I hope I shall arrive soon

I've appropriated the title of a wonderful science fiction short story by Philip K. Dick for the title of this blog post. Here's the plot summary of "I Hope I Shall Arrive Soon", from Wikipedia:

In the story, a man (Victor Kemmings) regains consciousness during a failed attempt at cryosleep on board a spaceship. The ship's artificial intelligence cannot repair the malfunction and cannot wake him, so Kemmings is doomed to remain conscious but paralyzed through the ship's entire ten-year-long journey. To maintain his sanity, the A.I. replays Kemmings's memories to him. But when this goes awry, the ship's A.I. asks Kemmings what he wants most -- and the answer is that Kemming wants the trip to be over and to arrive at his new home. The A.I. constructs such a scenario for Kemming and plays it to him over and over for the next ten years. When the ship finally arrives at its destination, Kemming cannot accept reality and believes his arrival to be yet another construction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Hope_I_Shall_Arrive_Soon

Applying this to my poker slump, I hope I shall arrive soon at a winning session :-) I've now lost six sessions in a row, and they comprise my worst six bagger ever, to the tune of 2 million play dollars lost.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      72   15    17        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      54   12    20        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,721,500
2018 balance: $998,000
balance: $46,511,260

Worst five bagger ever

Here's an excerpt of what I had to say in my December 19, 2017 post:

The longer you play poker, the harder it gets to achieve a new personal best or personal worst. Their rarity makes even the personal worsts worth celebrating :-)

I have a new personal worst to celebrate - the worst five bagger of my career. In the last five sessions, I've lost 1.6 million play dollars. As I've said before, it's a luxury to be able to celebrate such huge losses, since I have a stellar history of turning things around and getting back into the blue. I have no doubt I'll turn things around yet again; I just don't know when :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      74   15    45        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,121,500
2018 balance: $1,398,000
balance: $46,911,260

Blue back to two

It's official; I'm in a slump. My blue distance has now ballooned to over 2 million dollars, a level it last reached two months ago. The good thing about blue distances is that any time you reach a level you reached before, you're guaranteed to have an overall balance at least as big as the one you had at the earlier time :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      74   15    41        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    46      73   15    49        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      58   12    34        0

delta: $-850,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,321,500
2018 balance: $1,598,000
balance: $47,111,260

Two more dead and gones

The most succinct way to describe exiting a tournament after drawing dead on the river on your final hand is "dead and gone". Last night, I had two more dead and gones. The second one hurt more than the first, since I was closer to the money. Counting the last two sessions, that's three straight dead and gones. Ouch!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      71   15    25        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      65   15    19        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,171,500
2018 balance: $2,448,000
balance: $47,961,260

Drawing dead on the river

There are many painful ways to exit a tournament, including the way I exited last night. On my final hand, I was a 44.53% dog before the flop, a 31.62% dog after the flop, and had 0% after the turn, meaning I was drawing dead on the river. I contend that of all the streets to be drawing dead on, the river hurts the most, since it means you had a good enough hand not to be drawing dead earlier on, and yet you still had utterly no hope to win. It's akin to fate having a hearty belly laugh at you :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      62   15    21        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,421,500
2018 balance: $2,698,000
balance: $48,211,260

The kitchen sink

One of the things I love about fireworks displays is that they feature grand finales, where ridiculously more fireworks are launched at the very end of a show than were launched at any previous point. One of my high school friends called this the "kitchen sink" ending, where the pyrotechnic team is launching everything into the sky, figuratively including the kitchen sink.

