Rockets on the bubble

When you're on the bubble in a tournament, there are essentially two strategies you can adopt:

1. play super tight, just hoping to make a min cash
2. play boldly, trying to increase your stack so you can potentially win the tournament

There's really no middle ground. Of course, the size of your stack when you reach the bubble will often influence which strategy you adopt. Last night, I took the bold approach. On my final hand of the tournament, I had the short stack at my table and also at the tournament, with less than one big blind in chips. I was dealt pocket rockets, and called all in. Unfortunately, an opponent hit a two outer on the river to send me to the rail. Still, I'd play that hand the same way every time.

In other news, I hit a milestone - it was the 900th MTT-R NLHE of my career.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    71      50   12    13        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $45,601,000
2019 balance: $11,597,250
balance: $58,181,510

The usual suspects

It's time, once again, to crib from myself. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say on July 24, 2017:

As I've mentioned before, I see a lot of familiar names when I play MTT-Rs. There's a core of regular players, and I'm one of them. We could be called the usual suspects :-) I enjoy competing against my fellow usual suspects, and always try to last longer than them, whether or not I make the money.

In last night's second tournament, I outlasted more than half of the usual suspects. That made missing the money more palatable :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    30      66   15    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      68   15    18        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $45,701,000
2019 balance: $11,697,250
balance: $58,281,510

Another top 10 in a losing cause

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, what jumped out was how long I lasted until I went underwater (never to resurface, alas). The first hand at the completion of which I was underwater was hand 69. Unfortunately, I didn't make the money. I ran the numbers to see where that result ranked in the sorted list of first underwater hands of MTT-R NLHEs where I failed to make the money, and it clocked in at number 6. Here are the top ten:

81 2017/0815/a
78 2017/0704/a
74 2018/0828/b
73 2017/1212/a
71 2017/0701/a
69 2019/0528/a
58 2017/0807/b
57 2018/0806/c
55 2018/0907/b
54 2018/0329/a

Of course, this is a personal borscht kind of outcome. Nothing to get too excited about, but something with at least a modicum of interest :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      55   12    19        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $45,901,000
2019 balance: $11,897,250
balance: $58,481,510

A stampede of cowboys

Pocket kings, aka cowboys, are a mighty fine hand. Last night, in the only tournament I entered, I was dealt cowboys three times. That qualifies as a stampede, since I was receiving them at better than 9 times their expected frequency. Strangely enough, it was the same two cowboys each time - the king of hearts and the king of diamonds. Unfortunately, I was only able to win one of those three hands. I ran into a major bad beat on the first one, when an opponent hit a two outer on the river.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      56   12    23        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,001,000
2019 balance: $11,997,250
balance: $58,581,510

Double uberflush

My rarity detector was klaxoning after the final hand of last night's session. I thought I'd achieved a "got there" when I hit a flush on the river, but it was actually a "not there". Not one but two opponents turned over a better flush than mine; we were the only players at showdown. I'm pretty sure this was the very first double uberflush I've experienced, in all my years of poker. Being the rarity junkie that I am, I'm pretty pumped about it, even though I hit the rail :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      65   15    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      69   15    21        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,351,000
2019 balance: $12,347,250
balance: $58,931,510

An unexpected $17,000 bonus

Last night, I made the money in the only tournament I entered. On hand 87, when I was already in the money, I had the shortest stack remaining in the tournament. I was in 16th place, on the bubble of the first money jump. When I lost the hand, I fully expected to have finished in 16th. Mirabile dictu, when I looked at the lobby, I found that somehow I'd finished in 15th, and had received an extra $17,000 for my failing efforts :-) The only explanation I could come up with was that the player who came in 16th, who'd been at a different table, must have hit the rail mere seconds before I did.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    87      77   18    15   379000

delta: $279,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,551,000
2019 balance: $12,547,250
balance: $59,131,510

Statistical solace

One of the things I've learned from playing poker is that there's a lot of solace in statistics :-) If you lose a hand,, but were a statistical favorite to win it, you feel better than you would if you'd been a statistical dog. The secret is to play the long game. You're going to lose a bunch of battles, but if you're making the right decisions along the way, you're going to win the war.

