Nose million

The most striking thing about last night's session is that it brought my 2018 balance up to 6 million on the nose. I hereby dub that a nose million. That got me curious to see how many nose millions I've had in my career. The answer? Drumroll, please, while I check the archives ...

One.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    87      69   15     9   476000

delta: $376,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,723,500
2018 balance: $6,000,000
balance: $51,513,260

Two whalebacks

Last night, I had two whalebacks. A whaleback is my latest neo neo :-) It's a tournament where all the above water hands are contiguous. Whalebacks are pretty rare, and whalebacks where you only had one underwater hand (necessarily your last hand of the tournament) are rare indeed. My first whaleback last night was of the rarer variety.

My take on whalebacks is that they're a sign you're playing well :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      75   15    42        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      69   15    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,347,500
2018 balance: $5,624,000
balance: $51,137,260

Blanked

Last night, in the second tournament I entered, I didn't win a single pot. That's never fun. In 389 MTT-R NLHEs, I've been blanked like that 11 times. It's bound to happen every now and then; there's no avoiding it. To make matters worse, I was trigger happy, firing six bullets in that tournament. The only way to fire that many is to be playing too friskily. I promise to play much tighter tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      75   15    58        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    25      78   18    55        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,547,500
2018 balance: $5,824,000
balance: $51,337,260

Bullet bulletin

It's time to take a look at the relationship between bullets fired and profit again. I do this periodically. Here are my current numbers:

bullets  count        profit

      2    107   $39,296,500
      4     59   $10,497,000
      3    115    $2,513,000
     11      1      $413,000
     12      1       $10,000
      1      1      $-50,000
     10      1     $-500,000
      6     14     $-557,000
      5     50     $-590,000
     13      1     $-650,000
      9      6   $-1,212,000
      8      7   $-2,537,000
      7     24   $-6,686,000

If I never add on again, it'll be too soon :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      64   15    28        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,947,500
2018 balance: $6,224,000
balance: $51,737,260

One poker selfie night

There are just as many ways to miss the money in a tournament as there are ways to make it. One of the ways to miss is to shoot up the leaderboard early on, then slowly fade away. That's what happened to me last night. It was a one poker selfie night; I snapped a picture of the leaderboard when I was in 7th place in a field of 47 with 12 minutes left in the late registration period.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    69      75   15    27        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,047,500
2018 balance: $6,324,000
balance: $51,837,260

yapbtt

Last night, I had yapbtt - yet another personal borscht top ten. I had the ninth lowest ROI for an MTT-R NLHE where I made a profit. Here are the top ten:

    roi    delta   wagered    date

 1.6667  $10,000  $600,000    2018-01-26b
 3.7143  $13,000  $350,000    2017-08-08b
12.3333  $37,000  $300,000    2018-02-19a
13.6000  $34,000  $250,000    2018-01-10b
14.3333  $43,000  $300,000    2018-02-05a
14.4000  $36,000  $250,000    2017-11-05c
18.0000  $45,000  $250,000    2018-02-02a
18.0000  $54,000  $300,000    2017-08-01a
18.4000  $46,000  $250,000    2018-03-25a
19.4286  $68,000  $350,000    2017-07-17b

In other news, I've now added on in eight straight tournaments. The upshot? You should never add on, except when you should :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      71   15    13   296000

delta: $46,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,247,500
2018 balance: $6,524,000
balance: $52,037,260

The magnificent seven

I dug a little deeper into my poker data and discovered the most interesting factoid of all: the total profit of my seven most profitable sessions is nearly half my career profit! That's amazing, considering I've played 2,435 sessions. What this highlights is how important the outlier sessions are. You'll have to slog through hundreds of mediocre sessions to achieve an outlier, but when you do, it's totally worth it. All hail the magnificent seven!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    32      70   15    33        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,201,500
2018 balance: $6,478,000
balance: $51,991,260

Where my bread is buttered

I just noticed a really interesting factoid lurking in my poker data. Stated bluntly, I only make a profit on sessions where I earn a million play dollars or more in profit. Even though these sessions are rare, they're where my bread is buttered. Here are the numbers:

number of sessions: 2,434
number of one million plus sessions: 27
number of less than one million sessions: 2,407
delta of one million plus sessions: $55,062,225
delta of less than one million sessions: $-3,009,707

The good news is, as long as I keep doing what I'm doing, I'll continue to make money hand over fist :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      54   12     8   450000

delta: $200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,351,500
2018 balance: $6,628,000
balance: $52,141,260

Zeno's non-paradox

Last night, I lost half the amount I lost the night before. This got me to thinking. If that kept happening every night, would there be a cap on how much money I'd lose, and if so, what would it be? This reminded me of Zeno's paradox: 

In a race, the quickest runner can never overtake the slowest, since the pursuer must first reach the point whence the pursued started, so that the slower must always hold a lead.