Last night, the one tournament I played had a "kitchen sink" ending for me. The absolute values of the hand deltas of my last four hands, two of which I won and two of which I lost, all fell within the top five absolute value hand deltas of the tournament. Kaboom! Unfortunately, I didn't make the money. Still, the pyrotechnics were a lot of fun.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    81      67   15    24        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,571,500
2018 balance: $2,848,000
balance: $48,361,260

The mountain

A few sessions ago, I was expecting a mountain of money to be coming my way; last night, it did. Interestingly, the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session resembles a mountain; it rises up from the ground, stays above ground for a lengthy distance, then falls back again, never to return :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   125      86   18     5  1085000

delta: $935,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,721,500
2018 balance: $2,998,000
balance: $48,511,260

One hand wonder

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session was quite unusual; at first glance, it looked like I'd only won a single hand. I actually won three, but only the first had any magnitude. It was so big in comparison to the next biggest that I decided to write a utility to calculate the ratio of the top two positive deltas of a tournament, to see where this tournament stacked up. I had a gut feeling that it had produced the biggest such ratio of my MTT-R NLHE career, and I was right. Here are the top 10:

58.238095 (6115  105) 2018/0220/a
34.260000 (5139  150) 2017/1205/a
27.400000 (1370   50) 2017/0829/b
17.400000 (4350  250) 2017/0621/a
 6.458333 (2325  360) 2017/0812/a
 4.774194 (7400 1550) 2017/0727/b
 4.725926 (3190  675) 2017/0806/a
 4.333333 (3900  900) 2017/0703/c
 4.107692 (2670  650) 2017/0611/a
 3.854128 (8217 2132) 2017/0825/b

That's about the best I can say of last night's tournament :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      65   15    43        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,786,500
2018 balance: $2,063,000
balance: $47,576,260

Live by the sword ...

Cowboys (pocket kings) were very good to me last night, as long as they were in my hand :-) I had them twice, winning 8,800 chips the first time and 16,800 the second. Those two chip infusions enabled me to make the money, although just barely. On my final hand of the night, as fate would have it, I lost to cowboys. Live by the sword, die by the sword :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    76      67   15    15   337000

delta: $37,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,886,500
2018 balance: $2,163,000
balance: $47,676,260

The canonical cooler goodbye

The canonical cooler is when you're dealt pocket kings and one of your opponents is dealt pocket aces. So far in my MTT-R NLHE career, that's happened to me 3 times in 25,385 hands. Not surprisingly, I lost all 3. The canonical cooler goodbye is when you hit the rail on a canonical cooler. That's happened to me just once, and the one time happened to be last night. I'm telling you, I feel a mountain of money heading my way :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      57   12    34        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,849,500
2018 balance: $2,126,000
balance: $47,639,260

yabg

It's been awhile since I coined a new "yet another" acronym, so let me introduce yabg; it stands for "yet another big goodbye". Last night I had one. I was dealt a suited big slick, called to go all in on the river, and lost to a pair of fours. For the record, I was a 48.55% underdog before the flop, a 57.78% favorite after the flop, and a 43.18% underdog after the turn.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      63   15    37        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,949,500
2018 balance: $2,226,000
balance: $47,739,260

The big goodbye

I first used this blog post title on March 2, 2016. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

There are several ways to exit a sit and go tournament. You can go out with a bang, a whimper, or something in between. Personally, I like to go out with a bang :-) I call that the big goodbye. My definition of a big goodbye is when the absolute value of your final hand delta is the largest absolute value of any of your hand deltas in the tournament.

I no longer play sit and gos, but the concept applies equally well to MTTs. However, I'll tweak it a bit. My new definition of a big goodbye is when the absolute value of your final hand delta is the largest absolute value of any of your negative hand deltas in the tournament. By that definiition, I had a big goodbye on Thursday night. Big goodbyes are not a bad thing at all; they show you have heart, and are willing to take a big risk for a big reward.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    67      72   15    24        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,199,500
2018 balance: $2,476,000
balance: $47,989,260

Into thin air

I first used this blog post title on August 20, 2013; here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

I haven't read Jon Krakauer's 1997 nonfiction bestseller "Into Thin Air" yet, but it's on my bucket list. It has a hell of a title, and I have no qualms about using that title for this post. In poker, you're traveling into thin air when you stop winning pots. Won pots supply you with the oxygen you need to survive. Without them, you're a goner.

