Saturday, June 29, 2013

42.5 million spent

This week I was fighting a cold, and didn't feel well enough to play poker. It's no fun playing when you have a headache! I'm happy to say I'm well on the mend, the headache is gone, and I'll be playing right after finishing this post. The last time I played was Sunday night; I don't remember much about the session, other than that it was a losing one.

What am I crowing about in the title of this post? Simply, about the massive amount of play money I've spent playing cash game no limit hold'em. Just for fun, I wrote a utility to break it down by the 4 betting rounds (before the flop, flop, turn, and river), followed by the percentages; here are the numbers:

     13,204,479   10,694,761   10,434,394    8,191,256   42,524,890
        31.051%      25.149%      24.537%      19.262
%

I was expecting the turn and river percentages to be higher, but the big surprise is that the before the flop percentage is the biggest of them all. At some point, I'll break these numbers down further by winning hands vs. losing hands.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 7 out of 8 times while in small blind (87%)
 - 24 out of 59 times in other positions (40%)
 - a total of 38 out of 76 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-29,474
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,755,445
balance: $7,204,853

Lodden Thinks

by on Thursday 27 December 2012 under Gaming > Other games
This article first appeared in the Jan/Feb 2013 issue of World Gaming magazine.
Lodden Thinks is an amazing game created by degenerate gamblers to pass the time whilst at the poker table. This is just another example of the mindset of some gamblers and the games they play.
Poker players are among the most degenerate of all gamblers, always on the lookout for another opportunity to place a bet. With some poker sessions extending to many hours or even days, many professionals like to keep sharp by entertaining themselves with extracurricular wagers known as "prop betting".

A prop bet, or proposition bet, is an agreed bet made between two people, where one person proposes the matter to be bet upon. The most common prop bet is a coin toss where one person calls heads or tails.
Historically the most common prop bet seen at the poker table has been on the predominant card color, red or black, of the flop (the first three community cards turned over in the center of the table in a hold'em or Omaha poker game). This was an effective way to gamble but in all truthfulness lacked the excitement these gambling machines so craved. The quest for a more exciting prop bet is where this story starts.
In 2008 a group of professional poker players set out to amuse themselves during the World Series of Poker Europe. The brains trust behind Lodden Thinks was the American duo of Antonio Esfandiari and Phil Laak, considered by many as two of the world's craziest punters. Also present was Johnny Lodden, a highly respected Norwegian player who made a huge name for himself playing online poker.
Esfandiari and Laak started to bet on questions of estimation. This is a common thing for gamblers to do – one player will present a "line" for some random matter such as the height of the Eiffel Tower or the cost of a particular item or any other question with a numerical answer, and the other player will take the "over" or "under" on that line.
Esfandiari and Laak became frustrated at the difficulty of finding the answers to certain questions. They then concluded they didn't need to find the answer at all, they could just bet on the opinion of a third person, in their case Johnny Lodden.
Here's how it works:
  • Someone proposes a matter to be bet on. The matter must have a numerical answer. The crazier the matter, the better – you are only limited by your imagination. Try to choose something your "Lodden thinker" will have a strong or strange opinion about. The matter might be the amount of money required for a particular person to do a particular thing, or the number of girls a specific person has slept with, or something random like the number of security cameras in a particular casino.
  • The "Lodden thinker" decides, to the best of his ability, his answer to the question. He then writes it down somewhere (or enters it in his phone), so he can't change his answer after he's heard the bidding and the bets.
  • The players betting then set the line by bidding numbers in turn, higher and higher. When the next player due to bid is not prepared to bid any higher, he automatically takes the "under", and the last bidder takes the "line and over".
  • If there are more than two players involved (remembering the "Lodden thinker" is not a player), the players additional to the line setter and the player who took the "under" decide whether they are betting on the "under" or the "line and over". If there is more than one of these additional players, they must choose in turn.
  • The "Lodden thinker" then reveals his answer and the bets are paid off.
The beauty of playing Lodden Thinks is that you can get a big advantage by understanding how the "Lodden thinker" thinks. Understanding how people think is one of the most important skills at the poker table, so playing Lodden Thinks actually improves your poker game!
If you need some extra mental stimulation during your next tournament, why not give Lodden Thinks a try? You just need yourself, at least one other player and a "Lodden". Your chosen Lodden needs to be impartial, must take his role seriously, and give answers to the best of his ability. Lodden Thinks is also a great game to play amongst a group of friends at a party or whilst enjoying a drink.
This is a fine example of gambling at its purest and it comes as no surprise that it was invented by some of the biggest and "sickest" gamblers of them all.

Lodden Thinks: An Example

There are five players at a poker table: Andrew, Brian, Charlie, Dave and Ed. They choose to play for HK$1,000 a game. The players choose Ed as the "Lodden thinker".
There is an attractive waitress working in the poker room. Someone proposes the question to bet on is, "How many contacts are in the contact list of her mobile phone?"
Next, Ed must decide his answer, to the best of his ability. Ed writes his answer down and doesn't tell anyone. We'll get back to that number later.
The players decide the bidding order will be alphabetical, that is Andrew followed by Brian, then Charlie and lastly Dave. Each bid must be more than the previous bid, until the next person due to bid chooses to take the "under" instead of bidding. Let's say the bidding goes like this:
Andrew:
50 contacts and over
Brian:
80 and over
Charlie:
97 and over
Dave:
112 and over
Andrew:
113 and over
Brian:
20 and over
Charlie: 121 and over
Dave: 122 and over
Andrew: 123 and over

