Trading places

Something quite rare happened in last night's session. In two straight sit and gos, I made it to heads up against the same player. I won the first encounter and lost the second. We traded places :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    36     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    40     1   171600
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    84     2    92400

delta: $114,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,025,240
balance: $11,746,065

Double nil below session

Last night, I had a double nil below session:

1. nil below third (none of my sit and go finishes was lower than third place)
2. nil below forty (none of my tournaments lasted less than forty hands)

It feels good to have returned to a much saner variance level :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    68      80   18    16     4520
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    53       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    46       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    84       6    2     1   171600

delta: $21,120
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,911,240
balance: $11,632,065

The bloom is off the KO rose

After just four sessions playing KOs, the bloom is off the rose. I've concluded that no matter how fun they may be to play, there's just no profit in them. The upshot is that I'm heading back to sit and gos, and will play the occasional KO for fun. If PokerStars ever comes out with a turbo KO variant, I'll take it out for a test drive :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    41      76   18    24        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    23       9    3     3    47500
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    14       9    3     6        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    53       9    3     2   124000
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    38       9    3     3    73900
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    13       9    3     4        0

delta: $-59,600
KO no limit hold'em balance: $-298,739
balance: $11,610,945

yatt

Last night, I achieved yatt (yet another top ten). I wagered the eighth largest amount I've ever wagered in a single session - $665,000. Here are the top ten:

   wagered        delta  count     date

$1,675,500  $-1,024,500     13  2012-07-21
$1,300,000   $1,035,500      8  2014-02-13
$1,130,500      $81,500      9  2012-08-18
$1,125,000  $-1,030,500      5  2015-08-24
  $930,500     $353,500     10  2012-07-20
  $909,000    $-111,000      8  2012-08-19
  $700,000    $-335,500     14  2014-02-07
  $665,000     $-97,500     12  2016-04-25
  $600,000    $-411,000      6  2015-06-18
  $600,000     $291,000      6  2015-06-17

My gut feeling is that KOs are a losing proposition over the long term, but I'm having too much fun to quit playing them just yet :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    39       9    3     1   198100
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    14       9    3     5        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    14       9    3     5        0
MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    39      99   18    32        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    20       9    3     3    73900
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    40       9    3     2   124000
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9     9       9    3     7        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    20       9    3     3    47500
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    16       9    3     2    97600
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9     3       9    3     9        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    18       9    3     5    26400
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9     9       9    3     5        0

delta: $-97,500
KO no limit hold'em balance: $-244,139
balance: $11,670,545

KO variance

My second KO session taught me a lesson about KO variance. It's much higher than sit and go variance, actually. There are two reasons why:

1. KO has 9 players to a table, whereas sit and go only has 6
2. KO has no turbo option; there's only hyper as of now

Here's how PokerStars describes its different tournament speeds:

Regular: The standard blind levels and starting chip stacks for a tournament.
Turbo: A faster tournament typically has faster blind levels and different starting chip stacks to reduce the typical duration.
Hyper-Turbo: Our fastest tournaments which typically have the fastest blind levels and reduced starting chips stacks.

I quickly swore off hyper sit and gos, due to the high variance. I may have to swear off KOs for the same reason, but I want to give them a longer trial before I decide. KOs have two big points in their favor:

1. they're incredibly fun to play
2. they don't take long to play, which means I'll be able to reach my goal of wagering 60 million play dollars this year more easily

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    13      67   18    39        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    10       9    3     7        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9     6       9    3     6        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    16       9    3     4        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    24       9    3     3    73900

delta: $-171,100
KO no limit hold'em balance: $-151,639
balance: $11,768,045

KO is OK

Recently, PokerStars added a "KO Poker" tab to their main lobby. Last night, I decided to give this poker style a try. KO, as you might expect, stands for knockout. The twist in this flavor is that only half your buy in goes towards the place payouts; the other half is your bounty. Every time you knock another player out, you win their bounty. If you get knocked out, the player who did it wins your bounty. If you win the tournament, you get your bounty back; there's no such thing as knocking yourself out :-)

