Saved by zero

Last night, I had a spin and go gorge-fest. I played 18 of them. I can safely say that I've had my fill of them for the foreseeable future. My spin and go balance is now exactly zero, and it's a telling number. I've played 102 spin and gos in my career, and it's clear that if I can't make a profit in that number of tournaments, I'm never going to make a profit. So you could say I've been "saved by zero" from losing money on spin and gos :-)

This is an excerpt from my September 26, 2016 post. When I looked at the breakdown of my 2025 results by style and flavor this morning, I had another "saved by zero" moment.

    delta  count  style  flavor
=========  =====  =====  =============================
       $0    232  MTT    No Limit Hold'em
 $-29,000      8  MTT    Limit Razz
 $-45,000      3  MTT    Limit 7 Card Stud
$-117,000      8  MTT    Limit Stud Hi/Lo
$-175,000      7  MTT    Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball 

The verdict? The only flavor of MTT I should ever play is NLHE.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     298   72    74        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     381   99    99    67000
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     307   72   120        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     316   81   179        0

delta: $-133,000
2025 balance: $-366,000
2025 blue distance: $366,000
balance: $15,931,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.26 (1364 of 3306)

Preemptive immediate service

First, here's the definition of immediate service (from my blog post of September 20, 2015):

One of my favorite poker commentators is Nick Wealthall. He provides commentary for online tournaments on PokerStars. One  phrase I really like which he uses quite often is "immediate service"; it refers to hitting a straight or flush draw as soon as possible, in other words on the turn.

With that in mind, preemptive immediate service is immediate service which comes on an even earlier street, i.e. on the flop.

This is an excerpt from my April 25, 2019 post. In the last tournament I played yesterday, I hit the rail very early on. On my final hand, I was dealt pocket queens, and called a preflop bet which put me all in. My opponent turned over A7o (ace seven offsuit), and I was a sizeable favorite to win the pot, with a 71% chance. Unfortunately for me, my opponent received preemptive immediate service on the flop, pairing both his ace and his seven. I was now an underdog, and had only an 8% chance to win. My opponent's two pair held up, and I was gone in a New York minute.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     239   63   106        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     332   81    41   131000
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     209   54   157        0

delta: $-19,000
2025 balance: $-936,000
2025 blue distance: $936,000
balance: $15,361,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.26 (1333 of 3231)

McMansioned

"McMansioned" is ... what has been done to you when your full house has lost to a better one.

This is an excerpt from my February 18, 2011 post. In yesterday's session, I got McMansioned in an especially brutal way. When the money bubble was close to bursting, I was so short-stacked that my only realistic chance of making the money was to fold every marginal hand, and hope that the tournament shed players faster than I was shedding chips. :-) As it turned out, every hand I was dealt from that point on was marginal, and I soon fell in. On my final hand, I was dealt an eight and another card which I don't recall. An eight and a jack showed up in the flop, the turn was another eight, and the river was a jack. This gave me a full house, eights full of jacks. Really lucky, right? Sure; not as lucky, however, as the player who'd been dealt pocket jacks, giving him a full house, jacks full of eights. I exited as the bubble boy, missing the money by a single spot.

In other news, I decided a while ago to post much less frequently, but not to mothball this blog completely.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     284   72    73        0

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-850,000
2025 blue distance: $850,000
balance: $15,447,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.29 (1321 of 3199)

Poker interruptus

I've used this title several times before. Last night, I experienced poker interruptus once again. It's never fun. This time, instead of being due to a power outage, it was due to my internet connection going down.

This is an excerpt from my January 24, 2019 post. Yesterday, in the only tournament I played, my internet connection went down after I'd already made the money. It happened in the middle of a hand where I'd been dealt pocket cowboys, and called a preflop bet which put me all in. I never got to see if I won that hand or not. I'm guessing not, for one of the following reasons:

1. there were additional bets made after my connection dropped, which would have caused the PokerStars software to change my status to "sitting out", mucking my hand automatically

2. I think the PokerStars software may have changed my status to "sitting out" even if no additional bets were made, due to detecting that my connection had dropped

Fortunately, these "poker interruptus" occurrences are exceedingly rare.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     310   81    45   122000    48

delta: $72,000
2025 balance: $-961,000
2025 blue distance: $961,000
balance: $15,336,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1308 of 3157)

The hateful eight

I've never seen Quentin Tarantino's "The Hateful Eight", but that won't stop me from appropriating its title, yet again :-) In this case, the hateful eight are the eight hands I played in the first tournament I entered yesterday. It was the smallest number of hands I've played in a tournament since I started manually recording the minimum viable hand data. One again, I was dealt baby cowboys on my last hand, and they rode off into the sunset. I fared much better in yesterday's second tournament, making the money. It was only a min cash, but beggars can't be choosy :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       ?    ?     ?        0     8
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     364   99    97    64000    29

delta: $-36,000
2025 balance: $-1,033,000
2025 blue distance: $1,033,000
balance: $15,264,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.41 (1307 of 3156)

Baby cowboys into the sunset

"Baby cowboys" is my nickname for pocket jacks. Last night, my baby cowboys rode off into the sunset. Although that makes for a good movie ending, it's not what you're hoping for when playing poker.

