My next target

On Saturday night, I came close to hitting the $3,000,000 play money mark. When I was approaching $1,000,000, I decided to switch to Omaha once I hit it. When I was approaching $2,000,000, I decided to switch to deuce to the seven triple draw lowball (aka deuce) once I hit it. Now that I'm approaching $3,000,000, I've decided that I'll keep playing no limit Hold'Em, but will set a super aggressive target for the coming year. My goal is to win an additional $3,000,000 in the calendar year following the day I hit $3,000,000.

I know this is doable, because I've kept track of my average session delta per poker flavor and initial stake; here they are, in descending order:

poker_flavor_descr initial_stake_max count(*) sum(s.delta) / count(*)
No Limit Hold'em 40000 114 14975.6842
Pot Limit Hold'em 40000 252 4225.1310
Pot Limit Hold'em 2000 126 852.4921
Pot Limit Omaha 2000 36 614.3889
Limit 7 Card Stud 2000 10 460.6000
No Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball 2000 30 311.3667
Pot Limit Omaha NULL 1 -370.0000
Limit 5 Card Draw 2000 1 -500.0000
Limit 7 Card Stud 8000 3 -535.6667
Limit 7 Card Stud 20000 1 -20000.0000

Rounding up my average per session no limit hold'em delta to $15,000, it should take me 3,000,000 / 15,000 = 200 sessions to amass 3,000,000 play dollars. In 2010, my first full year of keeping poker statistics, I played 208 sessions. So far this year, I've played 238 sessions. So it's safe to say I'll play at least 200 sessions in the next calendar year. Looking over these numbers, what really prevented me from growing my balance as fast as I could was trying out the non Hold'em poker variants.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 77 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 5 out of 11 times while in small blind (45%)
- 34 out of 54 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 47 out of 77 (61%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 17 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $60,768
balance: $2,981,705