A shortage of bullets

Last night, for just the sixth time ever, I had a funny funny money MTT-R NLHE. In other words, I "made the money", but still had a net loss. The root cause was a shortage of bullets. There were fewer players than normal, and therefore fewer rebuys and fewer add ons. All this added up to a much smaller prize pool, with the inevitable result that all the prizes were smaller. One reason there were fewer players was that I started playing poker later than I usually do; I'll try to correct that tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    89      47   12     9   214000

delta: $-36,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,996,500
2018 balance: $3,615,000
balance: $49,128,260

Two selfie-worthy tournaments

I consider a tournament to be selfie-worthy any time I hit the top 10. Of course, I don't always stay there, but that doesn't stop me from snapping selfies while I'm there :-) Last night, two of the three tournaments I played were selfie-worthy. In the first one, I was 9th of 73 players after 14 hands. In the second, I was 2nd of 33 after 2 hands. I actually ended up taking a selfie in the third tournament also, but it wasn't officially selfie-worthy - I was only 14th of 37. Unfortunately, I didn't make the money in any of them.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      78   18    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      76   18    23        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    51      49   12    17        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,032,500
2018 balance: $3,651,000
balance: $49,164,260

Respiration rate

Every now and then I like to come up with a new poker statistic. My latest one is respiration rate. This refers to the average amount of play money I "breathe" in or out per session, observed over some longer interval. For the purposes of this new statistic, it doesn't matter whether the money came in or out; all that matters are the amounts respired. Here's my respiration rate per session, observed on a yearly basis:

  $9,232  2009
 $25,051  2010
 $30,913  2011
 $65,327  2012
 $32,944  2013
 $56,703  2014
 $44,214  2015
 $47,356  2016
$177,149  2017
$256,171  2018

Of course, no respiration rate would be sustainable without some sort of balance between the inhalations and the exhalations.

In other news, my porpoising continued; I registered the fourth largest reverse rebound of my career last night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      76   18    43        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      74   15    43        0

delta: $-600,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,332,500
2018 balance: $3,951,000
balance: $49,464,260

Ladder up luck

I love it when I run into luck when I've already made the money :-) That's the best time to get lucky. In a tournament, skill can only take you so far. Leave it to luck to ladder you up! That's what happened to me last night. I got under the lights, but was the short stack when the final table started. I had only 1.2% of the chips in play. Luck laddered me up two spots; sweet!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    88      73   15     7   639000

delta: $539,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,932,500
2018 balance: $4,551,000
balance: $50,064,260

Showdown futility

Some nights in poker, you can't win for losing. That's what happened to me in the first tournament I played last night. I went to showdown 5 times, and lost all 5 hands. My holdings weren't chopped liver, either. The one that hurt the most was the one where I hit the rail; I was a 95.45% favorite after the turn, but my opponent hit a two outer on the river.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    19      88   18    56        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      58   12    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    31      48   12    35        0

delta: $-750,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,393,500
2018 balance: $4,012,000
balance: $49,525,260

Magic flushed on the final table bubble

I've griped before about magic flushes. Last night, I was magic flushed on the final table bubble. It was a brutal way to go, but not as brutal as it would have been had I gotten magic flushed on the money bubble. Technically speaking, it wasn't a pure magic flush since I was an underdog pre-flop. My chances of winning the hand pre-flop, post-flop, and post-turn were 34.57%, 70.20%, and 79.55%, respectively. I wish magic flushes could be banned :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    85      83   18    10   384000

delta: $184,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,143,500
2018 balance: $4,762,000
balance: $50,275,260

Buried success

Success and failure can only be measured through an aperture. Increasing or decreasing the width of the aperture may well change our evaluation of what we perceive. Last night, using an aperture width of a single session, I failed. Using an aperture width of a single tournament, I failed in the first one I played and succeeded in the second. Since the session was a losing one, the success I had in the second tournament was buried. Buried success is still success, however. This made me curious to find out where last night's second tournament stands in my career list of buried successes. The answer was heartening - it clocked in as my fourth best.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    67      70   15    25        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    72      85   18    11   404000

delta: $-296,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,959,500
2018 balance: $4,578,000
balance: $50,091,260

Another big goodbye

Last night, I had another big goodbye. That's when the magnitude of your loss on the final hand of a tournament exceeds the magnitude of the delta of every other hand played, whether it was a profit or a loss. The only positive from the session that I can come up with on short notice is that I didn't fall in :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      49   12    38        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,255,500
2018 balance: $4,874,000
balance: $50,387,260

Dancing on the edge of a precipice

When you're severely short-stacked in a tournament, it feels like you're dancing on the edge of a precipice. One false move, and you're done for. You'll need a combination of luck and skill to survive. There's no better feeling than surviving in this situation; I find it much more satisfying than making the money by virtue of having a massive stack. Last night, I danced on the edge for most of the one tournament I entered. I missed the money by two spots. Even though it was a losing session, I was definitely in the zone.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      73   15    17        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,455,500
2018 balance: $5,074,000
balance: $50,587,260

