One of the skills I'm blessed with as a poker player is the ability to estimate probabilities without really thinking about it. I call this "probability radar". Among other things, this lets me keep my pots won at showdown percentage higher than it otherwise would be by folding when my radar tells me I have no realistic chance of winning the pot, even when it would cost me no extra chips to go to showdown. I prefer not to let my opponents see my hole cards in these situations, since that makes it harder for them to get a read on my betting patterns.
An interesting side effect of having probability radar is that it lets you appreciate the rarity of rare events as they occur. Last night, I noticed that I'd been dealt 5 hands in a row in which one of my hole cards was a deuce. I immediately knew I'd witnessed a very rare occurrence. I thought there was a good chance it was the longest such streak I'd ever encountered. I wrote a program today to test this hypothesis. It turns out I was wrong, but not by much. The longest such streak was 6 consecutive hands, back in May of last year. In that case, the repeated hole card was a king.
During current Hold'em session you were dealt 108 hands and saw flop:
- 13 out of 15 times while in big blind (86%)
- 16 out of 19 times while in small blind (84%)
- 43 out of 74 times in other positions (58%)
- a total of 72 out of 108 (66%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 16 (68%)
Pots won without showdown - 12
delta: $19,077
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,120,508
balance: $9,178,211
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