Profitable and unprofitable months

One month is a good length of time for an observation window. I've now played online poker in 190 distinct months. 122 of them were profitable. This year, although I'm still in the red, at least I'm trending upwards. No matter what happens in today's session, this month will still be a profitable one :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     340   81    96        0    34
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     322   81   119        0    25

delta: $-100,000
2025 balance: $-897,000
2025 blue distance: $897,000
balance: $15,400,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1306 of 3152)

Three call ins and a fall in

It's rare for me to go all in to open the betting on a street. When all my chips go into the middle, the most common reason is that I called a bet that was at least as big as my chip stack; that's what I call a "call in".  It's also rare for me to allow my stack to get so short that it gets eaten up by the forced bets before the hole cards are even dealt, with no volition on my part; that's what I call a "fall in". Last night, I had three call ins and a fall in. I was lucky enough to survive the fall in and the first two call ins. That helped me last long enough to reach the fifth money jump above a min cash.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     309   81    31   135000    52

delta: $85,000
2025 balance: $-797,000
2025 blue distance: $797,000
balance: $15,500,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1306 of 3150)

KK KO'd

I have enough hand data now to notice some anomalies. One of the glaring ones is my winning percentage with cowboys (pocket kings). It's  as low as it can possibly be. I've received them 3 times in 827 hands, and have lost at showdown each time. Let's just say my cowboys are getting KO'd. In other news, I failed to complete a turducken on Sunday. Time to start a new streak :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     471  117   145        0    22

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-882,000
2025 blue distance: $882,000
balance: $15,415,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1305 of 3149)

Looking for a turducken

On Friday, I completed my first hambone of the year. My streak of consecutive in the money finishes is now at four, and still alive. If I finish in the money in the first tournament I play today, the streak will improve to five, and still be alive. I've decided to call such a streak a turducken, since it's two better than a turkey :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     237   63    42    99000    38

delta: $49,000
2025 balance: $-832,000
2025 blue distance: $832,000
balance: $15,465,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1305 of 3148)

Looking for a hambone

I love poker slang, and slang in general. It's fun to create new poker slang, and also fun to borrow known slang terms from non-poker contexts and use them in a poker context. In bowling, three consecutive strikes is a turkey. In poker, I define a turkey to be three consecutive tournaments where I finish in the money. Yesterday, I completed my third turkey of the year. In bowling, four consecutive strikes is a hambone. If I finish in the money in the first tournament I play today, I'll complete my first hambone of the year :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     313   81    79    68000    28
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     340   81    73    74000    30

delta: $42,000
2025 balance: $-881,000
2025 blue distance: $881,000
balance: $15,416,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1304 of 3147)

Under the lights

Yesterday I had a nice rebound from the session before. I got under the lights (i.e., made it to the final table) for the second time this year. That extrapolates to 14 times for the year, which is on a par with what I had in 2023 and 2024. Getting under the lights never gets old :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     211   54     9   194000    60

delta: $144,000
2025 balance: $-923,000
2025 blue distance: $923,000
balance: $15,374,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.40 (1302 of 3145)

None and done

On Tuesday I played three tournaments, and missed the money by a country mile in all of them. Not only that, they were three of the shortest tournaments I've played in recent memory. To top it all off, I failed to win a single pot in the shortest of the three. That's only the second time that's happened in the 22 tournaments I've played since I started manually recording the minimum viable poker hand data. I call that a none and done tournament :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     249   63   136        0    12
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     325   81   137        0    15
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     259   72   125        0     9

delta: $-150,000
2025 balance: $-1,067,000
2025 blue distance: $1,067,000
balance: $15,230,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.38 (1301 of 3144)

Lion or lamb

When a tournament approaches the money bubble, every remaining player must decide if they want to play like a lion or play like a lamb. Lions are going for the money up top; lambs are just going for a min cash. Interestingly, there's no hard and fast answer to the problem of how one should play. Many times, I'm content to be a lamb, and try to fold my way into the money. However, many other times I insist on being a lion ...

This is an excerpt from my July 20, 2020 post. In the final hand of yesterday's session, I insisted on being a lion. I'd been dealt 97o (nine seven offsuit), and an eight and a ten showed up in the flop, giving me an open-ended straight draw. All my chips went into the middle, but I bricked on the turn and the river, and missed the money by four spots. Still and all, I have no regrets.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     375   99    61   112000    39
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     205   54    58        0    25

delta: $12,000
2025 balance: $-917,000
2025 blue distance: $917,000
balance: $15,380,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.42 (1301 of 3141)

The chicken or the egg?

