Tuesday, May 21, 2013

I'm not such a git after all

It turned out I was being too harsh on myself for losing nearly a million play dollars on fully matured, high card hands. There are many different ways of losing nearly a million play dollars, and it turned out my way wasn't as bad as I'd thought. A refinement to my fully matured hands tool helped me prove this; I added the capability to ignore hands where no money was spent on the river. I realized that a lot of the money I'd lost on high card hands was likely due to draws which didn't pan out. When you're on a draw, you often won't know until the river whether you've made it, and you often have to pay a considerable amount to see the river. When you don't make your draw, there's no sense spending any money after the river card comes off unless you're stone bluffing. Here are my numbers for fully matured hands where I spent money on the river:

    -61970     251741    -313711   247     -250.89   high card
     34262    1537124   -1502862   892       38.41   one pair
   1249117    2930509   -1681392   996     1254.13   two pair
   1312402    2067816    -755414   372     3527.96   three of a kind
   1869556    2389464    -519908   352     5311.24   straight
   1358099    1712298    -354199   256     5305.07   flush
   1551215    1728457    -177242   225     6894.29   full house
    100786     100786          0    16     6299.12   four of a kind
     73800      73800          0     4    18450.00   straight flush
     53200      53200          0     1    53200.00   royal flush

   7540467   12845195   -5304728  3361     2243.52


The money I've lost on high card hands in this scenario is a much saner figure.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 63 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 12 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 22 out of 41 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 38 out of 63 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 14 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $-75,192
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,071,094
balance: $7,520,502

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