yaps: popp

I always find it useful to have poker statistics which enable comparison between sessions, or comparison between tournaments. I've just come up with another one (yaps, yet another poker statistic), which I'm calling popp. It stands for percentage of prize pool, and uses the formula winnings / prize_pool * 100. On Saturday night, I had my fourth best popp ever for an MTT-R NLHE. Here are the top ten:

   popp     winnings    prize_pool  place     date

25.0296   $4,856,000   $19,401,000      1  2017-07-07a
16.9974   $2,891,000   $17,008,500      2  2017-06-13b
16.9974   $2,647,000   $15,573,000      2  2017-05-24a
13.9959   $1,449,000   $10,353,000      3  2017-07-29b
12.1487   $2,209,000   $18,183,000      3  2017-06-24b
 9.4956   $1,107,000   $11,658,000      4  2017-06-28b
 9.2485   $1,569.000   $16,965,000      4  2017-06-08b
 6.9989     $889,000   $12,702,000      5  2017-07-26a
 6.4968   $1,300,000   $20,010,000      5  2017-05-29a
 6.4955     $907,000   $13,963,500      5  2017-07-05c

It's no surprise that the better the place, the bigger the popp.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      75   15    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   139      48   12     3  1449000

delta: $1,149,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $14,301,000
2017 balance: $15,375,325
balance: $26,793,155

Poker parkour

I first became aware of the term parkour when I was watching a Minecraft video with my daughter several years ago; she a Minecraft aficionado. Here's Wikipedia's definition of parkour:

Parkour (French pronunciation: ​[paʁkuʁ]) is a training discipline using movement that developed from military obstacle course training.^[4][5][6] Practitioners aim to get from one point to another in a complex environment, without assistive equipment and in the fastest and most efficient way possible.

Thinking back on it, I realize I'd seen Jackie Chan perform parkour in a movie before I knew what it was called. He scaled the right angle formed by two perpendicular walls in a series of jumps, without ever using his hands. He made it look incredibly easy, but the outtakes at the end of the movie showed how difficult it had actually been.

I've read that some practitioners of parkour use city structures, and that some have fallen to their deaths attempting to leap from the top of one tall building to another.

This is all by way of trying to describe the kind of daring that at times is absolutely required when playing tournament poker. It's kind of like leaping from stone to stone across the Grand Canyon, when these stones are magically suspended in mid-air and don't even appear until after you've already started to jump towards where you hope the next one will be.

My parkour move last night was going all in on a stealth two pair, seeing my opponent make a superior two pair on the turn, and spiking a full house on the river. This was on hand 51, and I survived to play another 67 hands.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   118      89   18     7   906000

delta: $756,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $13,152,000
2017 balance: $14,226,325
balance: $25,644,155

Non-cash ROI

One of the great features of all non-cash poker styles is that it's dead simple to calculate your return on investment. There's a clearly defined bucket of how much you made in profit, and another clearly defined bucket of how much you wagered. Perform a simple division, and hey presto, you're done. I've never come up with a satisfactory method for calculating the ROI in a cash game. There's more than one way to do it, and each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Fortunately, I never have to decide which way is the best, since I don't intend to play any more cash games - ever :-)

That this year is a true outlier for me is starkly revealed by my non-cash ROI, broken out by year:

     roi       profit      wagered    year

 5.1077%   $1,168,090   $22,869,080   2012
 4.3470%     $591,850   $13,615,000   2014
 7.2150%   $1,763,842   $24,447,000   2015
 2.2203%     $931,902   $41,971,200   2016
45.7396%  $13,470,325   $29,450,000   2017

I'm on track to wager more than 50 million play dollars this year, and to make a profit of over 23 play million.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      71   15    27        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      61   15    28        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,396,000
2017 balance: $13,470,325
balance: $24,888,155

The Austin Powers technique

There's a silly, funny scene in one of the Austin Powers movies where Austin has infiltrated an enemy stronghold and is trying to navigate it without being discovered. For no logical reason, in the middle of a control room there's a fountain with the statute of a cherub peeing into it. When Austin runs by the fountain, he trips on the plug which powers (no pun intended) the cherub, and the plug gets pulled out of its socket. The flow of water is stopped, and Austin is in imminent danger of discovery. Thinking quickly, he hides behind the statue, unzips, and starts peeing into the fountain himself. A guard at the control booth on the other side of the room is on the phone, but eventually starts noticing that something is wrong with the fountain. Austin is able to pee for an absurdly long time, but it's inevitable that he'll finally run out.

This is all by way of trying to describe how it feels when I'm very short-stacked in a tournament, and am still a good distance away from making the money. The task in front of me? Simply to play for a number of minutes I have no realistic expectation of being able to play for.