There are 1,326 possible starting hands in Texas Hold'em, 60 of which are premium ones. That means that players can expect to be dealt a premium hand roughly once every 22 hands. Of course, premium hands don't always come smoothly, but over time, they achieve this ratio. Looking at the hand data I've collected so far, I can see that it's difficult to make the money if you aren't dealt a single premium hand in the course of a tournament. Of the four tournaments where this has happened to me, I only made the money in one. There's more than one way to look at this, however. It could certainly be the case that the lack of premium hands played a large part in my missing the money. On the other hand, it could also be the case that missing the money played a large part in my not receiving premium hands, since missing the money means I played fewer hands than I would have otherwise, and the fewer hands that are played, the greater the chances of not receiving a single premium hand. This a variation on the old conundrum "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?". Be that as it may, whichever came first, it makes no difference to the bottom line :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     428  117   178        0    17

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-929,000
2025 blue distance: $929,000
balance: $15,368,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.41 (1300 of 3139)

A folding machine

I played three tournaments yesterday, and made the money in the third one. Interestingly, that was the only one where I didn't get dealt a premium hand. In fact, most of the hands I was dealt that tournament were crap. That led to my setting a new record for percentage of hands I folded before the flop - over 91. I was a folding machine, but was able to min cash nonetheless.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     422   99   118        0    23
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     338   81   120        0    24
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     322   81    75    70000    34

delta: $-80,000
2025 balance: $-879,000
2025 blue distance: $879,000
balance: $15,418,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.43 (1300 of 3138)

Rockets into the sunset

It always hurts when you've been dealt pocket aces and they get cracked. It hurts even more when you get bounced out of a tournament that way. That's what happened to me yesterday, on the final hand of the second tournament I played. I used to call that occurrence "aces out", but now I call it "rockets into the sunset". When the poker gods see fit to send your rockets into the sunset, you know it's time to quit playing for the rest of the day.

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     265   72    92        0    30
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     406   99   153        0    17

delta: $-100,000
2025 balance: $-799,000
2025 blue distance: $799,000
balance: $15,498,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1299 of 3135)

Refining a magic minimum

Two posts ago, I stated that my magic minimum number of hands to play to virtually assure me of making the money is forty. It turns out I was a little bit off. I now believe this magic number is actually 35. Since I started manually recording hand data, I've played in 11 tournaments, making the money in five of them. In all of those five, I played at least 35 hands. In all six of the tournaments where I missed the money, I played at most 27 hands. If the maximum number of hands I've played in tournaments where I missed the money stays below the minimum number of hands I've played in tournaments where I made the money, that minimum number will truly be magic :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry entries paid place winnings hands

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000     320   81    95        0    27

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-699,000
2025 blue distance: $699,000
balance: $15,598,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1299 of 3133)

A tale of two pocks

In the one tournament I played yesterday, I was dealt pocks twice when the money bubble was about to burst. On hand 28, I was dealt cowboys (pocket kings), went all in with them, and was a heavy favorite; however, the river did me in. The only thing that prevented me from hitting the rail was the fact that I had more chips at the start of the hand than the opponent who called me had. On hand 34, I was dealt pocket threes and was so short-stacked I fell in. Mercifully, my threes held up, and that enabled me to make the money. The cowboys should have won, and the threes should have lost, but I'm not complaining. That's just how poker rolls :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     189   54    49    74000

delta: $24,000
2025 balance: $-649,000
2025 blue distance: $649,000
balance: $15,648,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.48 (1299 of 3132)

North of forty

It's a given that the more hands you play in a tournament, the better your chances are of making the money. It would be neat if there were a magic number of hands which, if you managed to achieve it, would guarantee that you made the money. Of course, there's no such number, but my poker data indicates that there is a number which gives you a high probability of making the money, even though it isn't guaranteed. For the MTTs I play, and the way I play them, that number is forty. Since I started manually recording poker hand data, I've played forty or more hands in three of the nine tournaments I've played, and made the money in all three. For the record, I played 86 hands in Tuesday's tournament. It's good to be north of forty :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     343   81     5   505000

delta: $455,000
2025 balance: $-673,000
2025 blue distance: $673,000
balance: $15,624,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1298 of 3131)

A rare breed of hand

I haven't played any poker since last Friday. In the meantime, though, I've written some additional utilities to examine my minimum viable poker hand data in various ways. In the course of doing this, I became reacquainted with a rare breed of hand. It has the following distinguishing characteristics:

- I didn't fold before the flop

- I didn't see the flop

- I won the hand without a showdown

Actually, the third characteristic is guaranteed to be true if the first two are true, but I'm including it for completeness. There's only one scenario which allows all three characteristics to be true:

- I'm in the big blind

- every other player at the table folds before the flop

In the hand data I've collected so far, I've been the beneficiary of this rare breed of hand four times; in every case, it appeared after the money bubble had burst.

