That 70s ratio

Last night, I only played one tournament, and failed to make the money. That's a failure, right? Actually, not necessarily. It would only be a failure if I failed to play well, and that wasn't the case. I've come up with a gold standard for measuring whether or not I played well. It's simply this: if my percentile was greater than my average percentile, I played well, whether or not I made the money. My average percentile is 65, and my percentile in last night's tournament was a squeak over 70.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    70      54   12    16        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,170,500
2018 balance: $2,447,000
balance: $47,960,260

Ladder boy

Last night, I came back with a vengeance; I nearly got all the way back into the blue in one fell swoop. I had my 11th best MTT-R NLHE ever. Interestingly, I didn't add on; indeed, of my top 11 MTT-R NLHEs, I added on in just two of them.

When the final table began, I was in 5th place; I laddered up to 2nd. Just call me ladder boy :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      51   12    35        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   143      46   12     2  1923000

delta: $1,473,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,270,500
2018 balance: $2,547,000
balance: $48,060,260

Fourth worst six bagger

My losing streak continues apace; it reached six in a row last night. This is the fourth worst six bagger of my career; my aggregate loss over that stretch is 1,490,000 play dollars. The funny thing is, I'm actually playing quite well :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    72      39    8    14        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,797,500
2018 balance: $1,074,000
balance: $46,587,260

Bulletfest

Before Friday night's session, the most bullets I'd ever fired in a single tournament was 10, and the most bullets I'd ever fired in a single session was 16. I exceeded both of those records on Friday night, firing 12 bullets and 17 bullets, respectively. Although I didn't make a profit on the session, I was quite proud to have made a small profit on the second tournament, which was the one where I fired 12 bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    31      67   15    39        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      58   12     7   610000

delta: $-240,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,947,500
2018 balance: $1,224,000
balance: $46,737,260

7th worst four bagger

In the last four sessions, I've lost 1,100,000 play dollars, tying for the 7th worst four bagger of my career. The good news is that my 2018 balance is still solidly in the black. My extrapolated profit for the year is north of 20 million; things could be a lot worse :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      55   12    30        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,187,500
2018 balance: $1,464,000
balance: $46,977,260

Aces out

This is the umpteenth time I've used this blog post title. Last night, in the first tournament I played, I had another aces out. I was dealt pocket rockets, called all in preflop, and went to the river against three opponents. Before the flop, I was a 62.29% favorite, and the other players were 4.35%,  12.47%, and 19.46% dogs. After the flop, I was a 3.78% dog, since one of my opponents had flopped a set of eights. Ouch!

In the last three sessions, I've lost 750,000 play dollars. As bad as that might seem, it only makes it to 24th place on my all-time list. I have a hunch I'm going to make some dough tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      74   15    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      63   15    29        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,537,500
2018 balance: $1,814,000
balance: $47,327,260

All quiet on the western front

I don't have a lot to say about last night's session. It was fairly unremarkable. I played two tournaments, and didn't make the money in either of them. The most striking thing that happened was that by not adding on in either one, I brought my added on percentage down to a new all-time low - 54.69. As I've mentioned, I'm aiming to get it well below 50. There just aren't that many times when adding on makes sense.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      64   15    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    39      66   15    35        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,837,500
2018 balance: $2,114,000
balance: $47,627,260

Turnabout is fair play

Lately, I've been on the lucky end of several bad beats, so I was due to switch ends :-) That happened last night, when I hit the rail with a really strong hand. I'd been dealt pocket kings, and was up against pocket eights and pocket nines. The flop came 3h Ac 5d, at which point I was an 81.17% favorite to win the hand. The turn was the five of diamonds, at which point I was a 90.48% favorite. Each opponent had only two outs, and I had 38. Unfortunately for me, the pocket nines spiked a set on the river. At least I had the satisfaction of outlasting a bunch of the usual suspects :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      59   12    24        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,137,500
2018 balance: $2,414,000
balance: $47,927,260

Saved by Broadway

This is the second time I've used this title. The first was on December 25, 2015; here's what I had to say then:

Playing a sit and go is much like canoeing down a river which has some dangerous whitewater sections. Much of the time, you're not in any danger; however, there are periods of intense danger which you must survive if you're going to make it all the way to the sea. Sometimes, you're forced to throw caution to the winds. That's what happened to me on hand 9 of the second tournament I entered last night. I'd been dealt a big slick (ace king), and called a big pre-flop bet to go all in. I spiked a jack on the river to complete Broadway (an ace high straight). Saved by Broadway - what a great feeling :-) That allowed me to play 35 more hands, come in 3rd, and make a healthy profit on my investment.

