The defensive bet

Betting is highly situational. Whether you bet, and how much you bet, is influenced by a myriad of factors. One of the most interesting bets to have in your arsenal is the defensive bet. That sounds like a contradiction in terms, but it's not. If you're playing against action players, they like nothing better than to be the first one to enter a pot. If an action player is the first to enter a pot, more often than not he'll enter it big. On the other hand, if someone enters the pot before him, he's likely not to bet as big. If you act before an action player, and can size your bet appropriately, you'll end up paying less to see the next card than you otherwise would. So, in effect, you're defending your chips by betting.

Another kind of defensive bet, which is more difficult to pull off, is what I call a side pot bet. That's a maneuver I successfully made on the river last night, on the penultimate hand. A side pot bet is a bet you make to give yourself insurance against losing the main pot. You can only make it when one or more opponents have already gone all in and there is at least one other opponent who is still in the hand with you, who still has chips. The tricky part about side pot bets is that they have to be small enough so people are enticed to call, but big enough to give you as much insurance as possible. It does you no good if no one calls your side pot bet; then the side pot you're trying to create never materializes, and all you're left with is the main pot (and any earlier side pots). When I made my side pot bet last night, there was $37,500 in the main pot. I sized my bet at $3,000. The one opponent who was still live in the hand called me. As it turned out, I won both the $6,000 side pot and the main pot, for a total haul of $43,500. If I'd won the side pot but lost the main pot, I would have lost $9,000 on the hand, but that would have been more palatable than losing the $12,000 I would have lost without the side pot bet. Of course, if I'd lost both the side pot and the main pot, I would have lost $15,000 on the hand. This brings up an important point - if you don't think you have better than a 50/50 chance of winning the side pot, you shouldn't make the side pot bet.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 9 hands and saw flop:
 - 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 5 out of 6 times in other positions (83%)
 - a total of 8 out of 9 (88%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $38,800
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,343,684
balance: $6,793,092

Sneaky streaks

The best streak of winning sessions I've had in my poker career is 29 straight. I don't remember exactly when I became aware I was on such a major streak, but I was unaware longer than you might think. One of the wonderful things about poker is that when you're in the zone, it feels completely natural and normal to win. You don't think you're doing anything special; you're just playing normally. All you want to do is keep on playing normally. As policemen like to say at a crime scene, "Nothing to see here; move along!". It's only when you finally lose that you can begin to take stock of your accomplishment. When even long winning streaks can sneak up on you, it's no wonder that great play streaks are even sneakier. What I mean by great play streaks are stretches where you don't win every session, but damn near do. Looking at my recent session deltas, I realize I'm on a great play streak. I've won 14 of the last 17 sessions; this is the best 17 session stretch I've had since I quit playing sit and gos. I've won over $300,000 in this stretch.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 92 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 15 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 5 out of 14 times while in small blind (35%)
 - 20 out of 63 times in other positions (31%)
 - a total of 35 out of 92 (38%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 9 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $25,787
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,304,884
balance: $6,754,292

Eleventh hour

Last night I won 1 out of every 11 hands. That's below average for a table with 7 players, but it was fine with me. Extending my theory of statistical symbiosis, it's crystal clear that the lower your seeing-the-flop percentage is, the lower your win per hand ratio is likely to be. If you don't see the flop, by definition you've folded. If you've folded, by definition you've lost the hand. The key thing to remember is that it doesn't matter how many hands you win; the only thing that matters is whether you win enough when you do win to more than offset your intervening losses. If you have enough patience, the phone will eventually ring, and you'll pick it up and know it's for you :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 33 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 9 out of 25 times in other positions (36%)
 - a total of 15 out of 33 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $22,122
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,279,097
balance: $6,728,505

Statistical symbiosis

Poker decisions don't live in isolation. No more do poker statistics. They're inextricably inter-connected. The more I look at seeing-the-flop percentages and showdown percentages, the more I understand their symbiotic relationship. You really, really, really don't want a big seeing-the-flop percentage. The more mediocre it is, the more awesome your showdown percentage is likely to be. As I've said before, 50 is the magic number. If you can keep your seeing-the-flop percentage below 50, you vastly increase your chances of success. I have a hunch I've never doubled my starting stack with a seeing-the-flop percentage over 50; I'll check this out sometime.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 24 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 8 out of 16 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 11 out of 24 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 7 (85%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $45,799
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,256,975
balance: $6,706,383

Flop happy

Last night, I was unusually flop happy early on; I saw the flop the first ten hands running. At the end of those ten hands, I was down $7,683. After that, I settled in for a long night underwater. When I doubled up on hand 99 after making a full house on the turn, I knew it was time to go.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 100 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 15 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 7 out of 16 times while in small blind (43%)
 - 37 out of 69 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 55 out of 100 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 13 (53%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-17,344
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,211,176
balance: $6,660,584

35 spot

Last night, I had an unusual session. Despite a streak of 35 hands in a row where I didn't win a pot, I managed to make a profit on the night. That was due to the opening 10 hands, when my stack shot up by nearly 24 grand. Should I have quit after only 10 hands? Probably. Do I feel bad about not quitting? Nope. I had fun, and also gave myself a chance to have a really monster night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 2 out of 6 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 19 out of 36 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 26 out of 49 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 5 (20%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $8,047
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,228,520
balance: $6,677,928

A tight crowd

Last night, everyone at the table I joined was playing really tight. I like that marginally better than a crowd of loose cannons, but what I like the best is a table where most of the opponents take the middle ground, risk-wise. That's the kind of table where I stand to make the most money in the long run. At a table like last night's, I can't realistically hope to double up; I can't even realistically hope to make a 50% profit. The best I can hope for is a profit of about 25%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 48 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 12 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 9 out of 11 times while in small blind (81%)
 - 12 out of 25 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 30 out of 48 (62%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 7 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $8,060
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,220,473
balance: $6,669,881