minor peak, since it was the only point in the tournament when I was above water. For the fifth tournament in a row, I hit the rail with a really strong holding; here are my last five final hands:

Kc Ad
Qd Qc
Kd Kh
As Kd
Js Jh

I prefer going out with a bang :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      70   15    28        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,520,000
2019 balance: $7,516,250
balance: $54,100,510

Shoveapalooza

What do you do when hand after hand, one or more of your opponents goes all in? If you're like me, you fold, over and over again :-) Last night, in the second tournament I entered, one or more of my opponents went all in on the first 29 hands I played; it was a veritable shoveapalooza! I folded every time. The first time I saw a flop, the late registration period was actually over. You just don't see that every day. Unfortunately, despite my commendable self-control, I narrowly missed the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      86   18    48        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      58   12    15        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,720,000
2019 balance: $7,716,250
balance: $54,300,510

The hotball analogy

When I was a kid, I lived next door to an apple orchard. Besides selling apples and cider there, they stocked a truly excellent penny candy counter. Hotballs were one of my favorites. You had to be a little masochistic to love them, since they were so flaming hot. The thing was, they didn't stay as hot as they started out; that was their secret, and their saving grace. They got positively mild at the very end, and that was the hotball stage I liked the best. Of course, as soon as I finished one, I'd start right in on another, and have to undergo the initial shock and awe to my taste buds all over again :-)

What does this have to do with poker? Simply this - poker tournaments remind me of hotballs. They take a lot of work on your part to get them to the stage where you like them the best, but if and when you do get there, it's so totally worth it. Whenever a tournament is over, you discover you can't wait to go through all that agony one more time :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    46      77   18    32        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   146      67   15     3  2075000

delta: $1,675,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,920,000
2019 balance: $7,916,250
balance: $54,500,510

Tailfall

Tailfall is my neologism for freefall at the tail end of a tournament. In other words, the number of consecutive hand deltas at the end of the tournament which were either negative or zero. Every tournament where you don't come in first has a minimum tailfall count of 1. Every tournament where you come in first has a tailfall count of 0. Last night, I had a tailfall count of 11. That didn't bother me. I was happy to make the money for the second tournament in a row. I'm going for three in a row tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    93      51   12    10   348000

delta: $198,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,245,000
2019 balance: $6,241,250
balance: $52,825,510

Three twin killings

In baseball, a twin killing is a double play. In poker, a twin killing is a hand which escorts two players to the rail. Everyone who isn't one of the victims welcomes twin killings with open arms, since it either increases their chances of making the money, if the bubble hasn't burst yet, or greatly increases their chances of making a much larger profit, if it has. Last night, I was the beneficiary of three twin killings. The second one got me into the money. The third ensured I'd make at least $30,200 more in profit than I otherwise would have. I laddered up two more spots after that, and made a killing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   132      78   18     3  1833000

delta: $1,733,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,047,000
2019 balance: $6,043,250
balance: $52,627,510

yapw

Last night, I achieved (if that's the right word) yapw - yet another personal worst. For the first time ever in an MTT-R NLHE, I had a percentile less than 10. In the second tournament I entered, I finished 46th in a field of 51, for an impressively anemic percentile of 9.8. Why makes that number impressive? I shall tell you, grasshopper. Since you can only have an official percentile by outlasting the late registration period, and since there can be a fair number of players who drop out before late registration ends, to achieve such a low percentile requires one or both of the following:

1. not many players drop out before late registration ends
2. you hit the rail soon after late registration ends

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    32      65   15    31        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      51   12    46        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,314,000
2019 balance: $4,310,250
balance: $50,894,510

A bad call

Last night, for the second tournament in a row, I came close to making the money. Close, but no cigar. I didn't help my cause when I chased a flush on hand 59. An opponent I had covered went all in on the turn, and though I wasn't priced in to call, I stubbornly called anyway. I missed my flush, and went immediately from being a contender to being nearly an also-ran. Definitely a bad call. Back to the drawing board :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      58   12    17        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,664,000
2019 balance: $4,660,250
balance: $51,244,510