Already, after only a short acquaintance with KOs, I like them a lot. The bounties help smooth out the variance of the results. They allow you to fail to make the place money but still win back a portion of your buy in. There are probably a lot of players trying KOs for the first time, so I expect to find a lot of fish out there, at least to start with. I'll make hay while the sun shines :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6     3      67   18    51        0
KO    NLHE     1056   144       9    56       9    3     2     2481
KO    NLHE     2640   360       9    57       9    3     1     8580
KO    NLHE    17600  2400       9    22       9    3     4     8800
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    38       9    3     3    73900
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9     4       9    3     7        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    14       9    3     4        0
KO    NLHE    52800  7200       9    36       9    3     1   184900

delta: $9,461
KO no limit hold'em balance: $14,461
balance: $11,939,145

In the sweetness

I'm almost certain this is my most common blog post title. Last night I was in the sweetness for the heart of the session, making the money four times in a row. As I've said before, when you're in the sweetness, you feel like you can do no wrong. You actually have a sneaking suspicion you're never going to fall out out it, all prior evidence to the contrary :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    23       6    2     5        0
MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    21      90   18    56        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    32       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    40       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    21       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    86       6    2     1   171600
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    30       6    2     3        0

delta: $143,800
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,889,640
balance: $11,929,684

A new personal worst

When you've played poker as long as I have, personal bests and personal worsts get fewer and farther between. As I've mentioned before, I celebrate personal worsts with almost as much pride as I do personal bests :-) Last night, I set a new personal worst for number of hands played in a winless non-cash session - 242. Here are the top 10:

hands      delta  count     date

  242  $-155,000      4  2016-04-19
  222   $-60,000      6  2015-12-25
  198   $-60,000      6  2015-12-14
  196  $-600,000      6  2015-06-12
  193  $-600,000      6  2015-06-16
  192  $-203,200      4  2012-09-17
  191   $-55,000      2  2015-03-31
  189  $-155,000      4  2016-01-15
  186  $-200,000      4  2015-10-27
  185   $-20,000      2  2015-08-04

My final hand of the night hurt the most. We were three handed and I was the short stack. I was dealt Ac 8s and went all in preflop. The chip leader called with 5d 7h. I was a 63.26% favorite at this point. The flop came Ah 2h Js, making me a 92.42% favorite. The turn was 4c, which bumped me down to a 90.91% favorite. The river card, 3h, was a dagger through the heart (no pun intended).

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    47      87   18    24        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    55       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    90       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    50       6    2     3        0

delta: $-155,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,740,840
balance: $11,785,884

Second places way ahead

With two more second place finishes last night, I've now had 50 more second places than firsts. It's safe to say the the firsts will never catch up. That's okay; I never expected them to. I'll be happy as long as the seconds stay ahead of the thirds :-) Here are my career sit and go no limit hold'em place counts to date:

1  235
2  285
3  277
4  237
5  181
6  103

  1318

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    57      92   18    23        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    34       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    74       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    96       6    2     2    92400

delta: $29,800
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,890,840
balance: $11,940,884

Fourths move into third

Looked at individually, fourth places are always fourth places. However, collectively, they can assume a different identity. On Saturday night, my two sit and go fourths moved fourths as a class into third on my career list of most frequent finishes, bumping firsts to fourth :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    25       6    2     4        0
MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    12      62   12    37        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    37       6    2     4        0

delta: $-105,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,856,040
balance: $11,911,084

Bumping up my FTP

It's always a big deal to get to the final table of an MTT. I've never achieved that in a massive. Just as a reminder, my definition of a massive is an MTT with over 500 players. On PokerStars, there's no such thing as a massive MTT 8-game; the biggest field I was ever a part of in this poker style and flavor had a mere 271 players. Be that as it may, I've made the final table 16 times in 129 MTT 8-games, including last night, which translates to 12.4% of the time. Not a bad FTP (Final Table Percentage) :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6   139      99   18     6    19370
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    92       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    48       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    82       6    2     2    92400

delta: $49,170
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,956,040
balance: $12,016,084

Three knockouts

To win a sit and go, you must knock out at least one opponent - your heads up opponent. It's possible, though not very likely, to win a sit and go with just that single knockout. More commonly, you'll have multiple knockouts on your path to victory. The more knockouts you have before you get to heads up, the more likely it is that you'll begin heads up play with a commanding lead. The bigger your lead when heads up begins, the better your chances of coming in first. Last night, in the second and final sit and go I played, I had two knockouts before heads up. I started heads up with an overwhelming chip lead of 5,205 to 795. It took me 18 more hands to come in first, but I got there :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    47       6    2     2    92400
MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6   111      92   18     9    13000
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    47       6    2     1   171600

delta: $172,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,921,240
balance: $11,966,914

A hasty selection

The sit and go selection process on PokerStars leaves a fair amount to be desired. The different buy in levels all appear on the same scrollable list. Although the list is ordered by buy in level, it's fairly easy to select the wrong one every now and then when you're also focused on selecting a Turbo instead of a Hyper. This happened to me when I was selecting my second sit and go last night. When I saw a Turbo that already had five players registered, I hurriedly joined it without noticing that it had a $4,400 buy in, as opposed to my normal buy in of $44,000. Since I came in second, this simple mistake ended up costing me $45,000. Ouch!