Last night, I was saved by Broadway once again. As before, I'd been dealt a big slick. This time, I spiked a ten on the river to complete Broadway. That allowed me to play 57 more hands, come in 4th, and make an extremely healthy profit on my investment :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   130      83   18     4  1671000

delta: $1,521,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,287,500
2018 balance: $2,564,000
balance: $48,077,260

Deluxe redraw fatty

On Friday night, I was on the good end of a deluxe redraw in the first tournament I played. On hand 27, I was dealt Jd Ts. The opponent who ended up going to showdown with me was dealt As Jh. Before the flop, I was a 27.71% dog. The flop came 3d Jc Td, which made me an 85.25% favorite. My opponent put me all in and I called. The turn was the ace of diamonds, making me a 25% dog. I spiked the ten of clubs on the river, completing a fatty (a full house) and winning me the pot. My opponent's chat comment? "booo" :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      87   18    13   390000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    94      72   15    18        0

delta: $-10,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,766,500
2018 balance: $1,043,000
balance: $46,556,260

Icarus splash

My October 20, 2011 post entitled "Dolphin leap" commenced thus:

In keeping with my recent use of aquatic metaphor, I ended last night's session with a dolphin leap. That is, I was underwater for most of the session, but managed to leap out of the water and into the sunlight at the end.

In this post I'll describe the opposite of a dolphin leap; I call it an Icarus splash. An Icarus splash is when you've been above water the whole tournament, but exit in a New York minute on the final hand. Last night, I suffered an Icarus splash; I made a flush but lost to a full house. I had the suspicion it was the only MTT-R NLHE Icarus splash I'd ever suffered, but I was wrong; I've actually had six of them in my career.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      70   15    51        0

?delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,776,500
2018 balance: $1,053,000
balance: $46,566,260

Three stable numbers

I've now played over 300 MTT-R NLHE tournaments, which is a good sample size. As it turns out, there are three numbers I care about which have been remarkably stable for a long time. They are:

1. percentile
2. making the money percentage
3. making the final table percentage

As I've noted more than once, my percentile is stable at 65. My making the money percentage is stable at 35. Finally, my making the final table percentage is stable at 20. Long may these numbers wave :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      78   18    11   365000

delta: $265,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,876,500
2018 balance: $1,153,000
balance: $46,666,260

Valiant comeback

I really love it when I get to play heads up in a tournament. So far in MTT-R NLHEs, that's happened to me eight times, including last night's session. When heads up play started, I had 99,960 chips to my opponent's 413,040, so he had more than a 4 to 1 chip advantage. I hunkered down, and eventually took over the chip lead. I came so close to winning. On hand 185, I had my opponent all in and was a 68.18% favorite after the turn, but it wasn't meant to be. Still, I made over 2 million in profit on the night and got my overall balance back into the blue. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   197      61   15     2  2432000

delta: $2,332,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,611,500
2018 balance: $888,000
balance: $46,401,260

40 outs

I don't often indulge in bad beat sob stories, so you should humor me on the rare occasions when I do (such as now). Let me start with a definition. An out in poker is any card which will win the hand for you. Where the rubber generally meets the road in poker is on the river. When you're up against a single opponent, and are waiting for the river card to peel off the deck, there are 44 different cards it could be, since you and your opponent each have 2 cards, 4 community cards have already been dealt, and there are 52 cards in the deck. Last night, on the final hand of the first tournament I played, I had 40 outs after the turn. There were only 4 cards which I had to fade. In other words, I was a 10 to 1 favorite. You already know what the outcome was; my opponent spiked one of those 4 cards, and I was out. What made it even more painful was that I was close to the money, and would almost assuredly have made it there had I won that hand.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      53   12    15        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      58   12    29        0 

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,279,500
2018 balance: $-1,444,000
balance: $44,069,260

When less is more

Last night, I had another losing session. Despite that fact, I actually lowered my extrapolated loss for the year. How was that possible? For the simple reason that I didn't play the night before last, so last night's loss was spread out over two days. The average loss over those two days turned out to be less than my average loss over the first twelve days of the year. If I stopped playing for the rest of the year, my extrapolated loss would drop like a stone every day :-) Of course, that would also guarantee a loss on the year, and that's something I could never stomach. Knock on wood, I haven't had an unprofitable year since I started playing online poker over nine years ago.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   101      66   15    13   263000

delta: $-137,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,579,500
2018 balance: $-1,144,000
balance: $44,369,260

In-session rebound

On Friday night, I had a big in-session rebound; I lost $400,000 on the first tournament, and won $467,000 on the second. My current 2018 balance is $-1,007,000. If I keep up this pace, I'll lose over 30 million play dollars this year. Luckily, that isn't very likely :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    55      74   15    39        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    76      56   12     8   567000

delta: $67,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,716,500
2018 balance: $-1,007,000
balance: $44,506,260

Consolations

I played one tournament last night, and narrowly missed making the money. On my final hand, I was a 66.73% favorite before the flop, an 83.54% favorite after the flop, and an 84.09% favorite after the turn. However, it wasn't meant to be; my opponent hit a 7 outer on the river, and I was gone. I came away with three consolations:

1. I had fun
2. I played well
3. I lasted longer than most of the usual suspects

They were sufficient compensation :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      68   15    19        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,649,500
2018 balance: $-1,074,000
balance: $44,439,260

Deluxe redraw

In poker parlance, a redraw is when one player is ahead of another after the flop, the places get reversed on the turn, and then the places get reversed again on the river. In my parlance, a deluxe redraw is when one player is ahead of another before the flop, the places get reversed on the flop, the places get reversed again on the turn, and finally the places get reversed yet again on the river.

