The rake factor

I made a successful return to cash games last night. It would have been more successful had I not failed to take into account the rake factor. There was an unusually long stretch of heads up play in the latter half of the session. I thought I was holding my own just fine, but after the session had ended, in looking over the data I discovered I'd lost a whopping $17,000 in that stretch. As it turned out, my opponent had only made a profit of about $6,000; the other $11,000 which I'd lost had gone to the rake. The rake factor gets bigger the fewer players there are at the table. I really need to keep that in mind going forward. Two players who play each other dead even will eventually both go bust, due to both of them having to pay the rake. To make a profit when heads up in a cash game, not only do you have to do better than your opponent, you have to do better enough than your opponent to offset the rake you have to pay. What an infernal contraption the rake is!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 274 hands and saw flop:
 - 93 out of 99 times while in big blind (93%)
 - 87 out of 98 times while in small blind (88%)
 - 40 out of 77 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 220 out of 274 (80%)
 Pots won at showdown - 39 of 66 (59%)
 Pots won without showdown - 68

delta: $20,488
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,307,361
balance: $8,885,350

The predictable result of my hubris

Last night, I had a top ten result, though not the one I wanted. I lost the eighth most chips I've ever lost in a single session. This was the predictable result of my hubris. I'd told myself that I was better than everybody else, and everybody else proved me wrong :-) I set a new personal worst as well - my balance is now the furthest from the blue it's ever been - $1,640,517, to be precise. I refuse to let the shortfall reach 2 million, but to help guard against that, I need to turn my attention once again to cash games.

High buy-in sit and gos definitely have a get-rich-quick allure, but I need to lash myself to the deck of my ship and ignore their siren call. There really are no short cuts to making a sustainable profit at poker, and I've proven that I require to be reminded of this fact, in dramatic fashion, time and time again :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    18     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    53     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    11     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    24     4        0

delta: $-300,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,401,300
balance: $8,864,862

I can't stay away

Last night, I realized something about my poker self. Actually, to be precise, I realized something about myself, period :-) It happens to apply to my poker self as well, but it's in my general character. What I realized is that, well-founded or not, I have a ton of self-confidence. I actually believe I'm better at a variety of things than other people are, including my ability to play poker. The quickest way I've ever found to increase my stack is to play sit and go no limit hold'em. That's the reason I can never stay away from it for very long, no matter how hard I try. I'm actually finding it physically impossible to stop playing it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    33    50        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    79     2    94500

delta: $39,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,401,300
balance: $9,164,862

43

For many years, my favorite number has been the number 43. I recognize that it's a lucky number. This is not to say that I understand why it's lucky; it's simply an acknowledgement of its specialness. Long ago, I told my oldest friend about my predilection for this number. Initially, he thought my notion was laughable. However, after seeing the number come up numerous times in auspicious circumstances, I think eventually he was won over to my way of thinking :-)

My favorite number and my favorite poker flavor are currently linked. I've now made the money in 29 of the 66 MTT 8-game tournaments I've played. Friends and neighors, that translates to a 43.94 percentage :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    66    18     5790
SNG   8-Game  45000  5000       6    33     6        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   125     5    24270

delta: $-29,940
MTT 8-game balance: $182,840
balance: $9,125,362

Aces out

Last night, in the first MTT I played, I was dealt rockets on my final hand. I was an 80.81% favorite after the flop. I was an 81.82% favorite after the turn. However, I hit the rail when the river card made a straight on the board, and an opponent had a card which gave him a higher straight. That'a a brutal way to exit a tournament. I'm dubbing it "aces out" :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    50    30        0
MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    25    42        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    89    15     4680

delta: $-10,320
MTT 8-game balance: $162,780
balance: $9,155,302

Worst MTT first hand ever

Last night, I set a new personal worst; I lost the most money I've ever lost on the first hand of an MTT. It was a total outlier, more that 1.5 times as big as the second worst first hand on the list. At $800, it was more than half of my starting stack of $1,500. What happened? It's simple really; my opponent had a polarizing betting pattern, and I just didn't believe he had the goods. In other words, I went with my read, but my read was wrong. Hey, it happens :-) I'd rather be true to my read and lose than wimp out before reaching showdown.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    13    59        0

delta: $-5,000
MTT HORSE balance: $-34,160
balance: $9,165,622

The green light

Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us.

― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby

I believe in a green light too, albeit a different one from Gatsby's :-) My green light is the freedom to play without restraint which comes from having made the money in an MTT. The only way to win an MTT is by betting; you can fold your way into the money, but it's impossible to fold your way into a victory. Last night, after making the money in an 8-game, I chased a flush. It didn't pan out, and I lost a huge percentage of my chip stack. However, I don't regret chasing a bit; had I won that hand, I would almost certainly have made the final table.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    89    15     5140
MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    38    23        0

delta: $-4,860
MTT 8-game balance: $168,100
balance: $9,170,622