— as recounted by Aristotle, Physics VI:9, 239b15

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Achilles_and_the_tortoise

In the case of the poker problem, I quickly realized that the solution is simple and non-paradoxical. The answer? Yes, there is a cap, and it's twice the amount lost on the first night. The cap itself is never actually reached, since each night, the amount spent is half the remaining distance to the cap.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      74   15    51        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      70   15    25        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,151,500
2018 balance: $6,428,000
balance: $51,941,260

Baby cowboys cracked

Last night, on the final hand of the second tournament I entered, my baby cowboys were cracked. That is to say, I was dealt pocket jacks, but they failed to hold up. Aside from the normal pain of hitting the rail in a tournament, I had the additional pain of seeing my odds of winning steadily increase as the final hand played out. Preflop, I was a 67.48% favorite. After the flop, I was a 75.35% favorite. After the turn, I was an 88.64% favorite. However, my opponent hit a 5 outer on the river, and that was all she wrote.

An interesting oddity about last night's session is that the number 37 figured prominently; I lasted 37 hands in both tournaments, and came in 37th place in the first one.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      79   18    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      72   15    53        0

delta: $-600,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,451,500
2018 balance: $6,728,000
balance: $52,241,260

Two quad night

The title of this post should actually be "Two quads night", but I wanted it to sound more like "Three Dog Night", the name of a rock band from the 70s, so I de-pluralized it :-) Technically, the odds of getting quads (four of a kind) in hold'em are 1 in 595, but that's assuming you never fold. No one could possibly make a profit by never folding, so the actual odds are much less than that. I've now played 27,823 hands of MTT-R NLHE, and have gotten quads 17 times, which translates to 1 in 1,637. Last night, I got quads twice. Not only that, each was an instance of what I call "magic quads". Magic quads are similar to magic flushes; only one of your hole cards contributes. The first time, I was dealt T3o (ten three offsuit) and made quad threes. Just two hands later, I was dealt A5o (ace five offsuit) and made quad fives. Those two huge pots propelled me to the final table.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   112      72   15     3  2064000

delta: $1,814,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,051,500
2018 balance: $7,328,000
balance: $52,841,260

An alphabet of millions

Last night, for the 26th time in my career, I made of profit of at least one million play dollars for the session. My overall balance topped 51 million for the first time. Once again, all is right in my poker world :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    99      73   15     4  1299000

delta: $1,199,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,237,500
2018 balance: $5,514,000
balance: $51,027,260

Kicked out

Last night, I hit the rail in the second tournament I entered when my AQs (ace queen suited) ran into an AKo (ace king offsuit). At showdown, my opponent and I both had a high card ace, but he outkicked me. So you could say I was kicked out of the tournament :-) Strangely enough, that was actually the second time that tournament that I ran an ace queen into an ace king. Ouch!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      55   12    27        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      61   15    24        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,038,500
2018 balance: $4,315,000
balance: $49,828,260

Mr. Blue Sky

...
Hey there, Mr. Blue
We're so pleased to be with you
Look around, see what you do
Everybody smiles at you
...

excerpt from the chorus of "Mr Blue Sky" by Electric Light Orchestra

Last night, I became Mr. Blue again. I brought my career balance up to a new all-time high, topping 50 play million for the first time.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   156      72   15     2  3911000

delta: $3,811,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,238,500
2018 balance: $4,515,000
balance: $50,028,260

yat2

Last night, I achieved yat2 - yet another top 2. I wagered the second highest amount ever on an MTT-R NLHE where I made a profit. Here are the top 10:

$600,000   2018-01-26b
$550,000   2018-03-16a
$450,000   2018-01-08a
$450,000   2017-07-25b
$450,000   2017-06-22a
$400,000   2018-01-14a
$350,000   2017-09-11a
$350,000   2017-08-08b
$350,000   2017-07-17b
$350,000   2017-07-10b

At the risk of jinxing myself, I've now made the money in three straight MTT-R NLHEs.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   113      80   18     6   96300

delta: $413,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,427,500
2018 balance: $704,000
balance: $46,217,260

Pots lost at showdown

One of the key stats the PokerStars software keeps track of is pots won at showdown. The number of showdown hands is also displayed, as well as the percentage of showdown hands won. I've started to look at pots lost at showdown. Last night, I lost just one of the four hands I took to showdown. For practical purposes, that's the minimum number of pots you can lose at showdown in a tournament, since the final hand of any tournament where you don't come in first will produce a pot lost at showdown.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      69   15    15   321000

delta: $171,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,014,500
2018 balance: $291,000
balance: $45,804,260