This is an excerpt from my April 4, 2022 post. In the one tournament I played yesterday, I only lasted 10 hands. I had one premium hand dealt to me, baby cowboys. Unfortunately for me, it was on the tenth hand. Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     248   63   137        0    10

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-997,000
2025 blue distance: $997,000
balance: $15,300,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.41 (1306 of 3154)

Further refinement of the magic minimum

It's a given that the more hands you play in a tournament, the better your chances are of making the money. It would be neat if there were a magic number of hands which, if you managed to achieve it, would guarantee that you made the money. Of course, there's no such number ...

This is an excerpt from my February 13, 2025 post. I call this number the magic minimum. While it's true that there's no such number in perpetuity, it's also true that at any particular point in time, there is such a number, even though its usefulness is limited, since it only applies to past data, and won't necessarily be true for future data. Over time, the magic minimum will gradually increase; it can never decrease. Here's the definition of the magic minimum: find the maximum number of hands played in the tournaments where you failed to make the money, and add 1 :-) Currently, based on the hand data I've collected so far, the magic minimum is 35.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     394   99   154        0    16

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-947,000
2025 blue distance: $947,000
balance: $15,350,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.42 (1306 of 3153)

Profitable and unprofitable months

One month is a good length of time for an observation window. I've now played online poker in 190 distinct months. 122 of them were profitable. This year, although I'm still in the red, at least I'm trending upwards. No matter what happens in today's session, this month will still be a profitable one :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     340   81    96        0    34
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     322   81   119        0    25

delta: $-100,000
2025 balance: $-897,000
2025 blue distance: $897,000
balance: $15,400,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1306 of 3152)

Three call ins and a fall in

It's rare for me to go all in to open the betting on a street. When all my chips go into the middle, the most common reason is that I called a bet that was at least as big as my chip stack; that's what I call a "call in".  It's also rare for me to allow my stack to get so short that it gets eaten up by the forced bets before the hole cards are even dealt, with no volition on my part; that's what I call a "fall in". Last night, I had three call ins and a fall in. I was lucky enough to survive the fall in and the first two call ins. That helped me last long enough to reach the fifth money jump above a min cash.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     309   81    31   135000    52

delta: $85,000
2025 balance: $-797,000
2025 blue distance: $797,000
balance: $15,500,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1306 of 3150)

KK KO'd

I have enough hand data now to notice some anomalies. One of the glaring ones is my winning percentage with cowboys (pocket kings). It's  as low as it can possibly be. I've received them 3 times in 827 hands, and have lost at showdown each time. Let's just say my cowboys are getting KO'd. In other news, I failed to complete a turducken on Sunday. Time to start a new streak :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     471  117   145        0    22

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-882,000
2025 blue distance: $882,000
balance: $15,415,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1305 of 3149)

Looking for a turducken

On Friday, I completed my first hambone of the year. My streak of consecutive in the money finishes is now at four, and still alive. If I finish in the money in the first tournament I play today, the streak will improve to five, and still be alive. I've decided to call such a streak a turducken, since it's two better than a turkey :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     237   63    42    99000    38

delta: $49,000
2025 balance: $-832,000
2025 blue distance: $832,000
balance: $15,465,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1305 of 3148)

Looking for a hambone

I love poker slang, and slang in general. It's fun to create new poker slang, and also fun to borrow known slang terms from non-poker contexts and use them in a poker context. In bowling, three consecutive strikes is a turkey. In poker, I define a turkey to be three consecutive tournaments where I finish in the money. Yesterday, I completed my third turkey of the year. In bowling, four consecutive strikes is a hambone. If I finish in the money in the first tournament I play today, I'll complete my first hambone of the year :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     313   81    79    68000    28
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     340   81    73    74000    30

delta: $42,000
2025 balance: $-881,000
2025 blue distance: $881,000
balance: $15,416,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1304 of 3147)

Under the lights

Yesterday I had a nice rebound from the session before. I got under the lights (i.e., made it to the final table) for the second time this year. That extrapolates to 14 times for the year, which is on a par with what I had in 2023 and 2024. Getting under the lights never gets old :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     211   54     9   194000    60

delta: $144,000
2025 balance: $-923,000
2025 blue distance: $923,000
balance: $15,374,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.40 (1302 of 3145)