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 44000  6000       6    39     5        0
  4400   600       6    89     2     9240

delta: $-99,520
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,803,000
balance: $11,840,674

The zen of MTTs

I've now played 223 MTTs. It's a far cry from the 1,444 sit and gos I've played, but it's not an inconsiderable number, either. I feel like I now have a really good understanding of how to play MTTs. I'm dialed into their zen, in other words :-) Let me share my knowledge with you. The first thing you have to realize is that you must be very patient. The second thing is that if you're too patient, you're going to lose :-) Your way lies between the extremes of total patience and total impatience, grasshopper.

Let me tell you how you're generally not going to make the money. You're generally not going to make the money by shooting to the head of the pack and staying there. Generally speaking, you're going to make the money by being out of the running the whole night long, but just stubbornly refusing to quit. Generally speaking, you make the money by backing into it. That's what happened to me last night. I've seen this pattern repeat so many times, I get seriously worried if I ever find myself at the head of the pack :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6   117      97   18    17     5480
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    20       6    2     5        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    47       6    2     3        0

delta: $-99,520
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,803,000
balance: $11,840,674

Keeping an eye on the sixths

In the final sit and go I played last night, I came in sixth. It feels to me like I'm coming in sixth more frequently these days. Let me check the archives to see if this is true ...

It's true. My career sixth place percentage is 7.89, whereas my 2016 sixth place percentage is 8.09. The distribution of my non-money finishes shouldn't matter that much to me, but for some reason it does; I like to keep my sixth places well down. There are obviously different ways to come in sixth, however; for me, the higher the hand count, the better I feel about it. 26 hands for a sixth place finish isn't too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4350   650       6    39     100   24    36        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6     7       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    53       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    87       6    2     1   171600
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    26       6    2     6        0

delta: $59,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,903,000
balance: $11,940,194

Heads up microbattle

Last night, in the first sit and go I joined, I got to heads up play at the end of hand 67. Five hands and less than a minute later, I'd come in first. Such microbattles are a welcome change :-) The shortest possible heads up battle is one hand. I'm curious to see how many I've had; let me check the archives ...

The answer is 18. I've lost 11, and won 7.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 44000  6000       6    72     1   171600
 44000  6000       6    17     6        0
 44000  6000       6    28     5        0

delta: $21,600
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,839,000
balance: $11,881,194

Heads up marathon

On Friday night, in the first sit and go I entered, I had a heads up marathon. It made number 6 on my all time list. Here are the top ten:

0.813333 (61 of 75) 2016/0120/a
0.780488 (64 of 82) 2015/1231/a
0.771429 (54 of 70) 2015/0526/c
0.760563 (54 of 71) 2015/0602/b
0.752294 (82 of 109) 2016/0112/b
0.747475 (74 of 99) 2016/0408/b
0.734177 (58 of 79) 2012/0827/a
0.730337 (65 of 89) 2015/0610/c
0.705263 (67 of 95) 2012/1102/a
0.704762 (74 of 105) 2016/0117/d

Sorry to say, I came out on the short end.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    70     104   24    22     4440
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    99       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    51       6    2     1   171600
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    16       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    35       6    2     4        0

delta: $63,440
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,817,400
balance: $11,859,594

Aces out

The poker gods talk to poker players via unlikelihoods. Certain events are so unlikely that when they occur, you can't help but sit up and take notice. You can't help but feel that someone is trying to tell you something :-) For me, the clearest signal to stop playing for the night is when I hit the rail on a hand where I've been dealt pocket rockets. I call such an occurrence "aces out". Last night, I had an aces out in the fourth sit and go I played, and heeded the call to quit.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    59      86   18    25        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    54       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    26       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6     8       6    2     6        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    30       6    2     5        0

delta: $-205,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,753,400
balance: $11,796,154

yagr (yet another golden ratio)

One of my favorite poker pastimes besides playing poker is coming up with meaningful poker statistics. The very first one I came up with I naively called the golden ratio, not realizing that I'd be playing many different flavors of poker over the years and would be dreaming up golden ratios for each. The defining characteristic of a golden ratio is that if you achieve it, you'll make a profit. I've tried my hand at defining sit and go golden ratios before, and it's time to try again. I actually may have already invented the simple formula I'm about to state, but this time I actually have some numbers to back it up. The formula is this:

sit and go ratio = (number of top finishes) / (number of bottom finishes)

