The Janus hand

Janus was the Roman god of duality, among other things. There is no hand in poker with more of a dual nature than pocket aces. I hereby dub it the Janus hand :-) Pockets aces can easily double you up; unfortunately, they can just as easily bounce you out of a tournament. I experienced the latter outcome in the second MTT I entered last night, on just the second hand. I'm certain I've never exited an MTT that early before. Let me check the archives ... Shows you how much I know! :-) There were fully four examples of "prior art".

Here's how the Janus hand went down ... oops! I just discovered my memory was faulty again. I didn't have rockets after all. I was dealt a suited big slick (ace king), and paired my ace on the flop. I was up against an opponent who'd been dealt pocket queens. After the flop, I was a 91% favorite to win the hand. Unluckily for me, my opponent spiked a queen on the turn, and his set of queens held up. Out in a New York minute!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    70     413   96   136        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     2      26    8     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    33     362   96   183        0

delta: $-90,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,537,048
2017 balance: $459,025
balance: $11,876,855

Spoiled by big numbers

Last night, I made a small profit. I deprecated it when I first saw how small it was; however, that was the wrong way to look at it. Even small profits are good :-) I realize I've become somewhat spoiled by big numbers. Last night, I averaged $25 in profit per hand. If I played a live tournament at a casino, I'm sure I'd be ecstatic to make $25 a hand. I'll try to adjust my attitude.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    78     141   36    51        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   107     436  114    24    74700

delta: $4,700
MTT NLHE balance: $2,627,048
2017 balance: $549,025
balance: $11,966,855

No ignorant end

When you hit a straight in poker, you need to be aware of whether you have the ignorant end of it or not. The ignorant end is when you complete the straight with the low card of the straight, rather than the high card. In general, you don't want to either bet or call with the ignorant end; you just want to check. If someone else bets, your best course is to fold. Of course, even completing the straight with the high card doesn't guarantee you have the best straight; an opponent might have the same high card you do, plus the card one numerically higher than that. I call that scenario "high end plus" (and let me tell you, it sure hurts to get "high end plussed").

When you hit a straight flush, however, you don't have to worry about the ignorant end; essentially, the odds are so small that having the ignorant end will make a difference in the outcome that you can essentially treat them as zero. That's what I did, in the sixth hand I played last night. I hit a straight flush on the turn, where the board showed four contiguous cards to a straight flush and one of my hole cards completed it on the low end. My opponent, who had me covered, went all in, and I called. A sweet double up :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   107     430  114    32    63200

delta: $43,200
MTT NLHE balance: $2,622,348
2017 balance: $544,325
balance: $11,962,155

Tournament selection no-no

If you choose to enter a tournament which is nearing the end of its late registration period, you're very likely choosing wrong. Playing tournaments is hard enough without making things harder on yourself. The problem with joining a tournament late is that you're automatically one of the short stacks, and have less time to grow your stack. You'll often be priced out of hands by the bigger stacks. Things can get pretty desperate pretty quickly; you can find yourself out of the tournament in a New York minute. Last night, I joined two of four tournaments I played late, and paid a heavy price - I hit the rail quickly in both. What's worse, they were $50,000 BI+EF ones. I'm making a new poker vow, which is to pass on tournaments with less than half their late registration period remaining.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    19      97   24     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    46     475  114   175        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     9     101   24     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    86     424  114    41    57100

delta: $-82,900
MTT NLHE balance: $2,579,148
2017 balance: $501,125
balance: $11,918,955

Century percentage

Last night, I had another century - that is, another tournament where I lasted at least 100 hands. As I've noted before, it's virtually impossible not to make the money in such a case; I've made the money in every century I've had so far. One number I haven't looked at very much is century percentage - i.e., the percentage of the time I make a century. Currently, I'm 53 for 584 in MTT NLHE, which is just a smigdgen over 9%. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   115     157   42    26    98000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    41     150   36    53        0

delta: $-2,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,662,048
2017 balance: $584,025
balance: $12,001,855

Another manufactured top ten

Last night's session was a losing one, but I still played well enough to be able to manufacture another top ten from it :-) When I look at just sessions where my aggregate delta for MTT NLHEs is negative, last night's session had the fourth highest average percentile, clocking in at a squeak over 79. Somehow, I joined a 9 max by mistake for my second tournament, but it was a lucky mistake, since I was able to make the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    69     164   42    46        0
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    70     309   81    43    50000

delta: $-20,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,664,048
2017 balance: $586,025
balance: $12,003,855

Perspective

In the last six sessions, including last night's, I've lost over a third of a million play dollars. That seems like a pretty bad downswing, but is it really? Let me check the archives ... As it turns out, that six session stretch is only the 103rd worst such stretch of my career. With that perspective, I can honestly say this downswing is a mere blip on the radar :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    13      99   24     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   123     518  132    39    63400
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    45     449  114   137        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    32      52   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    20     434  114   300        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    41     115   30    64        0

delta: $-146,600
MTT NLHE balance: $2,684,048
2017 balance: $606,025
balance: $12,023,855

Over and out

Although it's never fun to hit the rail in a tournament, at least you can accept it in the cases where you were an underdog after the turn on the final hand. What's hard to accept is hitting the rail when you were a favorite after the turn. I hereby dub such a scenario an "over and out". Last night, I had two over and outs in a row, in the second and third tournaments I entered. The second one was just nine hands after the first. Ouch!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    51     146   36    43        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    52     460  114   146        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     9      66   18     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    30     418   96   216        0

delta: $-140,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,830,648
2017 balance: $752,625
balance: $12,170,455

