Wrong way on a one-way track

When you really love a song, its most powerful lyrics get stored somewhere where you can always access them; they share that characteristic with poignant lines of well-loved poems. The song lyric, or the line of poetry, will spring to mind when a situation arises which subconsciously you recognize as the same situation as the one in the song or poem.

"Runaway Train", by Soul Asylum, is one of my favorite songs. My favorite lyric from it is what I've chosen to title this post. Last night, I hit the felt on the final hand; I was playing my worst hand, yet again. Just as a reminder, my worst hand is ace jack offsuit, or AJo for short. The history of my AJo hands is a true tale of woe. I'm definitely going the wrong way down a one-way track, and I realize that I'll never get back. I now feel the only logical thing to do is fold every AJo hand I'm dealt from here on in. We'll see if I have the strength to do it!

For the record, I lost $9,000 with AJo on last night's final hand. In my poker career, I've lost a whopping $375,808 with AJo. My next worst hand, ATo, is a mere bagatelle in comparison; I've only lost $158,751 with it.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 159 hands and saw flop:
 - 25 out of 40 times while in big blind (62%)
 - 35 out of 43 times while in small blind (81%)
 - 47 out of 76 times in other positions (61%)
 - a total of 107 out of 159 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 19 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 37

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,097,521
balance: $7,454,474

A session in the balance

The difference between success and failure in poker can sometimes hinge on a single outcome. Last night, I played for over two hours, and 140 hands; however, it was the result of just one hand, which took less than a minute to play, which sealed my fate. Even though I came out a loser on the night, I know I played well enough to win. Here's what happened:

On hand 26, I was dealt Ks Jh. The flop came Kc Ad Kd, and it was checked all around. The turn was 5s; I bet $500, then got into a raising war with another player I had covered, and ended up going all in. He'd been dealt 3h Kh, and hit a full house on the river. I was a 70.45% favorite after the turn, with an additional 22.73% chance of chopping the pot; that means I lost to a 6.82% dog.

Had the odds held up, I would have won a pot worth $67,230; instead, I lost $33,740. C'est la guerre!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 140 hands and saw flop:
 - 17 out of 20 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 13 out of 20 times while in small blind (65%)
 - 59 out of 100 times in other positions (59%)
 - a total of 89 out of 140 (63%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 16 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 21

delta: $-57,386
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,147,521
balance: $7,504,474

Back-to-back improbabilities

I've certainly seen my share of improbable events at a poker table. In the vast majority of cases, they're separated by a large number of intervening, ho-hum, all-too-probable events. Once in a very great while, however, the improbable events happen back-to-back. It's akin to lightning striking twice. What can you do but shake your head, and simply marvel at what the poker gods can concoct?

Last night, on hand 30, I was dealt 8c 8h, and flopped a full house. The flop was Jh Jd 8s. I started the hand with $15,000, and ended it with nothing. I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt Js Jc, and had flopped quads. I ran the numbers, and it turns out my hand in combination with that flop beats 96.26 of all possible opponent holdings, and chops the pot with another 0.37 percent. I was extremely unlucky to run into one of the 3.37 percent of hands which could beat mine.

After reupping for the max, I immediately recouped all my losses, with interest. I was dealt As 8s, flopped top two pair, and made a full house on the turn. I ended up going all in on the turn, and two opponents went to showdown with me. I raked in a monster pot worth $155,750, and was done for the night.

By my current definition of poker rebound, that was the fourth best rebound of my career, and likely the first ever to occur on the first hand of a reup.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 32 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 11 out of 24 times in other positions (45%)
 - a total of 15 out of 32 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

 delta: $55,750
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,204,907
balance: $7,561,860

A quarter turn to the left

In general, when you run the numbers on heads up situations, the answers you get back have more than two significant digits. That's why I was surprised when I ran the numbers on last night's final hand. After the turn, I was a 25 percent dog up against a 75 percent favorite. That is, a 25.00 percent dog up against a 75.00 percent favorite. Not very surprisingly, considering I went all in on the turn, I hit the felt. Combining the street, my chance of winning, and the final outcome, it all came out to a quarter turn to the left :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 73 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
 - 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
 - 31 out of 48 times in other positions (64%)
 - a total of 45 out of 73 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,149,157
balance: $7,506,110

Personal best

Last night, at the end of the session, I set an interesting personal best. I achieved my biggest hand delta ever for a hand which didn't end up going to showdown. When there's a lot of money in the pot, most often one or more of your opponents will be priced in to call any river bet you make. The poker term for this is "pot committed". I'd been dealt 3d 6h, and the flop came 9d 3s 6c. I checked, then raised a $5,000 bet to $12,000 and got three callers. The turn was 4d; I bet $10,000 and got one caller. The river was Js; I bet $10,000 again and my opponent folded. I won a pot worth $79,000 without a showdown; $56,000 of this was other people's money.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 9 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 26 out of 49 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 41 out of 67 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 9 (77%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $71,328
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,199,157
balance: $7,556,110

The camouflaged quit signal

Poker is a game of pattern recognition, but the patterns are not always, or even often, obvious. Sometimes they only appear after the fact, when you stare at the data long enough. I've never written about the camouflaged quit signal before, but I've thought about it, off and on, for quite a while. What do I mean by the camouflaged quit signal? For those of you who have ever done any day trading, which I tried my hand at recently, it's the poker equivalent of a particular trend line scenario. Last night's bar chart illustrates it quite well. There's a clear down trend in the first half of the session. That's followed by a period of prosperity above the trend line which lasts about a third of the session. After that, in the final sixth of the session, the trend line is rejoined. The correct play to make, I now believe, is to quit as soon as the trend line is rejoined, since rejoining it bodes continued descent and eventual bankruptcy. The trouble with this advice is that unless you keep a live bar chart up during your session, you're not going to realize when the trend line has been rejoined.

Of course, this theory is somewhat flawed; I came up with it based on a specific scenario whose outcome was already known, so it won't necessarily apply in the general case. I'm sure there are many times when I didn't hit the felt after rejoining a downward trend line. Unfortunately for me, last night wasn't one of them :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 10 times while in big blind (90%)
 - 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 28 out of 56 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 43 out of 76 (56%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 11 (27%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,127,829
balance: $7,484,782

Six thumps

As you may know, I often look at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of a session as inspiration for a blog post title. Looking at last night's chart, what springs immediately to mind is "six thumps". Six separate times, my stack took a significant jump upwards. In fact, those six jumps were the top six entries in the sorted list of the absolute values of the hand deltas.

Regular thumps are like regular heartbeats; you're not going to survive without them.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 13 times while in big blind (84%)
 - 9 out of 14 times while in small blind (64%)
 - 38 out of 70 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 58 out of 97 (59%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 12 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $17,690
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,177,829
balance: $7,534,782