Padding my loss portfolio

My very worst style and flavor combo is MTT-B NLHE. It's the only one in which I've lost over a million play dollars. Logic says I should never play it again, and yet I played it again last night. Why? Because I was impatient. When I logged on to PokerStars, an MTT NLHE had just started, and I knew I didn't want to wait 40 minutes or so to join it. The MTT-B NLHE on offer only had 5 minutes remaining in its late registration period, so I jumped on it. Result? I increased my career loss in MTT-B NLHEs by $100,000. I'll try to be more patient in future.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9     211   45    78        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      77   21    43        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,578,668
2020 balance: $1,661,000
balance: $63,469,010

Another tournament selection criterion

Last night, I joined an MTT NLHE with 3 minutes left in its late registration period. Check. I made the money. Check. However, I failed to make a profit. Clunk. The problem? I'd inadvertently joined a funny money tournament. Those are tournaments where the payout of a min cash doesn't cover the buy in plus the entry fee. Criminal! Thus, I'm adding another tournament selection criterion: no funny money tournaments.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9     102   27    25    44000

delta: $-6,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,778,668
2020 balance: $1,961,000
balance: $63,769,010

Another magic poker number

Poker is full of magic numbers. I've just identified another one - the threshold number of entries to an MTT which gives me the best chance of making the money. For me, that number is 100. My itm (in the money) percentage for MTT NLHE tournaments with 100 or more entries is 46.82 (287 of 613). My itm percentage for MTT NLHE tournaments with fewer than 100 entries is 26.78 (64 of 239).

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9     150   45    25   101000

delta: $51,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,784,668
2020 balance: $1,967,000
balance: $63,775,010

Tournament selection criteria change

Periodically, I change my tournament selection criteria. It's that time again. I know I've sworn off 9-max tournaments many times before, but I've decided to let them back into my poker life. There are two good reasons for this:

1. I now believe that it's much more important to join any MTT very late in the late registration period than it is to join a 6-max instead of a 9-max
2. I will now be able to minimize my wait time before starting to play, since I'll be able to pick the MTT with the least amount of time left in its late registration period, regardless of whether it's 6-max or 9-max

Last night, I played my first 9-max MTT of the year, and made the money. A good omen :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9     104   27    13    67000

delta: $17,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,733,668
2020 balance: $1,916,000
balance: $63,724,010

Value bet hell

Most good players love making value bets, but very few love calling them. Last night I found myself in value bet hell. Repeatedly, opponents made value bets on the river when I had hands which were good enough to call with. Had they made larger bets, I could have folded, but their bets were sized so that I had the right price to call. My stack descended rapidly. The hand I remember the best is one where an opponent hit trip aces on the flop, and bet them small all the way down the line.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      54   15    35        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,716,668
2020 balance: $1,899,000
balance: $63,707,010

Fourth min cash in a row

Last night, I realized the folly of my resolution to standardize on a buy in. The problem is not in the theory, it's in the practice. I already need to wait until enough time has elapsed in the late registration period before I can join any tournament; if I also must first wait for a tournament with the correct buy in to come on offer, that adds up to more waiting than I'm willing to accept. Accordingly, I'm scrapping the resolution.

In other news, I min cashed my fourth tournament in a row.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6      64   18    16   139000

delta: $39,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,916,668
2020 balance: $2,099,000
balance: $63,907,010

Standardizing on a buy in

Back in the days when I played sit and gos, I realized that it made a lot of sense to standardize on a buy in; if you don't, then a loss in a big buy in sit and go can wipe out all the gains you made in a bunch of small buy in sit and gos. That's like mixing apples and oranges, generally not a smart idea. The same is true, to a lesser extent, for MTT NLHEs. Accordingly, I'm going to try playing $200,000 buy in tournaments exclusively for a while, and see how I do. Last night, I had my third min cash in a row, but since it was a $200,000 buy in tournament, I actually made a decent profit.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      70   18    18   304000

delta: $104,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,877,668
2020 balance: $2,060,000
balance: $63,868,010