Converse queries

Some data queries come in natural pairs which are converses of each other. In my most recent post, the data I was interested in was the result set of the following query:

select num_hands,delta,concat(poker_session_date,tournament_letter)
from poker_sessions
where poker_style = 6 and poker_flavor = 3 and winnings = 0
order by num_hands desc,id desc;

In plain English, this query can be paraphrased thus: "show me the MTT-R NLHE tournaments where I failed to make the money, sorted in descending order by the number of hands played". When you fail to make the money, the more hands you played, the more impressive it is.

Here's the converse query:

select num_hands,delta,concat(poker_session_date,tournament_letter)
from poker_sessions
where poker_style = 6 and poker_flavor = 3 and winnings > 0
order by num_hands,id desc;

The plain English for this one: "show me the MTT-R NLHE tournaments where I made the money, sorted by the number of hands played". When you make the money, the less hands you played, the more impressive it is. Here are the top ten results (including ties) of the converse query:

hands    delta       date

   43   $174,000  2017-06-20b
   49    $68,000  2018-03-14a
   65    $50,000  2017-08-25b
   67   $198,000  2017-11-08a
   68   $162,000  2018-03-10a
   70   $356,000  2017-09-25a
   72    $-1,000  2017-07-10b
   74    $34,000  2018-01-10b
   74   $243,000  2017-05-31a
   76    $37,000  2018-02-19a
   76   $467,000  2018-01-12b

As you can see, last night's tournament clocked in at the number two spot.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      64   15    14   218000

delta: $68,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,843,500
2018 balance: $120,000
balance: $45,633,260

yatt

Last night, I posted yatt - yet another top ten. It was a personal borscht kind of top ten, but still :-) I tied for the tenth most hands played in an MTT-R NLHE where I failed to make the money. Here are the top ten, including ties:

hands    delta       date

  101  $-150,000  2017-06-01a
   98  $-250,000  2017-11-27a
   95  $-100,000  2017-10-14b
   95  $-150,000  2017-07-13d
   94  $-200,000  2018-01-19b
   93  $-200,000  2017-12-14a
   91  $-250,000  2017-06-06a
   89  $-100,000  2017-12-17a
   89  $-100,000  2017-07-21a
   88  $-150,000  2018-03-13a
   88  $-350,000  2017-11-30a

My blue distance is currently $3,574,000, which is not too far from its all time high of $3,971,000, set six sessions ago. I'm doing my best to keep it under 4 million. My 2018 balance, at just barely over a bullet's worth, is on life support. I ain't afeared, though :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    88      58   12    21        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,775,500
2018 balance: $52,000
balance: $45,565,260

The land of the big goodbyes

I've exited the last three tournaments I've played with big goodbyes. This made me curious to find out what my big goodbye percentage is, so of course I wrote a utility to figure that out. More precisely, I augmented an existing utility. The answer? 23.58. I've ended 87 of the 369 MTT-R NLHEs I've played with big goodbyes. Last night's exit was pretty painful; on the last hand, I was a 81.82% favorite after the turn to win the pot.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      46   12    36        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,925,500
2018 balance: $202,000
balance: $45,715,260

Another personal borscht

Last night, in the second tournament I played, I registered another personal borscht. The worst part was that I didn't win a single hand. The best part was that I lost the least chips per hand of any MTT-R NLHE where I failed to win a single hand. That almost certainly wouldn't have been the case had I added on.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    10      78   18    52        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      62   15    29        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,125,500
2018 balance: $402,000
balance: $45,915,260

Bubbling the first money jump

Just as there are different ways to exit a tournament, there are different ways to bubble. Bubbling the tournament itself is the least desirable, since there's no profit involved. I prefer to make a profit when I bubble :-) That's what I did last night; I bubbled the first money jump, so I only min cashed. I only fired 3 bullets, though, so I made a tidy profit.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      67   15    13   312000

delta: $162,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,375,500
2018 balance: $652,000
balance: $46,165,260

5 slicks

Last night, after 22 straight tournaments where I failed to get under the lights, I finally got under them again. I did it largely on the strength of the good cards I was dealt, most notably 5 big slicks. If I hadn't been able to make the money with luck like that, it would've been a pretty sorry state of affairs. I started the final table in sixth place and was able to ladder up two spots.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      80   18    43        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   124      60   12     4  1235000

delta: $835,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,213,500
2018 balance: $490,000
balance: $46,003,260

