Thursday, November 30, 2017

The optimal number of bullets

I decided to take a look at my MTT-R NLHE data in terms of bullets fired. The results are eye-opening:

bullets   sum(delta)  count        avg

      2  $25,630,500     65   $394,315
      4   $8,864,000     37   $239,567
      3   $2,057,000     75    $27,426
      5     $173,000     30     $5,766
      1     $-50,000      1   $-50,000
      6    $-686,000      6  $-114,333
      7  $-3,186,000     14  $-227,571
      9  $-1,054,000      4  $-263,500
      8    $-800,000      2  $-400,000
     10    $-500,000      1  $-500,000


The conclusions seem clear - never add on, and never rebuy more than three times.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      74   15     6   714000


delta: $614,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,448,500
2017 balance: $30,811,055
balance: $42,228,885

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