Under the radar

When you've been on a losing streak, min cashes start to look pretty good. They stop the bleeding :-) It's never my objective just to min cash, but I've figured out a good strategy for doing so just the same, simply by observation. It's this: enter a tournament with only a minute or two left in the late registration period, and then stay under the radar as long as you can. A simple strategy to state, and sometimes simple to execute. I was able to execute it perfectly last night.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     115   30    25    77000

delta: $27,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,773,668
2020 balance: $1,956,000
balance: $63,764,010

10k the hard way

The title of this post is a snowclone of the title of the post I wrote on October 30, 2016; here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

I generally play multiple MTT NLHEs per session, and always know where I am profit-wise. When I start the session with a failure to make the money, I know that each subsequent failure will make it that much harder for me to turn a profit. On Friday night, I started out with three failures, but was able to recoup my losses in the final tournament I played, with a little profit to spare. I call that making 16k the hard way :-)

Last night, I started out with one failure, but was able to recoup my losses in the second tournament, with a little profit to spare. I call that making 10k the hard way :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     130   36    40        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6      88   21    13   110000

delta: $10,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,746,668
2020 balance: $1,929,000
balance: $63,737,010

S.O.S.

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. The first was on February 3, 2017. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

One of the hardest hands to lay down is a set, especially when the board doesn't support a straight, doesn't support a flush, and doesn't support a full house. In such a case, the only hand that can beat yours is a better set. That boils down to someone having been dealt a better pocket pair than yours. That situation is called "set over set". I call it S.O.S. for short :-)

Last night, I hit the rail on my final hand of the night on an S.O.S. I was dealt pocket nines and hit a set on the flop. I had an opponent who'd been dealt pocket tens dominated, but he spiked a ten on the river. Whatcha gonna do?

In other news, I've lost $925,000 in my last 5 sessions. Time to right the ship :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     126   30    38        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      62   18    24        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,736,668
2020 balance: $1,919,000
balance: $63,727,010

Can a lost cause be its own salvation?

I'm 99.99% sure this is the first time I've ever used a question as a blog post title. It's not a rhetorical question, by the way. It has an answer, and I believe the answer is yes. Let me explain. Last night, after a certain point, I was sure the first tournament I'd entered was a lost cause. Accordingly, I entered another, while still playing out the first. I promptly hit the rail in the second one. Still believing the first to be a lost cause, I entered a third. I lasted more hands in the third than I had in the second, but still wound up hitting the rail. Still alive in the first, I finally realized it wasn't a lost cause after all; I eventually made the money. I firmly believe that playing the other two tournaments to make up for the lost cause tournament enabled me to play that lost cause tournament in a way that actually maximized my chances of making the money. So the lost cause was indeed its own salvation. Too bad the second and third tournaments turned out to be bona fide lost causes :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     129   36    17   110000
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6      71   18    54        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      68   18    29        0

delta: $-240,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,986,668
2020 balance: $2,169,000
balance: $63,977,010

Play #1

There are many plays to master in poker, but there is only one Play #1. It's the most important play in the book. It can be stated in six words:

Fold your aces when you must.

Without this play in your arsenal, you're doomed to failure. Last night, I received pocket rockets three times. The first time, I won a good-sized pot with them. The second time, before I even had a chance to bet them, everybody else had folded. The third time, I executed Play #1. The river put an open-ended straight draw on the board, and I had no choice but to fold. I received immediate confirmation that I'd made the correct play, since two players went to showdown and one of them had the straight. I wasn't happy that I'd had to fold, but was happy that I folded. Poker evokes mixed emotions like that on a regular basis :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      65   18    38        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     114   30     7   215000

delta: $-35,000
MTT NLHE balance: $9,226,668
2020 balance: $2,409,000
balance: $64,217,010

All in on 6-max

One of the side benefits of giving up rebuy tournaments is that it means I can completely give up 9-max poker. PokerStars only offers rebuys in 9-max. 6-max is much less wild and wooly than 9-max, and favors skillful players significantly more than 9-max does, in my opinion. So not only am I all in on MTT NLHE, I'm also all in on 6-max :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      77   21    38        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $9,261,668
2020 balance: $2,444,000
balance: $64,252,010