Yet another fingerfehler

I'm going to stop multi-tabling for the time being. The risk of multi-tabling fingerfehlers is just too high.  On Friday night I had another one, raising in one tournament when I was trying to check in another. I get a sinking feeling whenever this happens, and it's entirely avoidable if I just stay content with playing one tournament at a time.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    55      79   18     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      83   18    45        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,555,500
2018 balance: $5,174,000
balance: $50,687,260

First and only tournament

Last night, I had a "first and only" MTT 8-game tournament - I won the first hand I played, but didn't win another. First and only tournaments are pretty rare; of the 263 MTT 8-games I've played, only 3 have been first and onlys. Of the 566 MTT-R NLHEs I've played, only 4 have been first and onlys.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    11      64   12     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    84      72   15    12   434000

delta: $234,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,755,500
2018 balance: $5,424,000
balance: $50,937,260

Escorted to the rail by a #1

The perfect deuce hand is 7 5 4 3 2. It's called a #1. Nothing can beat it. It's great when you have it, and really sucks when an opponent does. Last night, for the first time ever, I was escorted to the rail by a #1, ending my MTT 8-game tournament. I believe I had an 8 6, which isn't that bad a deuce hand. Let me check the archives ... My memory was faulty; I actually had an 9 7, which is a decidedly crappy deuce hand. It doesn't matter anyway; there's no way to beat a #1.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    83      72   18    20        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      77   18    20        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,471,500
2018 balance: $5,190,000
balance: $50,703,260

Finally, a fat one

Last night, I finally had a fat session. I made a profit of more than 2 million play dollars. That never gets old! I'm hoping the fatness continues tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    61      70   18    13    40000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   125      75   15     3  2403000

delta: $2,243,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,621,500
2018 balance: $5,390,000
balance: $50,903,260

Fastest five million dollar loss

When you're in a slump, it's no easy task to find a positive poker statistic. On the other hand, it's dead simple to find superlatively negative ones. With last night's loss, I set a new record for fastest five million dollar loss - 53 sessions. That's a far cry from my personal best for fastest five million dollar gain (2 sessions), but hey, it's still a personal best :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    83      61   12    17        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      84   18    26        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,368,500
2018 balance: $3,147,000
balance: $48,660,260

Flooler

The most memorable hand of last night's session was a flooler. That's my neo neo portmanteau of flop+cooler. I hit a straight on the flop, but an opponent hit a flush on the same flop. I saw the flush possibility, but just couldn't credit that someone had hit it at the same time as I hit my straight. I didn't go broke on the hand, but was left pretty short-stacked. I increased my blue distance personal worst to $5,574,000. 6 million, here we come :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    55      82   18    10    79000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    22     101   27    51        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      69   15    25        0

delta: $-271,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,618,500
2018 balance: $3,447,000
balance: $48,960,260

Blue distance personal worst

Last night, I set a new blue distance personal worst, breaking through the 5 million play dollar boundary for the first time. For the record, my blue distance is now $5,303,000. The good news is, I still have over 3.5 million in profit on the year. That's better than every year of my career except for last year.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    16      83   18    55        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      79   18    31        0

delta: $-550,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,918,500
2018 balance: $3,718,000
balance: $49,231,260

Razor thin

In my April 21, 2013 post, the opening sentence was as follows:

The difference between a winning session and a losing one can often be razor thin.

That was certainly the case last night. In the one MTT-R NLHE I played, although I made the money, I bubbled making the second money jump. Had I made it, I would have come out with a small profit on the night. I had to settle for a small loss instead.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    47      77   18    26        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    87     103   27    16   215000
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    90      71   18    25        0

delta: $-35,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,468,500
2018 balance: $4,268,000
balance: $49,781,260

A tale of three big slicks

My overall balance took a big hit last night. So big, in fact, that I set a new personal worst for blue distance - a whopping $4,718,000. It's official; I've started a new slump :-) The most aggravating part of last night's session was the fact that I was dealt three big slicks in the final tournament I entered, and lost all of those hands, hitting the rail on the final one. You have to expect to win at least one of those.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   172      75   18     7   109000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    65      92   27    31        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      58   12    32        0

delta: $-441,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,403,500
2018 balance: $4,303,000
balance: $49,816,260

Evermore and ever better

Last night, I had an evermore and ever better session; I lasted longer each tournament than I had in the previous one, and also had a higher percentile. In the last tournament I played, I had another one of those funky "in the money" finishes where I actually lost money. Of course, that was an MTT 8-game; no such shenanigans can occur in an MTT-R NLHE.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    16      89   18    43        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      92   27    22   194000
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    74      81   18    13    47000

delta: $41,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,903,500
2018 balance: $4,744,000
balance: $50,257,260

Crybaby

I first used this blog post title on February 12, 2016. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

There are certain universal truths:

1. no one wants to see your vacation pictures
2. no one wants to read your blog
3. no one wants to listen to your bad beat sob stories

In general, I've been very good about not running counter to these truths. Although I'd like people to read my blog, I don't beg them to, and I write it for myself anyway. I very rarely tell bad beat sob stories. I think people who do are just crybabies. I'm going to step out of character briefly, and inhabit the role of crybaby.
 