A top finish is 1, 2, or 3. A bottom finish is 4, 5, or 6. A golden sit and go ratio is 1.5 or higher. My current sit and go ratio is golden, at 1.537402.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    13      90   18    51        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    62       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    16       6    2     6        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    30       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    30       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    16       6    2     6        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    58       6    2     2    92400

delta: $-120,200
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $3,953,400
balance: $12,001,154

Another top ten

Last night brought my four session winning streak to a close. I played pretty well, but didn't have a lot to show for it. The most interesting factoid of the session is that in the final sit and go I entered, I was playing three handed for 53 of the 61 hands, for 86.88%; that made it to the number six slot on that particular career list. Here are the top 10:

0.988372 (85 of 86) 2015/0408/c
0.919355 (57 of 62) 2012/1003/b
0.916667 (66 of 72) 2016/0214/a
0.910891 (92 of 101) 2015/0611/b
0.909091 (40 of 44) 2014/0307/a
0.868852 (53 of 61) 2016/0405/e
0.807692 (21 of 26) 2014/0228/d
0.805556 (29 of 36) 2016/0125/a
0.792453 (42 of 53) 2015/1021/c
0.790698 (34 of 43) 2014/0331/d

Another interesting factoid is that three of the tournaments lasted at least 60 hands, which is also pretty rare.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    65      92   18    23        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    61       6    2     2    92400
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    28       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    32       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    61       6    2     3        0

delta: $-112,600
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,068,600
balance: $12,121,354

ROI death match

My favorite poker flavor is 8-game. My favorite poker style for playing 8-game is MTT. I actually have a very impressive MTT 8-game ROI - for every play dollar I wager, I win back 1.4719 play dollars. My sit and go no limit hold'em ROI is much less impressive - for every play dollar I wager, I win back just 1.0577 play dollars. So it would seem that in an ROI death match, MTT 8-game should utterly demolish SNG NLHE, right? Actually, wrong. As wrong as wrong can be. There are two major problems here. One is time, and the other is money :-)

First, the time problem. MTT 8-games, on average, take much longer than SNG NLHEs to play. Although MTT 8-games are very enjoyable to play, they simply take too long from an ROI perspective.

Next, the money problem. There are no high roller MTT 8-games on PokerStars, at least that I can find. So even though I'm making 47% on my investment, I'm only able to invest peanuts, so I'm only making peanuts.

The upshot is that I'll still keep playing MTT 8-games for fun, but will restrict myself to one a session. I'll keep playing SNG NLHEs for my bread and butter. Don't get me wrong; SNG NLHEs are also a lot of fun to play.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   143      75   18     2    59060
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    67       6    2     3        0

delta: $4,060
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,176,200
balance: $12,233,954

A hurricane of queens

On May 19th, 2014, I wrote about a blizzard of snowmen. Tonight I'm going to write about a hurricane of queens. In the blizzard of snowmen session, I was dealt pocket eights 3 times in 64 hands, which was 10.36 times the normal frequency for receiving them. Last Friday night, in the second sit and go I played, I was dealt pocket queens 4 times in 50 hands, which was 17.68 times the normal frequency for receiving them. Perhaps not too surprisingly, I came in first :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands style flavor place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    87 MTT   8-Game    17     5790
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    19 SNG   NLHE       4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    50 SNG   NLHE       1   171600
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6     9 SNG   NLHE       6        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    51 SNG   NLHE       2    92400

delta: $64,790
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,226,200
balance: $12,229,894

Progress check

Now that 1/4 of the year is in the books, it's a good time to check my progress towards my 2016 poker goal. As a refresher, that goal was to wager 60 million play dollars playing sit and go no limit hold'em. It's the first time I've ever set myself a goal having nothing to do with profit. Actually, that's not quite true; profit figures into this goal too, albeit vestigially. Without making a profit now and then, there's no way I could ever achieve the goal. I'd go broke, and have no more play money to put up. Here are my numbers for the first three months of the year:

    wagered      profit  count  month

 $5,750,000  $1,607,500    115  January
 $5,150,000      $7,000    103  February
 $4,900,000   $-196,600     98  March

$15,800,000  $1,417,900    316

Right on target :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    58      99   18    38        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    48       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    27       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    44000  6000       6    55       6    2     1   171600

delta: $16,600
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,162,200
balance: $12,165,104