All in on MTT NLHE

So far this year, I've only played one brand of poker - MTT NLHE. My goal is to play only this brand for the whole year. I'm all in on it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      80   21    32        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $9,461,668
2020 balance: $2,644,000
balance: $64,452,010

First Full Monty of the year

Last year, I recorded 20 Full Montys. Last night, I recorded my first one of 2020. Given that I've sworn off rebuy tournaments, a good target to aim for is 10 Full Montys for the year. I'm going for my third straight under the lights finish tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      70   18     3  1254000

delta: $1,054,000
MTT NLHE balance: $9,661,668
2020 balance: $2,844,000
balance: $64,652,010

Caboose boy

For me, the most satisfying tournaments are not the ones where I crush opponents. Rather, they're the ones where opponents are crushing me, but somehow, improbably, I survive. Last night, I played just such a tournament. I wound up under the lights, but there were two separate stages where I was in last place and in grave danger of being eliminated. Just call me caboose boy :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      67   18     5   816000

delta: $616,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,607,668
2020 balance: $1,790,000
balance: $63,598,010

Open-ended exit

When I play MTT NLHE tournaments, I have two main goals. One is a do goal, and the other is a don't goal. The do goal:

Do outlast the late registration period.

The don't goal:

Don't have any regrets.

It's pretty easy to achieve the do goal; simply join the tournament with only a minute or two left in the late registration period :-) It's harder to achieve the don't goal. One way to do it, other than the obvious one of winning the tournament, is to get your money in good on the final hand. You can never regret getting your money in good; that's the gravy train of all good players. Last night, I hit the rail when I failed to hit an open-ended straight draw. That qualifies as getting my money in good enough :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6      88   21    41        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,991,668
2020 balance: $1,174,000
balance: $62,982,010

11 > 19

In poker, as in life, there are times when less is more. The title of this post is shorthand for the following statement:

It's better to join a tournament with 11 minutes left in the late registration period than it is to join that same tournament with 19 minutes left.

Last night, I joined a tournament with 19 minutes left, and suffered the consequences. My anemic percentile of 38.78 is the lowest I've recorded since January 18, 2017. Tonight, I'll definitely wait until the clock has ticked down to 11 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6      98   24    60        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,041,668
2020 balance: $1,224,000
balance: $63,032,010

MTT NLHE blue

My overall blue distance is currently $3,047,400. However, my MTT NLHE blue distance is $0. In other words, my MTT NLHE balance is at an all-time high. That's very likely the only poker style and flavor combo where I'm in the blue. I aim to stay there :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     104   30     8   163000

delta: $113,000
MTT NLHE balance: $8,091,668
2020 balance: $1,274,000
balance: $63,082,010

Stretch goal

The poker achievement I'm most proud of is my itm (in the money) percentage in MTT NLHEs. It's currently .407 (346 for 850). Just looking at tournaments played this year, it's a whopping .727 (8 for 11). My stretch goal for this year is to have a 2020 itm percentage of .500.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     119   30     8   187000

delta: $137,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,978,668
2020 balance: $1,161,000
balance: $62,969,010

Best start to a poker year

Counting last night, I've played 8 sessions so far in 2020, for a profit of over a million play dollars. That's my best start to a poker year ever. Here's a sorted list of my aggregate profit in the first eight sessions of each year:

$1,024,000 2020
  $584,000 2019
  $504,430 2016
  $336,861 2014
  $107,442 2011
   $67,085 2012
   $59,412 2013
   $37,168 2009
      $390 2010
   $-4,600 2017
  $-17,500 2015
 $-874,000 2018

My extrapolated profit for the year is currently $41,642,666. That's not going to happen, but I can still dream it will :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     109   30    16   103000

delta: $53,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,841,668
2020 balance: $1,024,000
balance: $62,832,010

No margin for error

When you enter a tournament with one minute left in the late registration period, as I did last night, you leave yourself with no margin for error. Any mistake will be magnified, since by definition you'll be one of the short stacks. Unfortunately, I fell victim to a fingerfehler. On a hand where I was dealt pocket nines, there was an ace but no nine in the flop. An opponent made a big bet, and I folded. Rather, I was trying to fold, but somehow clicked the call button instead :-( That left my stack on life support, and it gave up the ghost not longer afterward. The silver lining was that the tournament had a $50,000 BI+EF instead of a $200,000 one.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6      77   21    32        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,788,668
2020 balance: $971,000
balance: $62,779,010