Last night, I was the beneficiary of a deluxe redraw on a hand where I went all in after the flop. Before the flop, I was a 40.59% dog. After the flop, I was a 77.17% favorite. After the turn, I was a 9.09% dog. After the river, I was a 100% favorite :-) For the record, my winning hand was a full house of jacks full of sevens, and it gave me just enough momentum to make the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      70   15    43        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      44    9     9   284000

delta: $-166,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,849,500
2018 balance: $-874,000
balance: $44,639,260

Mr. 65th percentile

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. My average percentile in MTT-Rs is amazingly consistent; for the last 75 tournaments, it's been locked in at the 65th. Considering that the average percentile for making the money is the 77th, what this means is that the only reason I'm making money playing MTT-Rs is that I have enough variance in my results, even though the average is so consistent. Variance is actually the lifeblood of poker :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    28      70   15    36        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      52   12    20        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,015,500
2018 balance: $-708,000
balance: $44,805,260

My itchy trigger finger

Last night, I fired another 9 bullets. This time, I made the money, and actually turned a profit:-) That established a new personal best for me - the most bullets fired in a single tournament where I made a profit. I can explain why I sometimes have such an itchy trigger finger; it's actually quite simple. I always believe I have the ability to win the tournament. You can't manufacture that kind of confidence, but you can acquire it by achieving consistent results.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   109      63   15     6   742000

delta: $292,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,215,500
2018 balance: $-508,000
balance: $45,005,260

15 bullets

On Friday night, I fired 15 bullets over the course of two MTT-R NLHEs. That's the second most I've ever fired in a single session. I failed to make the money in either tournament. I lost three quarters of a million play dollars, and my blue distance moved north of one million again. All that said, I didn't play too badly. Probably the worst part of my play was deciding to fire so many bullets :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      69   15    50        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    69      53   12    24        0

delta: $-750,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,923,500
2018 balance: $-800,000
balance: $44,713,260

The Janus street

Here's an excerpt of what I had to say about Janus on April 21st of last year:

Janus was the Roman god of duality, among other things. There is no hand in poker with more of a dual nature than pocket aces. I hereby dub it the Janus hand :-)

For this post, I'm going to talk about the dual nature of a different poker construct - namely, the street. The Janus street in poker is the final one, i.e. the river. On the river, the very card that makes you can also break you. When this happens, it's brutal. On my final hand of last night's session, the river was very cruel to me. It completed a flush for me, but also completed a full house for my opponent. Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      59   12    36        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,673,500
2018 balance: $-50,000
balance: $45,463,260

Timeliest tournament hand ever

The best hand you can receive in hold'em is pocket aces, and the best time to receive them is when you're in the big blind. No one will credit you with having them. It's even better when your tournament life is at stake. Getting rockets in that situation, when you so desperately need them, is like being saved by the cavalry. Last night, in the second MTT-R NLHE I played, I got rockets when in dire straights; I was in the big blind as the short stack, and the ante plus the big blind put me all in. If I hadn't won the hand, I would have hit the rail. I'm sure that was the timeliest hand I've ever caught in a tournament.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      62   15    22        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    90      69   15     8   443000

delta: $-107,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,873,500
2018 balance: $150,000
balance: $45,663,260

Silly (but fun) extrapolations

With a sample size of just two data points this year, it makes no sense at all to use them for the purposes of extrapolation. Is that going to stop me, though? No :-) Here are the results:

extrapolated amount wagered for the year: $191,625,000
extrapolated winnings for the year:       $238,527,500
extrapolated profit for the year:          $46,902,500

Of course, since I've played every day so far this year, I'd have to play every day all year long to have a shot at hitting these extrapolations.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      81   18    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   124      64   15     4  1307000

delta: $957,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,980,500
2018 balance: $257,000
balance: $45,770,260

Biggest reverse rebound ever

Over the years, I've had various takes on what constitutes a poker rebound. Eventually I gravitated to looking at two consecutive sessions, a losing one followed by a winning one, and using the following formula:

rebound = min(abs(losing_session_delta), winning_session_delta)

What I'd never considered before was a reverse rebound. That still involves two consecutive sessions, but this time it's a winning one followed by a losing one; the formula is the same. Last night, I achieved my biggest reverse rebound ever - a whopping $700,000. Not a very auspicious way to start the new poker year :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      74   15    28        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      66   15    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    69      63   15    27        0

delta: $-700,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,023,500
2018 balance: $-700,000
balance: $44,813,260

Ending with a bang

Last night, I played with a sense of urgency, since it was my final session of 2017. I was trying to achieve a really big profit so I could reach $100,000,000 in winnings for the year. I came close, getting my overall balance back into the blue, and ending the year with a bang.

I have three main poker goals for 2018:

- wager $100,000,000
- win $150,0000,000
- make a profit of $50,000,000

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   106      70   15    14   335000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   146      69   15     4  1496000

delta: $1,531,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,723,500
2017 balance: $34,095,430
balance: $45,513,260