A kicker to the head

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the one which put my stack on life support in the first tournament I played. I'd been dealt AQo (ace queen offsuit), and the flop came 2c As Kd. I bet it big, and an opponent I had covered went all in. I called, and immediately saw the bad news - my opponent's holding was AKo (ace king offsuit). I was a 1.92% dog. When the nine of spades came on the turn, I was officially drawing dead. I lost 5,000 chips on the hand, and had just 1,810 behind.

This bad luck made me curious about how many times in my MTT-R NLHE career I've had AQo or AQs and lost to an opponent who had AKo or AKs. I just ran the numbers; the answer is 21. This last one hurt the most.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      97   27    65        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      71   15    25        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,371,000
2019 balance: $6,367,250
balance: $52,951,510

The MTT-R NLHE Mendoza line

The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball in the United States, deriving from the name of shortstop Mario Mendoza, whose poor batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mendoza_Line

Applying this in a poker context, the MTT-R NLHE Mendoza line defines the threshold of incompetent tournament play. Specifically, it's when the number of bullets fired in a tournament exceeds the number of hands won. I achieved this in the first tournament I played last night, in which I fired four bullets but only won a single hand :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      94   27    61        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      59   12    28        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,671,000
2019 balance: $6,667,250
balance: $53,251,510

Not very slick

Last night, I fired four bullets. That was two too many, for the following reason - I never should have gone all in on hand 19. Two players had gone all in preflop before me, and a third had called them; if I called, my hand would be up against three other hands. Those are horrible odds. There's no way I should have called, but I did. I had a suited big slick, and though I had the best chance of anyone to win the hand, it was only a 32.68% chance. Predictably, I lost the hand. I promise to be more selective tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      67   15    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,971,000
2019 balance: $6,967,250
balance: $53,551,510

Fall out

On Monday night, I had a fall out. That's my latest neo neo, describing the situation where you fall in on the final hand of a tournament. I got curious to know how often I fall out of tournaments where I fail to make the money, so I wrote a utility to figure that out. The answer? 10.42% of the time. The closer you get to the bubble, the more likely you are to fall out. The simple reason for this is that the closer you get to the bubble, the more attractive it gets to try laddering up into the money. That's why I fell out on Monday night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      56   12    17        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,171,000
2019 balance: $7,167,250
balance: $53,751,510

Top three

Last night I achieved (if that's the right word for it) a top three in a losing cause. I saw only two flops in 37 hands, for a seeing-the-flop percentage of 5.4, the third smallest of my MTT-R NLHE career. My getting-to-showdown percentage was even smaller - just 2.7. I missed the money by a country mile. On the plus side: yet again, I only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      75   15    55        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,271,000
2019 balance: $7,267,250
balance: $53,851,510

Four freefalls

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of the one tournament I played last night is one of the strangest I've ever seen. In 74 hands, I only had three positive hand deltas; however, each was a significant jump. That means my stack underwent four consecutive freefalls, separated by the jumps. I missed the money by six spots, achieving a percentile slightly north of 71. I'm happy with that, and also with the fact that I only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      74   15    21        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,371,000
2019 balance: $7,367,250
balance: $53,951,510

Pulling the ripcord

The longer I play poker, the more I see the power in minimizing your losses. Over the long haul, poker rewards players who are willing to pull the ripcord when the situation warrants it. There are multiple levels where you can pull the ripcord. The most granular level is the hand. One level coarser than that is the tournament. One level courser than that is the session. The coarsest level of all is the career :-) May I never pull the ripcord on my poker career. On Thursday night, I pulled the ripcord on the first tournament I entered, just after I lost my third and fourth bullets. I'd failed to win a single hand, and didn't want to throw good money after bad.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    28      52   12     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      48   12    23        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,471,000
2019 balance: $7,467,250
balance: $54,051,510