Under the lights

Last night, I got under the lights again. Making the money in MTT NLHEs is starting to feel as easy as taking candy from a baby :-) One hand was particularly memorable. I'd flopped a set, bet it big, and got one caller, who was all in at that point. He hit a flush on the turn, making me a big underdog, but then I hit a full house on the river. A classic redraw scenario.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      55   15     5   765000

delta: $565,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,838,668
2020 balance: $1,021,000
balance: $62,829,010

Silly but fun extrapolations

It's silly, but fun, to extrapolate yearly totals at such an early point in the year. Hear are four:

sessions:          305
wagered:   $57,950,000
won:       $85,766,000
profit:    $27,816,000

Last night, I just missed getting under the lights again.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6      95   24     7   209000

delta: $159,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,273,668
2020 balance: $456,000
balance: $62,264,010

Late regging considered essential

The late registration period for an MTT NLHE on PokerStars is 44 minutes long. I've gone back and forth on when's the best time to enter this type of tournament, but am now convinced of when the worst time is - namely, before the late registration period has even begun. If you enter then, you guarantee all of the following:

1. there will be no dead money in the pool when you begin playing; this is bad because the more dead money there is in the pool, the better your chances of making the money
2. there will be a higher percentage of donkeys playing than if you'd joined later; this is bad because donkeys can break you with bad plays
3. you'll need to last the full 44 minutes to have a chance of making the money; this is bad because you're more likely to run into bad luck the longer you play

I think joining any time before half the late registration period has elapsed is non-optimal. Last night, I joined with 11 minutes left in the late registration period, and nearly made it under the lights. I'll give that another try tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      53   15     7   534000

delta: $334,000
MTT NLHE balance: $7,114,668
2020 balance: $297,000
balance: $62,105,010

Just ducky

In poker parlance, ducks are pocket deuces. Last night, I received ducks three times. I think I won with them twice, which is more than could have been expected. If there's anything more satisfying than winning with ducks, it's winning with split ducks - in other words, winning when receiving only one duck and pairing it on the board. I won once with split ducks last night as well.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     109   30    11   132000
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      83   21    31        0

delta: $-118,000
MTT NLHE balance: $6,780,668
2020 balance: $-37,000
balance: $61,771,010

yadtss

Last night, I had yadtss - yet another double-tabling success story. One thing I haven't mentioned about double-tabling is that in general, the buy ins won't be the same. One of the tables will usually have a significantly higher buy in than the other. One will be the big brother, and the other the little brother. That was the case again last night. Despite the disparity, each brother has the other one's back :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      83   21    14   404000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     105   30    10   127000

delta: $281,000
MTT NLHE balance: $6,898,668
2020 balance: $81,000
balance: $61,889,010

Self-sabotage

In a conservative estimate, I've made one million separate decisions in my online poker career. The actual number is probably closer to double that. The number of times I've meant to make one decision, but perversely made another, is certainly under 100, but isn't 0. I'm not talking about fingerfehlers; I'm talking about my subconscious refusing to obey my conscious will. In other words, self-sabotage. On the final decision of last night's session, I fully intended to fold, but called instead. That took me to the rail when I was within shouting distance of the money. I think I know why my subconscious took this enemy action - it was late, and I needed to get to bed :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6      82   21    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $6,617,668
2020 balance: $-200,000
balance: $61,608,010

My 2019 poker year in review

Exactly one year ago today, I set myself the following goals for 2019:

- wager $90,000,000
- win $100,0000,000
- make a profit of $10,000,000

Here's how I did:

- I wagered $76,100,000
- I won $91,373,750
- I made a profit of $15,273,750

So I give myself an A on the year.

Here are my goals for 2020:

- wager $60,000,000
- win $72,0000,000
- make a profit of $12,000,000

The reason I'm setting all three goals below this year's levels is that I'm promising myself not to enter any rebuy tournaments at all in 2020 :-)


style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6      88   21    48        0


delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $6,817,668
2019 balance: $15,273,750
balance: $61,808,010