I've now missed the money in the last four tournaments I've played. However, my average percentile for those four is really decent; it's nearly on a par with my overall average percentile. That's proof positive that I'm playing well. As long as you can prove to yourself that you're playing well, there's nothing to worry about. The results will eventually come - in spades :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      69   15    22        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,272,000
2019 balance: $12,268,250
balance: $58,852,510

Evermore in vain

Last night, I had yet another evermore in vain session. That's when I play several tournaments, last longer in each succeeding one, but never make the money. The most memorable hand of the session was one that I lost. It took me to the rail in the first tournament I entered. I'd been dealt Js Kd, and the flop came Kh Ks 8h. I was up against two opponents, and was a 70.87% favorite. After the deuce of clubs came on the turn, I was an 83.33% favorite. One of my opponents spiked a flush on the river, though, and that was all she wrote.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      94   27    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      57   12    31        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      56   12    18        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,472,000
2019 balance: $12,468,250
balance: $59,052,510

Eying 80 million

Prior to this calendar year, my career balance was $46,584,260. Last night, I returned to the blue. With that boost, my extrapolated profit for the year currently stands at $33,311,427. That means that if all goes according to Hoyle (which it seldom does), my career balance at the end of the year will be $79,895,687. Let's just round that up to $80,000,000 :-) I never could have come this far this fast without rebuy tournaments. God bless 'em!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    17      75   15    51        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    87      65   15     5  1040000

delta: $840,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,872,000
2019 balance: $12,868,250
balance: $59,452,510

30 hand tailfall

The most memorable thing about last night's tournament was its lengthy tailfall - 30 hands. That put it in the 96th percentile. I managed just one positive hand delta in 47 hands. On the plus side, I only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      68   15    41        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,032,000
2019 balance: $12,028,250
balance: $58,612,510

A tale of two big slicks

Last night, I played two tournaments. Each featured an early big slick. On the first, I hit the felt. On the second, I more than doubled up, but it was the only pot I won that tournament. My percentile for that second tournament was the sixth worst of my MTT-R NLHE career - an anemic 16.07%. It's safe to say I'm no longer in the sweetness :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      84   18    27        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      56   12    47        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,132,000
2019 balance: $12,128,250
balance: $58,712,510

In the sweetness

I first came up with the phrase "in the sweetness" when I was playing sit and gos, but one can be in the sweetness when playing any poker style. At the moment, I'm in the sweetness playing MTT-R NLHEs. In four of the last seven tournaments I've entered, including last night's, I've made it under the lights. My overall balance topped 59 million for the first time ever. All is right in my poker world :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   160      67   15     3  2273000

delta: $2,173,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $46,432,000
2019 balance: $12,428,250
balance: $59,012,510

$393,000 fall-in survival

My ability to ladder up when I reach the final table continues. Sometimes it takes skill, and other times a heavy dose of luck. On Friday night, it was the latter. On hand 92 of the second tournament I entered, I reached the final table in seventh place out of eight. 20 hands later, I was still in seventh place, but now there were only seven players left, and I was severely short-stacked. I only had 5,000 chips, and the next shortest stack had 41,550. The ante was 1,200 and the blinds were 6,000 and 12,000. I was in the small blind, so I fell in. Miraculously, I survived, and finished in fifth place four hands later. That was two money jumps ahead of where I should have finished, and bumped up my profit by $393,000. I'll take it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      69   15    57        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   116      62   15     5  1136000

delta: $936,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $44,259,000
2019 balance: $10,255,250
balance: $56,839,510

My blue heaven

Last night, my overall balance returned to the blue, in a resounding way. Even though I started the final table in seventh place, and ended up in seventh, I still feel like I laddered up. Here's why: when hand 110 started, eight players remained. I was the short stack, with just 660 chips. The next smallest stack was 9,999 chips. The ante was 300, and the blinds were 1500 and 3000. So it was abundantly clear I was not long for this world. I had T2o (ten deuce offsuit), and folded. It was my 13th fold in a row. Miraculously, I'd hung on just long enough to be the beneficiary of a money jump. The player with the fourth biggest stack (96,533 chips) took on the player with the third biggest stack (96,698 chips), went all in, and lost. That bumped my profit up by $114,000 :-) I hit the rail the next hand.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   111      63   15     7   648000

delta: $548,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $43,323,000
2019 balance: $9,319,250
balance: $55,903,510

The skin of my teeth

Last night, I made the money by the skin of my teeth. I survived two hands I had no right to survive. Sometimes, you need a little help like that :-) Here's what went down:

hand 57: I fell in, since I started the hand in the big blind, and didn't have enough chips to cover it. I was dealt 9d 6d, and the flop came 4d 7h Kd, giving me a flush draw. I received immediate service, as the turn card was the ten of diamonds. My flush held up to win the main pot.

hand 64: I was severely short stacked, and was dealt 9s Ah. I called the big blind all in preflop. I was an 18.18% dog on the turn, but spiked a seven on the river to hit a straight and win the main pot.