Last night, when the field had narrowed to 16 players, of which 12 would be paid, I found myself short-stacked and in 16th place. What could I do? Metaphorically speaking, I had to unzip and start peeing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   157      55   12     5   889000

delta: $789,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,746,000
2017 balance: $13,820,325
balance: $25,238,155

14 bullet night

Last night, I fired the most bullets I'd ever fired in a single session - 14. That's a lot, especially considering I only played two tournaments. The most bullets I've ever fired in a single tournament is 9; I've done that twice, including last night's second tournament. Funnily enough, I made the money both of those times.

The 14 bullets fired meant I wagered $700,000 on the session. That made it to the top 10 on my career list, clocking in at number 8.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      73   15    31        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      47   12     9   345000

delta: $-355,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $11,957,000
2017 balance: $13,031,325
balance: $24,449,155

Winning bullets a la mode

Last night, I only played one tournament, and only fired two bullets, but still made the money. Lately, I've really been seeing the value of not adding on if at all possible; it's like spotting yourself an extra $50,000 :-)

I got curious to find out the mode of the bullets I fire in tournaments where I make the money; the answer, a little surprisingly, is 2; here are my current totals, where the first number is bullets fired and the second number is number of tournaments where I made the money firing that number of bullets:

2 (10)
5 (7)
3 (7)
4 (6)
7 (2)
9 (1)
6 (1)

This data tells me I need to just say no to firing more than 5 bullets in a tournament :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   125      90   18    14   548000

delta: $448,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,312,000
2017 balance: $13,386,325
balance: $24,804,155

The usual suspects

As I've mentioned before, I see a lot of familiar names when I play MTT-Rs. There's a core of regular players, and I'm one of them. We could be called the usual suspects :-) I enjoy competing against my fellow usual suspects, and always try to last longer than them, whether or not I make the money. Last night, I sent one of them to the rail in the first tournament I played. I have to admit, it was sweet :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    51      62   15    32        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   104      70   15    13   305000

delta: $105,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $11,864,000
2017 balance: $12,938,325
balance: $24,356,155

Bubblemeister

On Friday night, for the second session in a row, I bubbled an MTT-R NLHE. I've now bubbled 6 times in 90 career MTT-R NLHEs, which is 6.67% of the time. Just call me the bubblemeister :-) I don't mind bubbling when I was a huge long shot to make the money, and thankfully, that's mostly the case when I bubble.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    89      63   15    16        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    31      71   15    25        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    36      41    9    32        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $11,759,000
2017 balance: $12,833,325
balance: $24,251,155

Had I but screen enough

Last night, I fell victim to my lack of screen real estate. I use a laptop as is, without a docking station and without a nice large external monitor (or two). Due to this, I'm constantly switching back and forth between windows, which take turns in the foreground, eclipsing the others until it's their turn again. As I've mentioned before, the PokerStars client has the smarts to thrust itself to the foreground whenever it's my turn to act. This lays the groundwork for possible unfortunate events; you can think you're responding to one window, when suddenly, you're responding to the PokerStars client instead. That's what happened to me in the second tournament I played last night. A click meant for another window was received by the PokerStars client instead, and as unluck would have it, the click was squarely on the call button. I hit the felt on that very hand.

On the plus side, I didn't have to add on once last night, so my loss was less than it otherwise would have been.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      74   15    16        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      62   15    30        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    36      62   15    47        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,159,000
2017 balance: $13,233,325
balance: $24,651,155

Century percentage

It's essentially a given that if you last 100 or more hands in a tournament, you're going to make the money. In the 67 times I've had an MTT century, I've made the money every time. In the 21 times I've had an MTT-R century, I've made the money all but once. The upshot is that centuries are a very good thing :-) Given that fact, I decided to see what my century percentage is - that is, the percentage of the time I make a century when I play a tournament. In MTTs, I've made 67 centuries in 640 tournaments, for 10.47%. In MTT-Rs, I've made 21 centuries in 84 tournaments, for 25%.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   114      75   15    15   349000 

delta: $149,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,459,000
2017 balance: $13,533,325
balance: $24,951,155

Twin killing near the bubble

I got very lucky at the end of last night's second tournament. 15 places were paid, 17 players were left, and I was in the 17th spot at the start of hand 94. I folded before the flop; three players paid to see the flop, and two of them were all-in. Both all-in players ended up losing to the other player, and everybody else, including me, was suddenly in the money. Strictly speaking, there was no bubble hand.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    35    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    96    15   259000

delta: $-41,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,310,000
2017 balance: $13,384,325
balance: $24,802,155

Session twin century

In my poker nomenclature, a tournament century is a tournament where I lasted 100 or more hands. A tournament double century is a tournament where I lasted 200 or more hands. Looking over my results from last night, I was inspired to come up with a new definition - the session twin century. This is a session where I played multiple tournaments, and made a tournament century twice. I ran the numbers to find out how many times I've achieved this; counting last night, it's five.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   148     572  150    10   136100
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   107      78   18    11   418000

delta: $184,100
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,351,000
2017 balance: $13,425,325
balance: $24,843,155

