Permission to splurge

It's the final night of 2021. I'm about to play my last session of the year. If you can't go a little nuts on New Year's Eve, when can you? Accordingly, I'm giving myself permission to splurge tonight. I'm going to play at least one Orient Express, and possibly two or three. That means I could lose up to 3 million play dollars tonight. Even if I do, I will still have made a profit of more than 13 million on the year. I'm playing with house money :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      91   24    10   122000
MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      54   15    11   164000

delta: $136,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,449,268
2021 balance: $16,627,500
blue distance: $568,200
balance: $94,292,953

Another when

One of the poker questions for which I will never have a permanent answer is the question of when is the best time to join an MTT. Sometimes, I'm convinced that the answer is before the tournament has officially started. At other times, I'm convinced that the answer is as late in the late registration period as you possibly can. At still other times, I'm convinced the answer is that it doesn't matter at all when you join. I can make plausible cases for each of these viewpoints.

This is an excerpt from last Thursday's post. I realize I left out an important when - namely, as near to when half of the late registration period has elapsed as you possibly can. That would have come in mighty handily last night. There are two problems with joining before a tournament has started:

1. there's no dead money in the prize pool

2. you have less of a chance of outlasting the late registration period

There are also two problems with joining as late in the late registration period as you possibly can:

1. the antes and blinds will be bigger, but your starting stack size won't be

2. there will be more big stacks, and every big stack at your table has the potential to bully you off your hands

Last night, I joined before the tournament had started. It would have been more prudent for me to wait a while before joining. The thing is, I don't like having to wait to play, so I typically don't :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      47   12     -        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,313,268
2021 balance: $16,491,500
blue distance: $704,200
balance: $94,156,953

Jilted by an old girlfriend

The hand I have the most intense love/hate relationship with is the stealth two pair. That's when you're dealt a non-pair and then pair both your hole cards on the flop. It's hard not to fall in love with a hand like that, but your heart can easily get broken. When you have a stealth two pair and lose, it feels like being jilted by an old girlfriend. On the final hand of last night's tournament, I got jilted once again. I was dealt Q6o (queen six offsuit), and the flop had a queen and a six; I don't remember what the third card was, only that it was less than a queen and wasn't a six. All my chips went into the middle. When my opponent turned over KQo (king queen offsuit), I knew I was a healthy favorite.  As fate would have it, though, the turn and river were both kings, giving my opponent a boat, and me the boot.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      75   21    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,513,268
2021 balance: $16,691,500
blue distance: $504,200
balance: $94,356,953

New Year's Eve blue

New Year's Eve is three days away. I have four more poker sessions to play this year, including tonight's. I want to end the year in the blue. In the ten New Year's Eves preceding this one on which I played online poker, I was able to achieve New Year's Eve blue in two of them, 2015 and 2017. I didn't play on New Year's Eve in 2010 and 2012. I plan on playing this New Year's Eve.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE     9000   1000       6     259   72   136        0

delta: $-10,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,713,268
2021 balance: $16,891,500
blue distance: $304,200
balance: $94,556,953

A good bad finish

It goes without saying that if you fail to win a single hand in a tournament, you're virtually guaranteed not to make the money. Not winning a single hand certainly qualifies as a bad finish. It can never be considered a good one. However, can it ever be considered a good bad finish? In other words, can you ever finish high enough to consider that you've beaten the odds, even though you failed? I believe the answer to this is yes. Last night, in the first tournament I entered, I didn't win a single hand. Nevertheless, not only did I outlast the late registration period, I ended up in the 44th percentile.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      68   18    38        0
MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      73   21    24        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,723,268
2021 balance: $16,901,500
blue distance: $294,200
balance: $94,566,953

A perfect double-up

I'm always on the lookout for rare events in my poker data. I found another one looking at last night's numbers. For only the fourth time in 1,505 MTT NLHEs, I made a profit exactly equal to the buy in plus the entry free - in other words, a perfect double-up.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      66   18    10   200000

delta: $100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,973,268
2021 balance: $17,151,500
blue distance: $44,200
balance: $94,816,953

The land of the eights

On Thursday night, I achieved a percentile of 88.888888... In other words, the land of the eights. Fittingly, I finished the tournament in eighth place. I feel confident that's the first time that's ever happened to me :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      72   18     8   563000

delta: $363,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,873,268
2021 balance: $17,051,500
blue distance: $144,200
balance: $94,716,953