In other news, my blue distance is down to $38,000. Time to get back into the blue :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      75   15    15   365000

delta: $265,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,775,000
2019 balance: $8,771,250
balance: $55,355,510

On pace for 323 sessions

If I keep playing poker at my current pace, I'll end up having played 323 sessions by the end of the year. How does that stack up to previous years? It beats them all :-) Here are the numbers:

128  2009
208  2010
253  2011
298  2012
311  2013
280  2014
275  2015
303  2016
304  2017
319  2018
118  2019 (so far)

I'm not playing poker this often to try to set a record, though; I'm playing purely for fun and relaxation. Playing poker feels as natural to me as breathing.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      50   12    28        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,510,000
2019 balance: $8,506,250
balance: $55,090,510

45th million plus session

Last night, for the 45th time in my career, I made a profit of at least a million play dollars in a single session. That's a feeling that never gets old :-) I almost made it all the way back into the blue; I'm just $103,000 shy. When the poker gods are smiling on you, you can't help but feel invincible. I'm going for #46 tonight!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   147      53   12     3  1924000

delta: $1,824,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,710,000
2019 balance: $8,706,250
balance: $55,290,510

140th MTT-R NLHE century

Last night, I achieved the 140th century of my MTT-R NLHE career in the second tournament I entered. Centuries almost guarantee that you'll make the money. I've only missed the money in 2 of the 140 centuries. Some other numbers from last night's second tournament:

 4 high chaparral count
 6 all-ins
21 hand tailfall (a freefall from the peak)

I missed making the final table by two spots.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      73   15    53        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   109      64   15    11   345000

delta: $45,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,886,000
2019 balance: $6,882,250
balance: $53,466,510

Nothing burger session

Some sessions defy all my attempts to find something interesting to say about them. They even defy my tried and true method of looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session to come up with ideas. These sessions are true nothing burgers :-) I had another one last night. Thankfully, they're few and far between.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    32      51   12    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,841,000
2019 balance: $6,837,250
balance: $53,421,510

The cruelest game

I first used this blog post title last October 2. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

Decades ago, I was interested in backgammon, and bought a book called "Backgammon: The Cruelest Game". Its awesome title has stayed with me all these years. I'm here to tell you that there are moments when poker usurps the mantle of cruelest game. I experienced such a moment last night.

Poker was cruel to me again last night. On the final hand, I flopped a flush and was officially drawing dead. I had the king high and one of my opponents had the ace high. This marked just the fifth time I've ever hit the rail in an MTT-R NLHE where I was drawing dead after the flop. Whatcha gonna do?

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      71   15    26        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,041,000
2019 balance: $7,037,250
balance: $53,621,510

A downward trend

I've been noticing that I'm making the money in rebuy tournaments less frequently than before. Here are the numbers:

itm_pct  itm  tournaments  year

  35.48   99          279  2017
  28.60  127          444  2018
  21.09   31          147  2019

It's a steady downward trend. However, since I'm still making a healthy profit on rebuy tournaments, I'm not going to worry about it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      62   15    18        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,241,000
2019 balance: $7,237,250
balance: $53,821,510

Went big and went home

Many people, in many walks of life, espouse the maxim "Go big or go home". In the poker world, however, what that often results in is "Went big and went home" :-) "big goodbye" and "went big and went home" are nearly the same thing; the only difference is, some scenarios which qualify as "went big and went home" don't qualify as "big goodbye" since the absolute value of the hand delta isn't quite big enough to be the largest of the absolute values of the hand deltas. For the record, no fall in could ever qualify for "went big and went home", but it's sort of an open question how big the delta should be to qualify.

Last night, I had two more big goodbyes, running my streak of big goodbyes to four. I'm hoping to end that streak tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    15      64   15    61        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      52   12    24        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,441,000
2019 balance: $7,437,250
balance: $54,021,510

tptkc

Last night's final hand had a lot in common with the final hand from the night before. Once again, I flopped top pair, top kicker. Once again, my hole cards were of the same suit. This time, however, no flush draw was in the offing. Once again, I hit the rail. Once again, it was a big goodbye (I forgot to mention that in last night's post). So this all added up to tptkc - top pair, top kicker cracked. One of these days, top pair, top kicker is going to hold up for me :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    32      68   15    41        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,641,000
2019 balance: $7,637,250
balance: $54,221,510

tptkfdc

Tonight's blog post title is shorthand for what befell me on the final hand of last night's session. I was dealt Th Ah, and the flop came 4h 2h Tc. That gave me top pair, top kicker, and a flush draw. My home-grown percent at flop utility tells me that holding with that flop wins 88.81% of all possible heads up outcomes. Unfortunately for me, I ran into one of them. My opponent had been dealt 2s 2c, and his three of a kind held up. So my top pair, top kicker, flush draw was cracked. Hence tptkfdc :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      67   15    26        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,941,000
2019 balance: $7,937,250
balance: $54,521,510