Worst 13 bagger ever

When you're in a losing streak, it's natural to wonder where it ranks in your all-time list. For instance, if I've lost four sessions in a row, I like to generate a list of the sums of the deltas of every four consecutive sessions, sort that list, then see where my current losing streak places. If I lose the next session, my interest will still be engaged, and I'll generate a list of the sums of the deltas of every five consecutive sessions, etc. As soon as a losing streak ends, however, it falls off my radar screen. Perhaps it shouldn't, though. In the case where I end one losing streak only to shortly begin another, it's quite possible I can be achieving new personal worsts without realizing it. Recently, that was actually briefly the case :-) From February 22 through March 3, I lost nine sessions in a row. I won the March 4 session, but since then, I've lost three sessions in a row. Those 13 sessions, which are the last 13 I've played, comprise my worst 13 bagger ever; in that stretch, I've lost a whopping 3,343,000 play dollars. My blue distance is even larger, currently standing at 3,971,000 play dollars. I'll be very surprised if I manage to keep my blue distance below four million before I turn things around.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      68   15    25        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,378,500
2018 balance: $-345,000
balance: $45,168,260

Underwater

With last night's losing session, my 2018 balance got underwater for the first time since January 15. I fired 7 bullets, which is probably too many for a single tournament. I hit the felt 3 times. The reason I only played one tournament was that I took a break to play online chess, and went on a bit of a chess binge.  When the dust cleared, it was time to go to bed :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    27      66   15    42        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,528,500
2018 balance: $-195,000
balance: $45,318,260

The highbye

As I've said before, there are many ways to exit a tournament. One of the rarest is what I call the highbye. It's when you lose all your chips in a single hand immediately after your stack has reached a new high. Of the 361 MTT-R NLHE tournaments I've played, only four have ended in highbyes. As you may have guessed, that included last night's tournament :-( At least I went out with a premium holding - AKs (ace king suited).

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      71   15    22        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,878,500
2018 balance: $155,000
balance: $45,668,260

Two out of three ain't bad

Last night, I played three tournaments, and made the money in two of them. Not only is two out of three not bad, it's downright phenomenal when you consider how poor my results have been lately. The first money finish halted a streak of 15 straight finishes out of the money, a personal worst. If I never have another losing streak like that again, it'll be too soon :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      66   15    15   361000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    20      83   18    55        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   126      60   12    10   346000

delta: $257,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,028,500
2018 balance: $305,000
balance: $45,818,260

Double worst

Last night, I set two new personal worsts:

1. my blue distance reached a new all-time high of $3,578,000, besting the previous record of $3,543,654 which it reached on September 22, 2016

2. I recorded the worst nine bagger of my career, during which I had no winning sessions and lost $2,950,000, besting the previous record of $2,150,000 reached on December 19, 2017

I probably also set a record for the most sessions in a row where I set a personal worst of some sort, but didn't have the heart to investigate that theory.

For all that, I still have a minuscule profit on the year; at $48,000, it's less than a single bullet :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      70   15    28        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      76   18    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      66   15    39        0

delta: $-650,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,771,500
2018 balance: $48,000
balance: $45,561,260

BBexit

No, the title of this blog post isn't a typo. It's just another neo neo (neostreet neologism) :-) BBexit is my shorthand for a bad beat exit, when you hit the rail in a tournament on a bad beat. This happened to me on Thursday night. As an aside, I wasn't able to play poker last night due to a power outage. How bad was the bad beat which took me to the rail? Pretty bad! I'd been dealt a pair of queens, and called all in before the flop. I was up against two opponents, both of whom had an unsuited king. That improved my odds substantially, since they each held one of the outs of the other. After the turn, I was an 85.71% favorite, but a king fell on the river. I have a gut feeling those were the best odds I've ever had on a BBexit, and they were almost certainly the best odds I've ever had on a BBexit where three players (including me) went to showdown.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      82   18    34        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,421,500
2018 balance: $698,000
balance: $46,211,260

Bubbles and bubble bubbles

When you come in one place out of the money, you've bubbled. When you come in two places out of the money, you've bubbled the bubble. Last night, I bubbled the bubble. The night before, I also bubbled the bubble in the first tournament I played. These near misses made me curious about how much money I've lost on MTT-R NLHE bubbles and bubble bubbles. The answer:

$-1,500,000  bubbles
$-1,450,000  bubble bubbles

$-2,950,000  total

My personal worst fest continues; I've just achieved (if that's the correct word) my worst seven bagger ever.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      76   18    20        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,571,500
2018 balance: $848,000
balance: $46,361,260