Chasing .400

The standard of excellence for hitting in baseball is to bat .400; that is, to get a hit 4 out of every 10 at-bats.  That number also turns out to be a good standard of excellence for making the money in poker tournaments. I've now played 80 MTT-Rs in my career, and have made the money in 29 of them, for a .3625 average. The last time I eclipsed .400 was when I was 19 for 47, for .4043; I'm hoping I can eclipse it again some day.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      69   15    21        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    90      81   18    13   447000

delta: $197,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,283,000
2017 balance: $13,241,225
balance: $24,659,055

The nature of wagering

I've thought a lot about the nature of wagering over the nearly 9 years that I've played online poker, and recently realized that wagering is at the core of the difference between cash games and tournaments. Simply stated, tournaments involve pure wagers and cash games do not. What do I mean by a pure wager? An amount of money that is immediately and irrevocably spent. When you enter a tournament, your buy in and your entry fee are pure wagers. If you end up making the money, that's very nice, but it doesn't change the fact that the buy in and entry fee were immediately and irrevocably spent. That is not, and can never be, the case in a cash game. Whenever you make a bet in a cash game, you don't know until the hand is over whether that bet actually caused money to be deducted from your balance. It's a provisional bet, not a pure one. Perhaps that explains why I hate cash games so much :-) This emotion no longer smacks of ingratitude, since my tournament earnings now surpass my cash game earnings.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      77   18    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   104      69   15    12   368000

delta: $68,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,086,000
2017 balance: $13,044,225
balance: $24,462,055

A basket of improbables

If you play poker long enough, you're bound to see improbable things happen. They'll make a big impression on you, by the very nature of their improbability. You should try never to complain when you lose a hand due to an improbability, since by the law of averages you're going to win your share of improbable hands over time.

Last night, the final tournament I played was a basket of improbables (to put a twist on a Hillary Rodham Clinton locution :-)) The first improbable was that the turnout was so low, only 8 places were paid, even though it was a 9 max tournament. That meant a player could actually make the final table but not make the money. The second improbable was that I became that player :-) The third was that I never would have done so had I not lucked out on hand 82 and won a fall in with a super weak holding of 74o (seven four offsuit).

Even though I played well, I had the seventh worst session of my career, delta-wise. Had I managed to make the money in that final tournament, I would only have lost $26,000, instead of more than half a million. C'est la guerre :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      76   18    47        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      63   15    48        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   121     123   30    19    99000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    95      40    8     9        0

delta: $-551,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,018,000
2017 balance: $12,976,225
balance: $24,394,055

Doppeltourney

Last night, I got under the lights again. The one tournament I played was nearly a carbon copy of the second of the two tournaments I played the night before. In both, I finished in seventh place, and the winnings enabled me to come out in the black for the session. Moreover, my overall balance finished in the blue at the end of each. My blue count for the year is currently 18, which is just one shy of the count I had for all of last year. Tonight, I'm going to try to make it three times in a row under the lights :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   107      62   15     7   624000

delta: $374,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,618,000
2017 balance: $13,527,225
balance: $24,945,055

10 from the top

When I'm really on top of my game, my showdown winning percentage skyrockets. That doesn't necessarily mean I go to more showdowns and win them; it means that I really know when not to go to showdown, so that when I do go, I win almost every time. That's what happened in the second tournament I played last night. I went to showdown 11 times, and won the first 10. I hit the rail on the last one, but nobody's perfect :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      68   15    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    93      55   12     7   504000

delta: $254,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,244,000
2017 balance: $13,153,225
balance: $24,571,055

Friendly fall in

The one way you never want all of your chips to go in the middle is when they're forced there. That's the situation you're in when you're so short stacked that some combination of the ante and/or the small or big blind puts you all in. I call this "falling in". It's not a good feeling. You're completely in the hands of the poker gods. Last night, in the first tournament I played, I fell in on hand 23. I was dealt 92o (nine deuce offsuit) and things looked really bleak. Miraculously, the board came 3c 6h 8c 7h 5c, my 9 high straight held up, and I lived to fight another day :-) Interestingly, I remembered I made the money that tournament, but it turned out to be a false memory.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    39      59   12    24        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    72      56   12    10   349000

delta: $-151,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $11,990,000
2017 balance: $12,899,225
balance: $24,317,055

A question without an answer

I haven't mentioned this year's WSOP yet, which is an oversight. Whenever the WSOP is in progress, I'm acutely aware of it. As I've said before, each year I miss it more, even though I've never attended. This year, I've been greatly enjoying Daniel Negreanu's wonderful vlogs about his 2017 WSOP experiences.