Premium fall-in holding

Before the money bubble bursts in a tournament, it's rarely a good idea to allow yourself to fall in. The reason is simple - by doing so, you put yourself completely at the mercy of fate. It's almost always better to go all in on your own terms, by backing a hand that's likely to be better than the random hand you get when you fall in. Last night, I allowed myself to fall in, and was lucky enough to receive a really premium fall-in holding - ATo (ace ten offsuit). Up against a single opponent who'd been dealt 75s (seven five suited), I was a 60.87% favorite before the flop, a 52.63% favorite after the flop, and a 68.18% favorite after the turn. However, my opponent spiked a flush on the river, and that was all she wrote.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      57   12    15        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,764,000
2019 balance: $4,760,250
balance: $51,344,510

I didn't mean to go to sea

When I was about ten or so, I devoured a series of children's books written by Arthur Ransome about the adventures of four young English siblings who loved to sail and who called themselves the Swallows and the Amazons. The title of one of the books was "We Didn't Mean to Go to Sea". Somehow the children ended up putting out to sea without really meaning to. Something very similar happened to me in last night's session. In the second tournament I entered, I ended up firing ten bullets without really meaning to :-)

Here are my holdings the five times I hit the felt in that tournament, followed by the number of players at showdown (including myself) and my percentage chance of winning the hand at the time I went all in:

hand 19: Qh Ac, 4, 25.20
hand 20: 9c 9d, 4, 32.76
hand 23: As 6c, 2,  6.82
hand 26: Jh Js, 4, 38.17
hand 44: 2c As, 4, 31.91

Firing ten bullets meant I spent half a million on a single tournament. Not very savvy.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    17      66   15    39        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      80   18    41        0

delta: $-600,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,864,000
2019 balance: $4,860,250
balance: $51,444,510

Punctuated equilibrium

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, it's got punctuated equilibrium written all over it. On virtually every hand, one of three things happened:

1. nothing
2. I won a significant amount of chips
3. I lost a significant amount of chips

I wrote these words more than six years ago, when I was still in my cash game NLHE phase, but they apply equally well to last night's MTT-R NLHE session. Punctuated equilibrium sessions are rare, but like all rare things, recur at regular, albeit widely-spaced, intervals :-) 

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      64   15    50        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,464,000
2019 balance: $5,460,250
balance: $52,044,510

yaps: nawtp

It's time for yet another poker statistic. I'm dubbing this one nawtp; it stands for "never above water tournament percentage". It's the percentage of tournaments where I never made it above water. I had another such tournament last night. My MTT-R NLHE nawtp is currently 17.37 (145 of 835 tournaments). That's pretty hefty, but it hasn't prevented me from making a killing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      48   12    35        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,664,000
2019 balance: $5,660,250
balance: $52,244,510

The first foot of runway

I've used this blog post title multiple times before, and I'm sure I'll be using it again. Last night, once more, I made the money by the skin of my teeth, finishing in the last paid place. It's an exhilarating feeling to land your plane on the first foot of runway. I'll take that outcome any day :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      53   12    12   308000

delta: $208,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,764,000
2019 balance: $5,760,250
balance: $52,344,510

Flow My Tears, the Policeman Said

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. I'm referring to two things:

1. the title of a science fiction novel by Philip K. Dick
2. the appearance of the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's tournament

Although I was never above water, I came very close to making the money. Maybe tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      62   15    18        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,556,000
2019 balance: $5,552,250
balance: $52,136,510

Nothing to see here

Sometimes, poker sessions defy all my attempts to find something interesting to say about them. That's the case with last night's session. It wasn't horrible, and it wasn't outstanding. Two bits of trivia:

1. my blue distance surpassed thee million, as I'd been expecting
2. I played the same number of hands as the place where I finished

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      57   12    41        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,756,000
2019 balance: $5,752,250
balance: $52,336,510

The land of the 44s

Last night, I came in 30th of 54, for a percentile of 44.44..., aka the land of the 44s. On the final hand, I was up against three opponents, and couldn't beat any of them. My blue distance is now within whispering distance of 3 million. It's time for a big win :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      54   12    30        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,956,000
2019 balance: $5,952,250
balance: $52,536,510

A tale of two tournaments

Looking solely at their outcomes, the two tournaments I played last night could hardly be more similar. In the first, I came in 36th of 65. In the second, I came in 37th of 66. However, looking at the details, they could hardly be more different. Here's a summary:

tournament 1:

- I only lasted 35 hands
- I only won 2 of them
- I was never above water
- on the final hand, I was drawing dead after the turn

tournament 2:

- I lasted 60 hands
- I won 8 of them
- I was above water for 50 of them
- on the final hand, I was a 72.73% favorite after the turn

I realize I need to count my blessings, however. I'm up over 6 million on the year :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    35      65   15    36        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      66   15    37        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,056,000
2019 balance: $6,052,250
balance: $52,636,510

Under the lights

It's been a long time since I've been able to use this blog post title - the better part of a month. Before last night's first tournament, I'd played 29 consecutive MTT-R NLHEs where I failed to reach the final table. That's just one shy of my all-time record. I celebrated the end of the streak by playing a second tournament. I wanted to see if I could stay in the sweetness. Alas, I couldn't :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    90      74   15     7   698000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      56   12    27        0

delta: $398,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,256,000
2019 balance: $6,252,250
balance: $52,836,510

The land of the 78s

I always enjoy it when one of the poker statistics I calculate ends in a recurring decimal. This usually gives rise to a blog post with a title of the form "The land of the ___s", where the blank is filled in with the recurring decimal. The very first such blog post, appropriately, was titled "The land of the ones". Last night, I had another big goodbye, i.e. a tournament where the largest absolute value hand delta occurred on the final hand. I got curious to know what percentage of big goodbyes come from tournaments where I failed to make the money. The answer? Currently, 156 of 198 tournaments, or 78.787878... percent. In other words, the land of the 78s :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    31      56   12    30        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,858,000
2019 balance: $5,854,250
balance: $52,438,510

Top 20 tournament-ending bad beat

Last night, on the final hand of the session, I suffered a top 20 tournament-ending bad beat. An opponent hit a three outer on the river to send me to the rail. To add a little more sting, the river card was an ace. Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    71     109   27    31        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    28      67   15    36        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      60   12    18        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,958,000
2019 balance: $5,954,250
balance: $52,538,510

Another phantom rung

Last night, I finished in 15th place. In general, that's a fine thing. Unfortunately, in this case, only 12 places were paid. That got me to wondering what the minimum number of entries is for PokerStars to pay 15 places. I looked it up; the answer is 61. Since there were only 50 entries in last night's tournament, the only thing my finish achieved was another phantom rung :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      50   12    15        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,358,000
2019 balance: $6,354,250
balance: $52,938,510

Mendoza redux

Last night, in the second tournament I played, I may have set a record for futility. I was below the Mendoza line again. I fired five bullets, and only won a single hand. The session had two consolations:

1. I made the money in the first tournament I played
2. I increased my refusing to add on streak to 57 straight tournaments

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      92   27    26   223000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    35      51   12    28        0

delta: $-127,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,458,000
2019 balance: $6,454,250
balance: $53,038,510

Swiss army tournament

I only played one tournament last night, but it ticked a lot of boxes:

in the money? check
whaleback? check
freefall from the peak? check
century? check

Just call it the Swiss army tournament :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   100      68   15    12   414000

delta: $214,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,585,000
2019 balance: $6,581,250
balance: $53,165,510