Poker is largely about probabilities. The better you understand probability, the better you'll be at poker. One of the most important lessons to learn about probability, counter-intuitive though it might be, is that the improbable always happens, eventually. That's one reason I very rarely go all in.
I have a good innate sense of probability. I don't consciously have to think through every link in a chain of probabilistic reasoning in order to reach a conclusion; I can take shortcuts. For example, if I only have an ace high on the river, and there are several other players still in the hand, I know without having to calculate them that the odds that one of the other players has at least a pair are excellent; I would never dream of calling any bet with such a hand.
Last night, I experienced another first. I won six hands in a row! I kept wanting to call it a night, but I couldn't do that until I'd stopped winning :-) I realize that streak was a statistical anomaly, and wasn't due to any great skill on my part. To be really good at poker, you must embrace two contradictory notions simultaneously -- that the more probable hand will probably win, and that the more improbable hand will improbably win!
During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
- 6 out of 6 times while in small blind (100%)
- 12 out of 14 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 23 out of 26 (88%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 2
delta: $27,300
balance: $973,920
Thursday, November 11, 2010
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