I still haven't read the book, but went into thin air at the poker table again last night. I won just one pot in 39 hands. I was surprised to discover this, since I wasn't playing badly. The truth is, you don't have to play badly to get a result like this, although it helps :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    39      56   12    38        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,399,500
2018 balance: $2,676,000
balance: $48,189,260

Tiny fields considered harmful

Even though the money up top in MTT-R NLHEs is gigantic, the field sizes are never that big. Of the 335 I've played to date, only one topped 100 entries. The average field size is 65. Last night, I played in a tournament with a tiny field - just 25. Only 5 places were paid, which meant you could make it under the lights and not actually make the money. I didn't even make it under the lights :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      25    5    15        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,699,500
2018 balance: $2,976,000
balance: $48,489,260

The invisible flush

Boards which support flushes are easier to spot, generally speaking, than boards which support straights. Sometimes, however, they're devilishly difficult to spot. Last night, I hit the felt for the first time when I failed to spot that the board supported a flush. The board was as follows:

9s 9d 8h 5s 8s

I missed the flush support for three reasons:

1. it was a backdoor flush (i.e., it required running cards on the turn and the river)
2. the first flush card was in the window, as far as possible from the other two flush cards
3. I was distracted by the fact that the board made two pair

The upshot? I was beaten by an "invisible" flush :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      58   12    22        0 

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,849,500
2018 balance: $3,126,000
balance: $48,639,260

Cowboys into the sunset

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. I hit the rail in the only tournament I played last night with a very strong hand - pocket kings, aka cowboys. I rode those cowboys into the sunset :-) An opponent with AQo (ace queen offsuit) flopped aces up, and they held. Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      65   15    35        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,249,500
2018 balance: $3,526,000
balance: $49,039,260

Little fire

This is the second time I've used this blog post title; the first was on August 31, 2012. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

The title of this post applies to the final tournament I entered last night, and also to me personally. My name, which is a Welsh one, translates to "little fire". Last night, in the final tournament, my stack dwindled down at one point to a very little fire which should have been easily put out by my three opponents. All they needed to do was briefly cooperate to stamp out my little fire, then go back to being competitors. However, they failed to do so.

Last night, I got under the lights. When I made it to three handed play, I was a huge underdog. One of my opponents had 339,575 chips, the other had 191,338, and I had just 28,087, a meager 5% of the total. My little fire should have been easily put out by my two opponents. All they needed to do was briefly cooperate to stamp it out, then go back to being competitors. However, they failed to do so. By laddering up from 3rd to 2nd, I made an extra $624,000 in profit. I'm back in the blue, baby!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   177      65   15     2  2654000

delta: $2,454,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,349,500
2018 balance: $3,626,000
balance: $49,139,260

Third largest rebound ever

Last night, I had my third largest rebound ever - $550,000. I'm still waiting to have a million dollar rebound, but I'll be happy if I never get the chance. The only way to get such a chance is to lose at least a million play dollars in a single session, which is certainly not something you should be rooting yourself on to do :-) For the record, of the 2,395 poker sessions I've played so far in my career, I've only lost a million in two.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   104      63   15     5   848000

delta: $598,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,895,500
2018 balance: $1,172,000
balance: $46,685,260

Mr. Ladder Up

Tonight I wrote the ladder up utilities I was talking about. The results are impressive, if I do say so myself. In the 64 MTT-R NLHE final tables I've made, I've laddered up in 35, stayed at the same rung in 22, and laddered down in just 7. My aggregate ladder up number is 72, which averages to slightly more than one rung per final table. The numbers also revealed a stunning result I hadn't been aware of - in the first MTT-R where I came in first, I laddered up 8 rungs, going from worst to first.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      81   18    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      57   12    31        0

delta: $-550,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,297,500
2018 balance: $574,000
balance: $46,087,260

Under the lights

Last night, I got under the lights again. It never gets old :-) That ended a streak of 10 straight tournaments where I failed to get under the lights. My longest such streak is 20 straight. I started the final table in 9th place, and was able to ladder up two spots. Laddering down is also possible; I'm sure I've done that a fair number of times. At some point I'll write a utility to figure out how often. I'll also write a utility to figure out my aggregate final table laddering number, be it up or down.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    85      69   15     7   539000

delta: $439,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,847,500
2018 balance: $1,124,000
balance: $46,637,260