A $520,000 fold

The money jumps near the top of the payout tables for MTT-R NLHEs are truly staggering. They're so big, they can (and should) change your strategy. Last night, when I made it to four-handed play, I was the short stack, but the player with the second shortest stack was sitting out. If I could manage to outlast just this one player, I'd be the beneficiary of a $520,00 money jump. So that's what I focused on. I had to win a pot or two, in order to have a bigger stack than the player sitting out (let's call him player B). If I could achieve that, I only needed to fold for the rest of the tournament in order to achieve my goal (barring player B surviving the inevitable fall-in). I'm happy to report that's just what happened. On the hand where player B hit the rail, I was dealt ducks (pocket deuces). I folded them before the flop. Friends and neighbors, chalk that up as a $520,000 fold :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   148      51   12     3  1619000

delta: $1,419,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,141,000
2019 balance: $8,137,250
balance: $54,721,510

Ace rag out

The most honorable way to exit a tournament in with pocket aces. A close second is with a big slick. The least honorable way to exit a tournament is with a hammer (seven deuce offsuit). A close second is with ace rag. Last night, I exited the only tournament I entered in a very dishonorable way - with A2o (ace deuce offsuit). That definitely qualifies as ace rag. I was actually a little ashamed of myself, to tell the truth.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    36      58   12    41        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,722,000
2019 balance: $6,718,250
balance: $53,302,510

A tale of two flushes

Flopping a flush is one of the nicest things that can happen to you at a poker table. Dealing with an opponent who hits a flush on the river can be one of the most unpleasant. Both of these things happened in the second tournament I entered last night. Hand 62 was when fortune smiled on me, shooting my stack up to its peak. Hand 73 was when fortune smiled on an opponent, and took me to the rail. Easy come, easy go :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    16      49   12    23        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      65   15    23        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,822,000
2019 balance: $6,818,250
balance: $53,402,510

My poker graveyard

Having played online poker for over ten years, I've gathered quite a collection of style/flavor combos I've sworn never to play again. I call it my poker graveyard :-) Here it is, sorted in descending order of final date played:

date        style      flavor

2017-11-09  Sit & Go   No Limit Hold'em
2017-10-18  Cash game  No Limit Hold'em
2017-08-02  Sit & Go   8-Game
2017-03-03  Power up   No Limit Hold'em
2016-09-25  Spin & Go  No Limit Hold'em
2015-04-06  Sit & Go   HORSE
2014-08-28  Cash game  Limit 7 Card Stud
2014-07-07  Cash game  Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball
2013-07-07  Cash game  Pot Limit Omaha
2012-07-15  Sit & Go   Limit Hold'em
2012-07-15  Sit & Go   Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball
2012-07-14  Cash game  No Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball
2012-07-14  Cash game  Pot Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball
2011-08-26  Cash game  Limit 5 Card Draw
2011-08-12  Cash game  Pot Limit Hold'em

Here's the list of combos I'll continue to play:

date        style      flavor

2019-05-01  MTT-R      No Limit Hold'em
2019-02-20  MTT        No Limit Hold'em
2019-02-16  KO poker   No Limit Hold'em
2019-02-15  MTT        8-Game
2019-02-01  MTT-B      No Limit Hold'em
2018-12-17  MTT        Limit Badugi
2016-09-24  MTT        Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball
2016-08-22  MTT        HORSE

I'm strictly a tournament player now.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      71   15    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      67   15    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,022,000
2019 balance: $7,018,250
balance: $53,602,510

Little big goodbye

Last night's tournament ended with a little big goodbye. What do I mean by that? I'm glad you asked :-) A true big goodbye is when the absolute value of the final hand's hand delta is the maximum absolute value of all the hand deltas. A little big goodbye is when the conditions for a true big goodbye aren't met by the full set of hand deltas, but are met when the positive hand deltas are excluded from consideration. So far in my MTT-R NLHE career, I've had 206 big goodbyes and 130 little big goodbyes.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      54   12    15        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,222,000
2019 balance: $7,218,250
balance: $53,802,510