High end plussed

One of the things which makes poker such a devilishly difficult game to play is that in many cases, players bet the nuts and air exactly the same way. In those cases, you can't use bet sizing to tell you anything. You need to find a read some other way. It's guesswork, plain and simple. Last night, I faced just such a situation on hand 41. I'd been dealt Kd 4d, the flop came Qd Td 2h, the turn was 9h, and the river was Jc. So I started out with a flush draw, and made a king high straight on the river. I was first to act in the final betting round, and bet $2,400. One opponent raised to $12,600, and the other folded. My thought process went like this: "He's betting like he has the high end plus. Odds-wise, that's less likely than that he just has a king high, like me, or even the ignorant end. However, bet-size-wise, his most likely holdings are the high end plus or pure air. I'm betting air". I called with my last $8,901, and he turned over a big slick, the high end plus. I hit the felt. I feel fine with the way I played the hand, though. When either of two holdings can prompt an opponent to bet a certain way, you just have to make a guess as to which holding he actually has. Sometimes your guess will be wrong. Such is poker :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 100 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 11 out of 15 times while in small blind (73%)
 - 47 out of 72 times in other positions (65%)
 - a total of 67 out of 100 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 15 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $-24,289
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,964,543
balance: $7,321,496