The maximum bullets calculus

Last night, in the first MTT-R I played, I fired 7 bullets - 1 buy in, 5 rebuys, and 1 add on. At $50,000 a bullet, that amounted to $350,000. The lowest rung of the money ladder paid $370,000, so I would still have made a profit had I made the money (which, alas, I did not). A good formula for the maximum number of bullets to fire is the largest number which still gives you a profit if you min cash. The problem with this calculus is, at the time you're rebuying, there's no way to know what the final payouts will be, so there's no way to know for sure if min cashing will still give you a profit. Considered in the sober light of day, 7 bullets seems like too many, for sure. The most I'd ever fired in an MTT-R before last night was 6, and I only did that once.

In the second MTT-R I played, I did way better, with 3 fewer bullets; I made it under the lights, and finished in fourth. On the strength of that great finish, my overall balance got back into the blue. These are the good old days, still :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      72   15    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   111      68   15     4  1569000

delta: $1,019,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $5,207,000
2017 balance: $6,146,825
balance: $17,564,655