At this point, Brian refuses to bid, and is automatically assigned the "unders". Charlie then has to choose which side of the line he wants, either "under 123" or "123 and over". Let's say he chooses the unders. Dave then has the same choice, and let's say he also chooses the unders
Now it's time to reveal Ed's answer. Remember it doesn't matter how many contacts the attractive waitress actually has in her phone. All that matters is how many Ed thinks she has. Ed shows everyone the number he has written down, which is 157! The "overs" win.
All the players on the "unders" lose HK$1,000 apiece, so Brian, Charlie and Dave each pay HK$1,000, to be shared amongst the winning players. In this case Andrew was the only player on the "overs", so he scoops the pool and wins HK$3,000
- See more at: http://www.worldgamingmag.com/en/gaming/other-games/item/3566-lodden-thinks#sthash.F8lTgXtf.dpuf        13204479   10694761   10434394    8191256   42524890
          31.051     25.149     24.537     19.262

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Even keel session

Some sessions, practically nothing happens. For whatever reason, you don't have any big gains, but you also don't have any big losses. I call these even keel sessions; I had one last night. A good way to identify these sessions is when the average of the absolute values of your session deltas is less than 5 big blinds. Last night, this average came out to 736, well under the 1,000 mark; in fact, it was the tenth lowest such average of my cash game no limit hold'em career.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 58 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 9 times while in big blind (88%)
 - 6 out of 8 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 27 out of 41 times in other positions (65%)
 - a total of 41 out of 58 (70%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $3,089
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,784,919
balance: $7,234,327

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Flush money

Sometimes, when my stack gets a big chip infusion, I feel like quitting for the night so I can realize the profit. Much more often, though, I look at the infusion as funding for me to play longer. Last night, on hand 22, I won a pot worth $32,270 with a queen high flush; $22,290 of this was o.p.m. (other people's money). With this flush money, I played another 62 hands, and ended up with roughly the same profit as I would have had if I'd quit after hand 22. Playing longer increases your chances of winning a monster pot, even it if means winning a bit less than if you'd quit earlier. I like to hold out for the monsters :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 84 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 7 out of 16 times while in small blind (43%)
 - 30 out of 55 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 46 out of 84 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 11 (54%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $21,370
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,781,830
balance: $7,231,238

Friday, June 21, 2013

T2o for the win

As you know, I love poker statistics. I'm always writing tools to calculate new ones. Today, I wrote a tool to figure out which hand has given me the best return on investment. I figured pocket aces would be a shoo-in, but it only made it to number seven on the list. Surprisingly, the hand that made it to the top of this list is a complete rag hand - ten deuce offsuit, or T2o for short. I've been dealt this hand 274 times, spent $62,197 on it, and collected $123,902 with it, for a very healthy 99.21% return on investment. My return on investment for pocket rockets is a comparatively anemic 62.68%. I need to write some more tools to discover how T2o could have fared so well. My guess is that the only times I ever spent significant money on this hand were when I was in the big blind, no one raised before the flop (meaning I got to see the flop without having to make a decision about it), and flopped two pair or a full house.

Last night, I made up for the losses of the night before by having two separate runs of luck.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 44 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 3 out of 6 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 22 out of 33 times in other positions (66%)
 - a total of 29 out of 44 (65%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 6 (83%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $29,023
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,760,460
balance: $7,209,868

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Two oucher

Last night, I hit the felt on a two oucher. That is, a two outer which hurt really bad. I was dealt Ks 5h, and the flop came 6d 5c 5d. I checked, then called a raise to $7,000. The turn was Jd, and an opponent acting before me bet $5,000; I called with my last $4,951. The river was 6h, which gave my opponent, who'd been dealt 9c 6c, a better full house than mine. Only two cards in the deck gave him a winning hand on the river. I was a 95.45% favorite, but lost to the two outer. Ouch!

The good news was that by mistake, I'd joined a table with a $20,000 max starting stack instead of a $40,000 one. I reupped for another $20,000, lost roughly half of that, and called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
 - 8 out of 12 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 27 out of 52 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 42 out of 76 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 10 (30%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-28,099
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,731,437
balance: $7,180,845

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

The crooked straight

I didn't hit the felt last night, but certainly deserved to. On hand 74, I hit the nut straight on the river. No flush was possible, but the board was showing a pair, so a full house was possible. There were three of us still in the hand; I was second to act. The player acting before me, who had both me and the third player covered, went all in. I called, and the third player called after me. Luckily for me, the third player, who had the best holding, started the hand with less chips than me. I avoided the felt by winning a side pot worth $12,634; the third player won the main pot, which was worth a whopping $101,733. He'd hit his full house on the river.

Why do I call my holding a crooked straight? Two reasons:

1. the board was showing a pair
2. I was not the last person to act

If two opponents are willing to go all in when the board is showing a pair, chances are one of them has a full house. Since I was not the last person to act, I couldn't know beforehand whether the third player would call, so I had no business calling myself. It's elementary logic, but I missed it in the heat of the moment.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 15 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 14 out of 17 times while in small blind (82%)
 - 31 out of 54 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 56 out of 86 (65%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 21 (38%)
 Pots won without showdown - 13

delta: $-29,184
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,759,536
balance: $7,208,944

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

The golden agoal

For some reason, I've been focusing on the agoal stat recently. Last night, I had my third decent agoal in a row - 8.14. I have enough data now to figure out if a golden agoal value exists - that is, a value which essentially guarantees a winning session. I just ran the numbers, and the verdict is in. Drumroll, please ...

The golden agoal value is 8. In 152 cash game no limit hold'em sessions where the agoal value was at least 8, 151 of them were winning ones. Case closed. Of course, knowing what the golden agoal is and being able to achieve it are two very different things :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 69 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 3 out of 10 times while in small blind (30%)
 - 23 out of 49 times in other positions (46%)
 - a total of 34 out of 69 (49%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $11,981
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,788,720
balance: $7,238,128