North of forty

It's a given that the more hands you play in a tournament, the better your chances are of making the money. It would be neat if there were a magic number of hands which, if you managed to achieve it, would guarantee that you made the money. Of course, there's no such number, but my poker data indicates that there is a number which gives you a high probability of making the money, even though it isn't guaranteed. For the MTTs I play, and the way I play them, that number is forty. Since I started manually recording poker hand data, I've played forty or more hands in three of the nine tournaments I've played, and made the money in all three. For the record, I played 86 hands in Tuesday's tournament. It's good to be north of forty :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     343   81     5   505000

delta: $455,000
2025 balance: $-673,000
2025 blue distance: $673,000
balance: $15,624,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1298 of 3131)

A rare breed of hand

I haven't played any poker since last Friday. In the meantime, though, I've written some additional utilities to examine my minimum viable poker hand data in various ways. In the course of doing this, I became reacquainted with a rare breed of hand. It has the following distinguishing characteristics:

- I didn't fold before the flop

- I didn't see the flop

- I won the hand without a showdown

Actually, the third characteristic is guaranteed to be true if the first two are true, but I'm including it for completeness. There's only one scenario which allows all three characteristics to be true:

- I'm in the big blind

- every other player at the table folds before the flop

In the hand data I've collected so far, I've been the beneficiary of this rare breed of hand four times; in every case, it appeared after the money bubble had burst.

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     309   81    19   149000

delta: $99,000
2025 balance: $-1,128,000
2025 blue distance: $1,128,000
balance: $15,169,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.44 (1297 of 3130)

A hole in my data

I've been looking at my premium hand stats, and they're not stellar. In the seven tournaments where I've manually recorded hand data, I've been dealt premium hands ten times. Since I was dealt a total of 193 hands, I've been getting premium hands at a 5.18% clip. That's higher than the expected 4.52%, so I have no complaints there. The problem is my win rate; I've won just three of the hands, and lost seven. I realize there's a hole in my data; I'm only recording folds which came before the flop or on the river. It's important to record folds which came on the flop or on the turn also. Of the seven hands I lost, I lost one at showdown and folded the rest. Of the six I folded, I only know at what point the fold occurred in one case, when I folded to a river bet. In the other five hands, I either folded on the flop or on the turn, but have no way of knowing which. That just won't do. I'll remedy that, going forward, by taking the little bit of extra time I'll need to record the additional data. Note: the stats below are from Wednesday's session; I didn't play yesterday.

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     251   63   117        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     407   99   135        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     321   81   120        0

delta: $-150,000
2025 balance: $-1,227,000
2025 blue distance: $1,227,000
balance: $15,070,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.42 (1296 of 3129)

One showdown

Every poker player in any tournament ever is always guaranteed to go to showdown at least once, that time being when his/her final hand is played. It's a very bad thing if that's the only time you go to showdown, since that guarantees you missed the money. In the one tournament I played yesterday, that's exactly what happened to me. I played just 16 hands, and folded before the flop on all but two of them. The first time time I paid to see the flop was on hand five, when I'd been dealt a big slick. I got to see all of the community cards, but had to fold to a big bet on the river, so I didn't go to showdown. The second time I paid to see the flop was on my final hand. I was short-stacked, and called a bet which put me all in. That was the only time I went to showdown. For the record, my final holding was K2o (king deuce offsuit).

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     294   72   112        0

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-1,077,000
2025 blue distance: $1,077,000
balance: $15,220,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.46 (1296 of 3126)

Quick is sick

In yesterday's session, I registered my second straight money finish of the three tournaments during which I recorded my minimum viable poker hand data. I think the benefits of recording this data include being forced to make poker decisions more quickly than I normally would. There's an old poker adage which says "Long is wrong", meaning the longer you take to make a decision, the better the chances are you'll make the wrong one. A corollary to this adage might be "Quick is sick", meaning the quicker you make a decision, the better the chances are you'll make the right one. Of course, in this context, sick is slang, and means awesome :-)

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     358   99    67    96000

delta: $46,000
2025 balance: $-1,027,000
2025 blue distance: $1,027,000
balance: $15,270,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.47 (1296 of 3125)

A good start to February

Yesterday, my first session in February was a success. I had the best finish of the year so far in an MTT NLHE. I'm happy that my dismal poker January is in the rear view mirror! In other news, I was able to record my minimum viable poker hand data without difficulty. Here are some details which stand out from the tournament where I had the best finish:

- I was dealt 73 hands

- I folded before the flop 51 times (69.86% of the time)

- I went to showdown 8 times, winning 7 times (87.5%)

- I won without showdown 6 times

- I was dealt premium hands 5 times

I'm psyched to have this data, and will continue to collect it.

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     356   99   166        0
MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     369   99    10   211000

delta: $111,000
2025 balance: $-1,073,000
2025 blue distance: $1,073,000
balance: $15,224,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1295 of 3124)

Minimum viable poker hand data

In the world of software development, one of the current buzz phrases is "minimum viable product". The idea is that in order to be able to launch quickly, the first version of a product should contain the smallest amount of functionality that might actually be useful.

This is an excerpt from my March 12, 2012 post. I've been missing automated poker hand histories for so long, I've decided it's time to bite the bullet and record some of the hand data manually. Since it won't be possible to record every detail manually, I need to decide what the minimum viable poker hand data are for me. Of course, I need to record my hole cards for every hand I've been dealt; that's a given. It's also imperative for me to record whether I won the hand or not. Other than these two vital details, I need to figure out what other data I might want, using a cost benefit analysis. The cost is the time and effort it would take to record each additional datum, and the benefit is whether having the datum will be able to help me improve my game. I'll give the following a shot:

1. my hole cards

2. whether I saw the flop

3. whether the hand was an all in, a call in, a fall in, or none of these

4. whether I won the hand

style flavor    buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE       44000   6000       9     346   81   149        0

delta: $-50,000
2025 balance: $-1,184,000
2025 blue distance: $1,184,000
balance: $15,113,303
MTT NLHE ITM pct: 41.45 (1294 of 3122)