Friday, May 15, 2015

28 outcomes

My favorite number of sit and gos to play in a session is six. It's not a coincidence that this is the same as the number of players in each sit and go. The basic yardstick you measure your results by is the statistical average of coming in each place once, and only once, in each set of six tournaments played. It's easier to do this measurement when you play a multiple of six tournaments per session. Another benefit of playing the same number of tournaments per session is that it's easier to compare your current performance with your past performances.

Since only the top two places make the money, it turns out that there are 28 possible outcomes when you play six sit and gos. Here they are, in descending order, when the buy in is $45,000, the entry fee is $5,000, the first place prize is $175,500, and the second place prize is $94,500:

 $753,000 6 0
 $672,000 5 1
 $591,000 4 2
 $577,500 5 0
 $510,000 3 3
 $496,500 4 1
 $429,000 2 4
 $415,500 3 2
 $402,000 4 0
 $348,000 1 5
 $334,500 2 3
 $321,000 3 1
 $267,000 0 6
 $253,500 1 4
 $240,000 2 2
 $226,500 3 0
 $172,500 0 5
 $159,000 1 3
 $145,500 2 1
  $78,000 0 4
  $64,500 1 2
  $51,000 2 0
 $-16,500 0 3
 $-30,000 1 1
$-111,000 0 2
$-124,500 1 0
$-205,500 0 1
$-300,000 0 0


The number in the second column is the number of first place finishes, and the number in the third column is the number of second place finishes. It's interesting to note that while there are 22 distinct positive outcomes possible, there are only 6 distinct negative ones.

Last night, I had the minimum loss possible; interestingly, you can only achieve this when you don't come in first place in any of the six tournaments!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    26     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    23     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    47     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    41     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    39     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6     6     5        0


delta: $-16,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,381,300
balance: $9,067,879

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