Wednesday, March 20, 2013

My worst hand

As you may know, I love doing statistical analyses of my hand histories. For a long time, I've wanted to be able to aggregate my hand deltas by hand type. I recently finished writing a program to do just that, and it revealed a surprising fact. My worst hand, that is, the hand with which I've lost the most money, is ace jack offsuit. Since October 12, 2011, the date I turned on the PokerStars feature which auto-saves the hand histories, I've been dealt ace jack offsuit a total of 201 times. I've never folded this hand pre-flop, so all 201 instances have had a decisive result - either I won chips or lost chips. As it turns out, I've only won with this hand a paltry 56 times, but have lost with it a whopping 145 times. Bear in mind that this doesn't mean I went to showdown every time; some of the losses were the result of spending money on the flop and/or the turn but folding on the turn or the river. The sum of the deltas of the 56 wins comes out to $285,929. The sum of the deltas of the 145 losses comes out to $-596,433. The bottom line is that I've lost a staggering $310,504 with what seems like a very strong hand. This makes a fair amount of sense. With a weaker hand, I wouldn't be tempted to spend so much money on it, and would fold it much more often. With a stronger hand, it would win more often, statistically. So the worst hand sort of has to end up being a hand which is better than most, but not the best. Still, I'm surprised by the magnitude of my losses with this hand; it's an outlier. My next worst hand is ace eight offsuit, and I've only lost $89,905 with that. I'll keep this data in mind the next time I'm dealt my worst hand :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 42 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 2 out of 6 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 14 out of 30 times in other positions (46%)
 - a total of 21 out of 42 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $12,540
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,466,545
balance: $6,915,953

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