yaps: lolhs

Last night, I doubled up on hand 3. I didn't quit right then; I play poker largely for entertainment, and quitting after only playing three hands isn't much fun. I ended up giving back all my winnings, and even dipped into the red; a strong finish put me back in the black. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, I was inspired to come up with yaps (yet another poker statistic). I call this one lolhs. No, it doesn't stand for Laughing Out Loud High School :-) It stands for Last On the Low High Scale. The Low High Scale is what it sounds like - the scale which ranges from your low balance of the session to your high balance of the session. Last on the Low High Scale is where your final balance of the session falls on the scale, in terms of a percentage. If you end on your high, your lolhs will be 100%; if you end on your low, your lolhs will be 0%. Last night, my low balance was $33,722, my high balance was $103,104, and my final balance was $65,939. The lolhs calculation is as follows:

lolhs = (last - low) / (high - low)

So my lolhs value for last night's session was 32217 /  69382, or .464342.

Happy New Year!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 109 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 17 times while in big blind (76%)
 - 12 out of 17 times while in small blind (70%)
 - 43 out of 75 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 68 out of 109 (62%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 20 (40%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $15,939
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,846,779
balance: $7,203,732

My deepest cash dive

From the beginning of my quest to gain a million play dollars, I've measured my progress in milestones of $100,000. That amount works well as a negative milestone also. My deepest tournament dive is over a million play dollars, more than 10 milestones. On Friday night, I set a record for my deepest cash game dive to date - over $600,000, more than 6 milestones. The last time I was in the blue wasn't that long ago - November 13th, to be precise. Of the 35 sessions I've played since then, I've lost a whopping 19. It's high time to right the ship!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 84 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
 - 4 out of 12 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 35 out of 60 times in other positions (58%)
 - a total of 46 out of 84 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 9 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,830,840
balance: $7,187,793

Got there or not there

When a player is on a draw, and makes it (either on the turn or on the river), the common poker phrase is that he or she "got there". When you get there, you expect to win the vast majority of the time. I can't remember ever folding when I've gotten there. The thing is, folding when you've gotten there is sometimes the correct play, and should be in your arsenal. I realize that it's not in mine yet. I sure could have used that weapon last night :-) On the final hand of the session, I was on a straight draw, and got there on the turn. When an opponent bet $29,000, I raised it up to $39,899, and was all in. As it turned out, she'd gotten there on the turn as well, with a better straight. I was actually drawing dead on the river. Her huge river bet should have alerted me to the fact that though I'd "gotten there", in actuality I wasn't anywhere at all :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 75 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 10 times while in big blind (60%)
 - 7 out of 10 times while in small blind (70%)
 - 30 out of 55 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 43 out of 75 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,880,840
balance: $7,237,793

Counterfeit straight

On Christmas Eve, I played well enough to win, but ended up losing. Hey, it happens. I hit the felt on hand 5, when an opponent hit a 3 outer on me. I'd made a king high straight on the turn, but the board made the same straight on the river, counterfeiting mine. My opponent had an ace, and therefore had the nut straight. If I'd won that hand, which I had a 93.18% chance of doing after the turn, I would have come out with a profit on the night, but it just wasn't meant to be. I have to admit that I'm in an extended slump. The good thing about slumps is that they always eventually end :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 95 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 15 times while in big blind (53%)
 - 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
 - 35 out of 66 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 51 out of 95 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 16 (43%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-38,326
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,930,840
balance: $7,287,793

Not the top three I was looking for

Last night, I had a top three career hand, but I could have done without it. I lost the third most chips I've ever lost on a cash game no limit hold'em hand. It marked the abrupt end of a session that had been successful up to that point. Here are the top ten hands on the unwanted list:

   -102200 Ah Jd pokerstars\logs\2012\0602\hands 121
    -97932 Qd Ad pokerstars\logs\2013\0613\hands  53
    -71323 Kc Td pokerstars\logs\2013\1223\hands 136
    -65982 Ac Ks pokerstars\logs\2013\1126\hands   8
    -65789 Kh Qh pokerstars\logs\2012\0417\hands  21
    -56200 3c 3s pokerstars\logs\2011\1022\hands  85
    -54429 Kc Kd pokerstars\logs\2013\0611\hands  60
    -53470 As Jh pokerstars\logs\2013\0120\hands  49
    -52200 Kd 2h pokerstars\logs\2012\0414\hands  61
    -52000 3h 3c pokerstars\logs\2012\0705\hands 129

It's no surprise that my worst hand, AJo, shows up on this list twice. Thanks to last night's final hand, KTo (king ten offsuit) has rocketed up to number 8 on my worst hands list.

Last night's last hand was another case of the imp of the perverse. I knew I was most probably beaten, but just couldn't stop myself from calling. The longer the session, the more likely it is that the imp will appear. I should have quit before it had the chance. Live and learn!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 136 hands and saw flop:
 - 12 out of 17 times while in big blind (70%)
 - 8 out of 16 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 48 out of 103 times in other positions (46%)
 - a total of 68 out of 136 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 11 (72%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,969,166
balance: $7,326,119

Showdown bonsai

Knowing when to go to showdown is one of the best skills to have in poker. You will never win as much as you'll win at showdown, and you will never lose as much as you'll lose at showdown. It's actually an excellent plan to go to showdown as sparingly as possible. I call this strategy "Showdown bonsai". You must always be asking yourself, "Do I really need to go to showdown on this hand? Or can I simply prune my showdown tree, keeping it small and beautiful?" Last night, I kept my showdown tree small and beautiful. I only went to showdown twice, and won both times.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 4 out of 6 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 19 out of 37 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 28 out of 49 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $16,014
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,019,166
balance: $7,376,119

The shocking truth

Sometimes, the truth is really shocking. In researching my type 2 Double Stuf record, I discovered that I've hit the felt way more frequently than I'd thought I had. In 561 sessions for which I have the data, I've hit the felt at least once in 171 of them. That translates to 30%. Ouch! My mental model was that I hit the felt in about 10% of the sessions I play. Of course, not all of the sessions where I hit the felt were losing ones. Here are the Double Stuf stats: of the 561 sessions, there were 81 in which I hit the felt one time, then reupped for the max. Of those 81, 33 were winning sessions. That translates to 40%. Here again, my mental model failed me. I was pretty sure my success rate for this type of session would be over 50%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 121 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 14 times while in big blind (57%)
 - 8 out of 16 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 46 out of 91 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 62 out of 121 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 14 (28%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $-22,285
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,003,152
balance: $7,360,105