Return of the reclusive massive

As you may know, my favorite poker style is MTT, my favorite poker flavor is NLHE, and my favorite size of MTT NLHE is massive :-) My original definition of massive was a tournament where the buy in plus the entry fee was $1,000. In 2015 and 2016, PokerStars ran these tournaments regularly, and they regularly attracted massive fields - often exceeding 1,000 entrants. In September of 2016, these tournaments disappeared from the landscape for some reason. Last night, I played in a tournament with a huge number of entrants, but it had a much larger buy in plus entry fee - $20,000. I've decided to update my definition of massive to be a tournament where the number of entrants is greater than or equal to 1,000. By this new definition, last night I played in my first massive since September 28th of last year. I just ran the numbers, and it turns out I make the money in massives at a really decent clip - 44% of the time. Too bad they don't appear more regularly!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   122    1374  336    37    91300
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    64     429  114    77    36700

delta: $88,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,211,948
2017 balance: $133,925
balance: $11,551,755

Extrapolated profit

Over the years, I've done a lot of number crunching on my poker data. Strangely enough, however, I've never thought to extrapolate what my profit (or loss) at the end of the year will be, based on my current profit (or loss) and how many days have elapsed so far. Until now, that is :-) It's a simple formula:

extrapolated_year_end_profit = current_profit * (number_of_days_in_the_year / number_of_days_elapsed_so_far)

Plugging in the current values, I get

$45,925 * (365 / 72) = $232,814

Note that although today is the 73rd day of the year, I haven't played poker yet (but will) :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    80     545  132    84    43800
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    40     458  114   135        0

delta: $3,800
MTT NLHE balance: $2,123,948
2017 balance: $45,925
balance: $11,463,755

Back in the black

With last night's winning session, my 2017 balance returned to the black. For only the second time in my career, I entered an MTT with a $100,000 BI+EF. I did this since there were no $20,000 or $50,000 tournaments on offer at the time. I just might try another $100,000 tournament tonight :-) I'm going to skip playing chess again, too.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    32      59   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    88      83   21    11   231000

delta: $81,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,120,148
2017 balance: $42,125
balance: $11,459,955

Yet another reason to prefer poker to chess

I don't drink any alcohol during the work week; I only drink on Saturdays. Quite often I don't play either chess or poker on Saturday nights; last night, I did both. I got crushed in chess, but made the money in the poker tournament I played. This data provides yet another reason to prefer poker to chess - alcohol, in the amounts I drink it, has no effect on my poker game, but disastrous effects on my chess game. Chess is unforgiving! Maybe I'll skip it tonight and go straight to poker :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    91     126   30    14   136000

delta: $86,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,039,148
2017 balance: $-38,875
balance: $11,378,955

A simple plan

I'm stealing the title of a 1998 movie for this blog post. As "A Simple Plan" made abundantly clear, nothing is as simple as it seems. It's hard to believe it's been almost 20 years since that movie came out. Here's my "simple plan" for making a profit at MTT NLHE:

Play at least 50 hands per tournament.

I've now played 486 MTT NLHE tournaments. Of those 486, 180 lasted 50 hands or more. Of those 180, I've made the money 162 times (90% of the time). Nothing succeeds like excess :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    51     403   96    48    52800

delta: $32,800
MTT NLHE balance: $1,953,148
2017 balance: $-124,875
balance: $11,292,955

High and dry

I decided to take a look at my 2017 6 max results in isolation, aggregated by poker session date. Three things about the bar chart stood out:

1. early in the year my profit was over $700,000
2. I've fallen significantly from that height, but still have a profit
3. I haven't been underwater in aggregated 6 max yet

It's always a nice feeling to be high and dry, even if you have to ignore some data in order to get there :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    61     387   96    51    44600
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    47     335   84    91        0

delta: $4,600
MTT NLHE balance: $1,920,348
2017 balance: $-157,675
balance: $11,260,155

Aces out

Last night, for the ninth time in my MTT NLHE career, I hit the rail on a hand where I'd been dealt pocket rockets. I call this situation "aces out". On five of those occasions, including last night, I went all in before the flop. I was up against an opponent with pocket nines, which made me an 80% favorite; however, he flopped a set, and they held up. The good news is, I did nothing wrong, and played well throughout the session. Additional good news: I was able to restrain myself from playing any 9 max :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    35     408   96   199        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    71     355   84    68    37200

delta: $-2,800
MTT NLHE balance: $1,915,748
2017 balance: $-162,275
balance: $11,255,555