Lone bright spot

Sometimes, it takes a lot of searching to find something positive to say about the previous night's session. That was certainly the case tonight. After much effort, I finally found something. It's not much, but it's the best I could come up with; here it is: last night, although I failed to make the money, I had a high chaparral count of 1. That means that my largest positive delta was larger than the absolute value of my largest negative delta. Just for fun, I looked up my highest high chaparral count for MTT-R NLHEs where I failed to make the money - it's 4, and I've achieved that four times.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      69   15    31        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,408,500
2018 balance: $685,000
balance: $46,198,260

Final hand fall in

Last night, I made the money in the only tournament I entered, and bubbled the final table. On my final hand, I fell in, since I was in the small blind, and had less than a small blind's worth of chips left. Falling in on your final hand of a tournament doesn't have to be a bad thing, and wasn't in this case. When you've made the money, and are trying to ladder up, fall ins are more common.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   101      63   15    10   343000

delta: $43,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,658,500
2018 balance: $935,000
balance: $46,448,260

One pot wonder

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, one thing stands out immediately - I won only one pot in 45 hands. On the plus side, I only went to showdown 3 times :-) I hit the rail in painful fashion - an opponent hit a five outer on the river. 12 of my last 13 sessions have been losing ones. I feel my luck is about to change. We'll see :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      62   15    35        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,615,500
2018 balance: $892,000
balance: $46,405,260

Maoiee wowie

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. The first was way back on August 17, 2011. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say then:

Last night, I met a player I'll call Maoiee. Strictly speaking, a more accurate moniker would be M.A.O.I.E.E. - short for the Most Aggressive Opponent I've Ever Encountered. All I can say is, wowie!

Last night, I encountered the new Maoiee. He fired 45 bullets in the second tournament I entered, for a total outlay of 2,250,000 play dollars wagered. He would have had to come in second place to turn a profit, and he didn't even make the money, finishing in 45th place. I also failed to make the money, but I fired way fewer bullets (13), and came much closer (23rd place). It was sheer fiscal irresponsibility on his part to fire so many bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      72   15    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      67   15    23        0

delta: $-900,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,865,500
2018 balance: $1,142,000
balance: $46,655,260

Another personal borscht

Last night, I had another personal borscht. This time, it was the least play money lost in four straight losing sessions of MTT-R NLHE (505,000). The most I've ever lost in four straight losing sessions of MTT-R NLHE is 1,550,000.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      74   15    15   295000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      65   15    24        0

delta: $-105,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,765,500
2018 balance: $2,042,000
balance: $47,555,260

70s streak

Last night, I missed the money with a percentile north of 70 once again. That makes 3 tournaments in a row. This bodes well for the future, although I must confess that the fact that I had such a high percentile last night was largely due to a trackpad glitch. On one hand I had king rag, and someone acting before me went all in with a largish bet. I was trying to move the cursor from the call button to the fold button, but my laptop's trackpad decided I'd clicked on the call button, so I inadvertently called. I was up against an ace, but luckily paired my king on the river. I need to learn to move the cursor off the call button before it's my turn to act, so this mistake can't happen again.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      50   12    14        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,870,500
2018 balance: $2,147,000
balance: $47,660,260

.5423

Every so often, I find it hard to come up with an angle for the evening's blog post. I have several solutions to this problem. A common one is to look at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the previous night's session, and see what springs to mind. Another is not to write about the previous session at all, but to write about some poker statistic, spanning multiple sessions, instead. That's the solution I'll adopt tonight.

.5423 is the current rate at which I add on in MTT-R NLHEs; it also happens to be my career low in this statistic. As I've stated before, I aim to get this rate below .500. How soon can that be achieved? Let me work that out ...

If I keep up both my 2018 pace of playing MTT-R NLHEs and my 2018 pace of not adding on, by the end of the year, my add on rate will be down to .4562.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      69   15    19        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,970,500
2018 balance: $2,247,000
balance: $47,760,260