The WSOP Main Event started on Saturday, and a historic cooler has already taken place on a Day 1, which is a bit unusual. Vanessa Selbst hit the rail when her aces full ran into Gaëlle Baumann's quad sevens. The question I've been asking myself is whether Selbst could somehow have found a fold. More accurately, the question I've been asking is whether anyone could have found a fold. Most accurately, the question I've been asking is whether I could have found a fold. It's a question without an answer; I honestly don't know.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   108      64   15    10   372000

delta: $72,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,141,000
2017 balance: $13,050,225
balance: $24,468,055

To add on or not to add on

When playing an MTT-R, the decision about whether to rebuy is quite clear-cut. I almost always rebuy immediately after joining a tournament, before I've even been dealt a hand; I say almost, since I forgot to once :-) Also, I always rebuy (and a double rebuy at that) whenever I hit the felt during the late registration period.

The decision about whether to add on, once the late registration period has ended, is murkier. If I have a big stack, i.e. one which is well about the average, it doesn't make sense to add on, and I generally don't. I used to think it made sense to add on in every case where my stack is below the average, but now I'm not so sure. A good case can be made for not adding on when your stack is well below the average; adding on in this situation is akin to throwing good money after bad.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    92      75   15    13   366000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      77   18    35        0

delta: $116,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $12,069,000
2017 balance: $12,978,225
balance: $24,396,055

Up top

The title of this post is the answer to almost every poker question that can be asked of me:

What place did you take last night?
Up top.

What position does last night's tournament have in your all-time list?
Up top.

What position does last night's session have in your all-time list?
Up top.

Where is your current MTT-R NLHE balance?
Up top.

Where is your current 2017 balance?
Up top.

Where is your current overall balance?
Up top.

Once again, I'm speechless.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   157      73   15     1  4856000 

delta: $4,656,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $11,953,000
2017 balance: $12,862,225
balance: $24,280,055

The canonical cooler

The most memorable hand of last night's session was one I lost, as is often the case with memorable hands. It was the canonical cooler - I was dealt pocket kings, and an opponent was dealt pocket rockets. Before the flop, I was already a 17.82% dog. The only reason I didn't hit the felt was because I had my opponent covered at the start of the hand. Despite failing to make the money in either tournament I entered, I was generally happy with my play.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      67   15    25        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      70   15    30        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,297,000
2017 balance: $8,206,225
balance: $19,624,055

According to Hoyle

Last night, I got under the lights again. As I've mentioned before, that's always a great feeling :-) When the final table started, I had the fifth largest chip stack. 32 hands later, I finished in fifth. So you could say that everything went according to Hoyle, but that wouldn't be strictly accurate. I got severely short-stacked during seven-handed play, and was very lucky to ladder up two positions from there. Those two spots made a difference of $314,000 to my bottom line.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    97     430  114    21    73700
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    69      90   18    41        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   124      68   15     5   907000 

delta: $510,700
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,697,000
2017 balance: $8,606,225
balance: $20,024,055

The lonesome bullet

I had another personal first last night. For the first time ever in an MTT-R NLHE, I fired a single, solitary bullet. I didn't rebuy, and I didn't add on. I also didn't make the money, but that's another story :-) I went out in rather brutal fashion, with my ATo (ace ten offsuit) dominated by an opponent's AKs (ace king suited). The good news is that I lost only $50,000, instead of $150,000 or more.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      75   15    18        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,240,000
2017 balance: $8,095,525
balance: $19,513,35

Career worst four bagger

It's easy to make huge profits quickly playing MTT-R NLHE. It's also easy to lose huge amounts quickly playing it; that's just the nature of this particular poker beast. Last night, I completed the worst four bagger of my career. In the last four sessions, I've lost $1,505,000. I feel like I'm due for another big upswing; we'll see.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      75   15    35        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      60   12    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      46   12    17        0

delta: $-650,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,290,000
2017 balance: $8,145,525
balance: $19,563,355

Eyes wider shut

On Saturday night, I had an even harder time keeping my eyes open than I had the night before. It's not surprising that I failed to make the money, but I came pretty close. Not bad considering I was sitting out for a sixth of the hands. Tonight, by hook or by crook, I'll keep my eyes open :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    72      53   12    15        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,940,000
2017 balance: $8,795,525
balance: $20,213,355

Eyes wide shut

Last night, I was really too tired for poker, but played anyway. For the majority of the session, my eyes were shut. Somehow, I managed to play three tournaments, and even made the money in one of them. In that tournament, although I got timed out 19 times, I managed to click the "I'm back" button before the next hand started all but 6 times.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    27      58   12    46        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9    87     132   36    27    95000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    46      60   12    28        0

delta: $-305,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $8,090,000
2017 balance: $8,945,525
balance: $20,363,355