The shocking truth

Sometimes, the truth is really shocking. In researching my type 2 Double Stuf record, I discovered that I've hit the felt way more frequently than I'd thought I had. In 561 sessions for which I have the data, I've hit the felt at least once in 171 of them. That translates to 30%. Ouch! My mental model was that I hit the felt in about 10% of the sessions I play. Of course, not all of the sessions where I hit the felt were losing ones. Here are the Double Stuf stats: of the 561 sessions, there were 81 in which I hit the felt one time, then reupped for the max. Of those 81, 33 were winning sessions. That translates to 40%. Here again, my mental model failed me. I was pretty sure my success rate for this type of session would be over 50%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 121 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 14 times while in big blind (57%)
 - 8 out of 16 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 46 out of 91 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 62 out of 121 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 14 (28%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $-22,285
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,003,152
balance: $7,360,105