Here are my bad beat sob stories from last night's tournament:

sob story 1: on hand 41 of the first MTT-R NLHE I entered, I was dealt KQo (king queen offsuit), paired them both on the flop, and went all in. I was up against an opponent who'd been dealt AKs (ace king suited). I was an 85.45% favorite after the flop, and a 93.18% favorite after the turn. My opponent spiked an ace on the river, however, and my stack was suddenly on life support.

sob story 2: on hand 43 of the same tournament, I was dealt Q8s (queen eight suited), and went all in after the turn. I was up against the same opponent from hand 41, who'd been dealt 43o (four three offsuit). I was a 68.38% favorite after the flop, and a 68.18% favorite after the turn. My opponent hit a straight on the river, however, and I was history.

sob story 3: on the final hand of the second  MTT-R NLHE I entered, I was dealt AKs (ace king suited), paired my king on the flop, and went all in. I was up against an opponent who'd been dealt KTo (king ten offsuit). I was an 84.34% favorite after the flop, and a 93.18% favorite after the turn. My opponent spiked a ten on the river, however, and I was history.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    31      80   18     0        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      80   18    53        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      72   15    26        0
 
The one silver lining of the session: I saved myself $100,000 by not adding on in either MTT-R NLHE.

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,809,500
2018 balance: $4,703,000
balance: $50,216,260

Double the fun

Last night, I double-tabled again, and made the money in both tournaments. I can now officially state that my slump is over. If my balance goes majorly south again, that'll just mean I've started a new slump :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   156      61   12     4   260000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    92      66   15    15   335000

delta: $295,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,009,500
2018 balance: $4,953,000
balance: $50,466,260

Fatal improvement

It's generally a good thing to improve your hand. On the flop, indubitably. On the turn, certainly. On the river? Not always so much. The problem with improving your hand on the river is that it may have improved your opponent's hand even more. Of course, that's true on any street, but it just seems truer on the river. Last night, in the 8-game tournament I played, I hit the rail on a hand with a fatal river improvement. The river card was the nine of hearts; it improved my hand to a set of nines, but improved my opponent's hand to a queen high straight. Ouch!

In happier news, I finally stopped the bitch and had a profitable session.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    45000  5000       6     8      34    9     0        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    87      84   18    16   431000

delta: $131,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,924,500
2018 balance: $4,658,000
balance: $50,171,260

The 70-70 club

When you're on a massive downswing, as I now am, you look very hard for positives to focus on. Even though last night's session was a losing one, I found a positive attribute - the one tournament I played was a member of the 70-70 club. That's my shorthand for tournaments where I played at least 70 hands and had a percentile of at least 70. I stole this concept from baseball, which has its 40-40 club, which is composed of the players who had a season in which they hit at least 40 home runs and stole at least 40 bases. Baseball's 40-40 club is very exclusive; it currently contains only four members (José Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano). How exclusive is the 70-70 club? As it turns out, not very. Of the 550 MTT-R NLHEs I've played, fully 202 of them are members. However, when you're on a massive downswing, and are looking hard for positives to focus on, you can't afford to be too choosy :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      57   12    17        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,743,500
2018 balance: $4,527,000
balance: $50,040,260

A startling statistic

Last night, I suffered another freefall from the peak. I just ran the numbers, and discovered a startling statistic - namely, over one quarter of the MTT-R NLHEs I play end in freefalls from the peak. Perhaps I shouldn't be so surprised, if I take last night's session as a canonical example of the phenomenon. I was short-stacked all tournament long, and I played fairly tight, as I habitually do. Combining those conditions with the hard fact of escalating antes and blinds, everything points to the likelihood of a swift slide to oblivion at the end of the tournament.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      53   12    19        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,943,500
2018 balance: $4,727,000
balance: $50,240,260

The incredible shrinking profit

Last night, my blue distance crashed through the 4 million play dollar barrier, setting a new personal worst. This was a long time in coming, and felt kind of inevitable. I've now had six losing sessions in a row, for an aggregate loss of $2,050,000; that's good for second place on my all-time list. My extrapolated profit on the year is down to 8.5 million, from 13 million just one month ago. Despite all this, I'm not discouraged. I'm gonna kick some butt one of these fine days :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    55      69   18    23        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      80   18    36        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,193,500
2018 balance: $4,977,000
balance: $50,490,260

Megamonth

By more than one measure, July 2018 was a poker megamonth for me. Here are some reasons why:

1. I played every night, which I've only done a handful of months in my career
2. I wagered the most I've ever wagered in a single month: $9,900,000
3. I lost the most I've ever lost in a single month: $1,720,000

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      50   12    21        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,443,500
2018 balance: $5,277,000
balance: $50,790,260