You know me; I love coming up with statistical theories related to poker. Here's my latest: if you can finish in the top three places 33% more than you finish in the bottom three places, you'll make a profit. I call this the golden 123 / 456. Right now, I'm hitting it on the nose:
place count(*) count(*) / 280
1 51 0.1821
2 54 0.1929
3 55 0.1964
4 47 0.1679
5 43 0.1536
6 30 0.1071
123/456 = (51 + 54 + 55) / (47 + 43 + 30) = 160 / 120 = 1.333333
Of course, skeptics among you might claim that I came up with this number based on my data. Actually, I did! However, I still think it's a pretty good theory.
buy_in entry_fee num_players num_hands place winnings
50000 800 6 15 4 0
50000 800 6 43 5 0
50000 800 6 36 2 105000
delta: $-47,400
tournament balance: $1,220,090
balance: $6,350,821
Friday, October 5, 2012
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