None and done

On Tuesday I played three tournaments, and missed the money by a country mile in all of them. Not only that, they were three of the shortest tournaments I've played in recent memory. To top it all off, I failed to win a single pot in the shortest of the three. That's only the second time that's happened in the 22 tournaments I've played since I started manually recording the minimum viable poker hand data. I call that a none and done tournament :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     249   63   136        0    12
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     325   81   137        0    15
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     259   72   125        0     9

delta: $-150,000
2025 balance: $-1,067,000
2025 blue distance: $1,067,000
balance: $15,230,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.38 (1301 of 3144)

Lion or lamb

When a tournament approaches the money bubble, every remaining player must decide if they want to play like a lion or play like a lamb. Lions are going for the money up top; lambs are just going for a min cash. Interestingly, there's no hard and fast answer to the problem of how one should play. Many times, I'm content to be a lamb, and try to fold my way into the money. However, many other times I insist on being a lion ...

This is an excerpt from my July 20, 2020 post. In the final hand of yesterday's session, I insisted on being a lion. I'd been dealt 97o (nine seven offsuit), and an eight and a ten showed up in the flop, giving me an open-ended straight draw. All my chips went into the middle, but I bricked on the turn and the river, and missed the money by four spots. Still and all, I have no regrets.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     375   99    61   112000    39
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     205   54    58        0    25

delta: $12,000
2025 balance: $-917,000
2025 blue distance: $917,000
balance: $15,380,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.42 (1301 of 3141)

The chicken or the egg?

There are 1,326 possible starting hands in Texas Hold'em, 60 of which are premium ones. That means that players can expect to be dealt a premium hand roughly once every 22 hands. Of course, premium hands don't always come smoothly, but over time, they achieve this ratio. Looking at the hand data I've collected so far, I can see that it's difficult to make the money if you aren't dealt a single premium hand in the course of a tournament. Of the four tournaments where this has happened to me, I only made the money in one. There's more than one way to look at this, however. It could certainly be the case that the lack of premium hands played a large part in my missing the money. On the other hand, it could also be the case that missing the money played a large part in my not receiving premium hands, since missing the money means I played fewer hands than I would have otherwise, and the fewer hands that are played, the greater the chances of not receiving a single premium hand. This a variation on the old conundrum "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?". Be that as it may, whichever came first, it makes no difference to the bottom line :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     428  117   178        0    17

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-929,000
2025 blue distance: $929,000
balance: $15,368,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.41 (1300 of 3139)

A folding machine

I played three tournaments yesterday, and made the money in the third one. Interestingly, that was the only one where I didn't get dealt a premium hand. In fact, most of the hands I was dealt that tournament were crap. That led to my setting a new record for percentage of hands I folded before the flop - over 91. I was a folding machine, but was able to min cash nonetheless.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     422   99   118        0    23
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     338   81   120        0    24
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     322   81    75    70000    34

delta: $-80,000
2025 balance: $-879,000
2025 blue distance: $879,000
balance: $15,418,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1300 of 3138)

Rockets into the sunset

It always hurts when you've been dealt pocket aces and they get cracked. It hurts even more when you get bounced out of a tournament that way. That's what happened to me yesterday, on the final hand of the second tournament I played. I used to call that occurrence "aces out", but now I call it "rockets into the sunset". When the poker gods see fit to send your rockets into the sunset, you know it's time to quit playing for the rest of the day.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     265   72    92        0    30
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     406   99   153        0    17

delta: $-100,000
2025 balance: $-799,000
2025 blue distance: $799,000
balance: $15,498,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1299 of 3135)

Refining a magic minimum

Two posts ago, I stated that my magic minimum number of hands to play to virtually assure me of making the money is forty. It turns out I was a little bit off. I now believe this magic number is actually 35. Since I started manually recording hand data, I've played in 11 tournaments, making the money in five of them. In all of those five, I played at least 35 hands. In all six of the tournaments where I missed the money, I played at most 27 hands. If the maximum number of hands I've played in tournaments where I missed the money stays below the minimum number of hands I've played in tournaments where I made the money, that minimum number will truly be magic :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     320   81    95        0    27

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-699,000
2025 blue distance: $699,000
balance: $15,598,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1299 of 3133)

A tale of two pocks

In the one tournament I played yesterday, I was dealt pocks twice when the money bubble was about to burst. On hand 28, I was dealt cowboys (pocket kings), went all in with them, and was a heavy favorite; however, the river did me in. The only thing that prevented me from hitting the rail was the fact that I had more chips at the start of the hand than the opponent who called me had. On hand 34, I was dealt pocket threes and was so short-stacked I fell in. Mercifully, my threes held up, and that enabled me to make the money. The cowboys should have won, and the threes should have lost, but I'm not complaining. That's just how poker rolls :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     189   54    49    74000

delta: $24,000
2025 balance: $-649,000
2025 blue distance: $649,000
balance: $15,648,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.48 (1299 of 3132)