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     309   81    19   149000

delta: $99,000
2025 balance: $-1,128,000
2025 blue distance: $1,128,000
balance: $15,169,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1297 of 3130)

A hole in my data

I've been looking at my premium hand stats, and they're not stellar. In the seven tournaments where I've manually recorded hand data, I've been dealt premium hands ten times. Since I was dealt a total of 193 hands, I've been getting premium hands at a 5.18% clip. That's higher than the expected 4.52%, so I have no complaints there. The problem is my win rate; I've won just three of the hands, and lost seven. I realize there's a hole in my data; I'm only recording folds which came before the flop or on the river. It's important to record folds which came on the flop or on the turn also. Of the seven hands I lost, I lost one at showdown and folded the rest. Of the six I folded, I only know at what point the fold occurred in one case, when I folded to a river bet. In the other five hands, I either folded on the flop or on the turn, but have no way of knowing which. That just won't do. I'll remedy that, going forward, by taking the little bit of extra time I'll need to record the additional data. Note: the stats below are from Wednesday's session; I didn't play yesterday.

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     251   63   117        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     407   99   135        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     321   81   120        0

delta: $-150,000
2025 balance: $-1,227,000
2025 blue distance: $1,227,000
balance: $15,070,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.42 (1296 of 3129)

One showdown

Every poker player in any tournament ever is always guaranteed to go to showdown at least once, that time being when his/her final hand is played. It's a very bad thing if that's the only time you go to showdown, since that guarantees you missed the money. In the one tournament I played yesterday, that's exactly what happened to me. I played just 16 hands, and folded before the flop on all but two of them. The first time time I paid to see the flop was on hand five, when I'd been dealt a big slick. I got to see all of the community cards, but had to fold to a big bet on the river, so I didn't go to showdown. The second time I paid to see the flop was on my final hand. I was short-stacked, and called a bet which put me all in. That was the only time I went to showdown. For the record, my final holding was K2o (king deuce offsuit).

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     294   72   112        0

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-1,077,000
2025 blue distance: $1,077,000
balance: $15,220,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1296 of 3126)

Quick is sick

In yesterday's session, I registered my second straight money finish of the three tournaments during which I recorded my minimum viable poker hand data. I think the benefits of recording this data include being forced to make poker decisions more quickly than I normally would. There's an old poker adage which says "Long is wrong", meaning the longer you take to make a decision, the better the chances are you'll make the wrong one. A corollary to this adage might be "Quick is sick", meaning the quicker you make a decision, the better the chances are you'll make the right one. Of course, in this context, sick is slang, and means awesome :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     358   99    67    96000

delta: $46,000
2025 balance: $-1,027,000
2025 blue distance: $1,027,000
balance: $15,270,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.47 (1296 of 3125)

A good start to February

Yesterday, my first session in February was a success. I had the best finish of the year so far in an MTT NLHE. I'm happy that my dismal poker January is in the rear view mirror! In other news, I was able to record my minimum viable poker hand data without difficulty. Here are some details which stand out from the tournament where I had the best finish:

- I was dealt 73 hands

- I folded before the flop 51 times (69.86% of the time)

- I went to showdown 8 times, winning 7 times (87.5%)

- I won without showdown 6 times

- I was dealt premium hands 5 times

I'm psyched to have this data, and will continue to collect it.

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     356   99   166        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     369   99    10   211000

delta: $111,000
2025 balance: $-1,073,000
2025 blue distance: $1,073,000
balance: $15,224,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1295 of 3124)

Minimum viable poker hand data

In the world of software development, one of the current buzz phrases is "minimum viable product". The idea is that in order to be able to launch quickly, the first version of a product should contain the smallest amount of functionality that might actually be useful.

This is an excerpt from my March 12, 2012 post. I've been missing automated poker hand histories for so long, I've decided it's time to bite the bullet and record some of the hand data manually. Since it won't be possible to record every detail manually, I need to decide what the minimum viable poker hand data are for me. Of course, I need to record my hole cards for every hand I've been dealt; that's a given. It's also imperative for me to record whether I won the hand or not. Other than these two vital details, I need to figure out what other data I might want, using a cost benefit analysis. The cost is the time and effort it would take to record each additional datum, and the benefit is whether having the datum will be able to help me improve my game. I'll give the following a shot:

1. my hole cards

2. whether I saw the flop

3. whether the hand was an all in, a call in, a fall in, or none of these

4. whether I won the hand

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     346   81   149        0

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-1,184,000
2025 blue distance: $1,184,000
balance: $15,113,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1294 of 3122)