Last night's most memorable hand

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - for me, the most memorable hands are ones I lost. I expect that's true for other players as well. Last night, my most memorable hand was when I lost with eights full of kings to kings full of jacks. The most common way to lose a full house to a better full house is to have the "ignorant end" of the full house - that is, when you have three of the smaller denomination and two of the higher, and your opponent has the same two denominations but with the counts reversed. It's much rarer to lose a full house to a better full house when three denominations are in play across the two full houses, as was the case in last night's memorable hand.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    81     155   42    32    83000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    77     126   30    25    85000

delta: $68,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,970,648
2017 balance: $892,625
balance: $12,310,455

All in, my pretties

It's pretty much a given that in order to do well in an MTT, you're going to have to go all in at times. You need to keep your stack in a healthy state, and the only sure-fire way to do that is to double up at fairly regular intervals. The only way to double up is to go all in. In the final MTT I played last night, I got under the lights again. I got curious about the number of times I went all in. The answer: 9. That means I won 8 straight times I went all in. There are two prerequisites for achieving this:

1. only go all in on strong hands
2. have luck on your side

Here are my all in hands from that last MTT (the first column is the hand delta):

       572 6c 6h hand  25
       710 Qh Qc hand  39
       574 Qd Qs hand  61
      1488 Ks Ac hand  66
      2675 Td Ts hand  79
      1248 8d 8h hand 108
       608 Kh Ac hand 117
       608 Ks Kh hand 118
    -12734 Ac 3c hand 190

It sure looks like a "Who's Who" of premium hands to me :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    12     337   84     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15     155   42    61        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   190     143   36     6   296000

delta: $176,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,902,648
2017 balance: $824,625
balance: $12,242,455

Now I know how Phil Hellmuth felt

Here's how I started my blog post "Now I know how Tony G felt", written on December 12, 2013:

Some years ago, there was a poker show on television called "The Big Game". I never saw it when it was being aired, but have since seen some great clips from it on the PokerStars TV website. Some of the most entertaining clips involved epic clashes, both poker and verbal, between Phil Hellmuth and Tony G. They're both well-known for harsh criticism of their opponents, so when they're sitting at the same table, you can expect real fireworks. On one of the shows, Tony G was relentless in his belittling of Hellmuth. He kept repeating, over and over, "I own you!".

This time around, I know how Phil Hellmuth felt. In my short-lived appearance in the second tournament I entered last night, I lost all but 20 of my 1,500 chips to the same opponent. The 20 chips I didn't lose to him comprised my loss on the first of the five hands I played. There were no verbal clashes, but the poker clashes were sufficient for me to realize I'd been utterly owned. The funny thing is, I had a feeling after the first loss to my "owner" that I was going to lose more chips to him. I knew it would have very little to do with skill. Sometimes, there's nothing you can do, short of folding every time that player is in the hand. That's a cowardly tactic, and one I'd never adopt.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    99     138   36    22    99000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     5     206   60     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    31     485  114   239        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     9      53   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       9    21     218   45    91        0

delta: $-141,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,726,648
2017 balance: $648,625
balance: $12,066,455

yadpb

Last night, I set yet another dubious personal best (yadpb for short :-)). I averaged the most hands (66) per MTT NLHE for a session where I failed to make the money in any MTT NLHE. I take my silver linings where I can find them :-) I'm hoping last night's session was a harbinger of better sessions to come.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    59      91   18     0        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    73     124   30    57        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,867,648
2017 balance: $789,625
balance: $12,207,455

The land of the ones

As I've mentioned before, I infinitely prefer 6 max to 9 max. I've vowed many times never to play 9 max again. I know that's an unrealistic goal, but it's something to strive for. Among its other advantages, 6 max sometimes has pay structures which get you to the land of the ones even before you reach the final table. What do I mean by the land of the ones? I mean the payouts which only pay that amount out to a single place. If you can reach the land of the ones in an MTT, you're definitely in the clover. Last night, the land of the ones started at place 9, even though it was a 6 max; I reached it, although just barely, finishing in ninth.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    86      91   24     9   285000

delta: $185,000
MTT NLHE balance: $3,017,648
2017 balance: $939,625
balance: $12,357,455

Manufacturing a top ten

Data is a malleable thing. If you're perseverant enough, you can get it to say almost anything you want. On Friday night, I knew I'd played a lot of hands, to very little effect. That made me curious to find out where the session stood in that regard. I decided to focus only on losing sessions, or more specifically, on non-winning sessions, since I've had one session where I broke even. Friday's session only made it to number 22 on that list. Not very exciting. Then I decided to further filter my search to only the sessions where I'd played 200 or more hands. Using the modified criteria, Friday's session made it to number 5 on that list. Bingo! Yet another (albeit manufactured) top ten :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   126     139   36    16   118000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    62     488  114   168        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    38      60   15     -        0

delta: $-2,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,832,648
2017 balance: $754,625
balance: $12,172,455

Chasing profit

The conventional poker wisdom is that you should never chase profit; that is to say, when you're in the hole, you shouldn't try to get out of it by playing for increasingly higher stakes. Intellectually, I know that to be true; viscerally, however, there's something very appealing about the idea of risking more than you risked before. It's a form of magical thinking. "All my debt will disappear in one fell swoop! Lemme at those higher stakes!"

Last night, I did some profit chasing - and actually caught it :-) I'm not going to make a habit of doing that, of course, but it's nice to know it can sometimes work. Contrary to my advice from last night's post, I immediately looked at my extrapolated profit after last night's session, and was very pleased to see it exceeding 2.75 million play dollars.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    97     160   42    36    86000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    20     452  114     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     3      50   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       9   115     221   45     6   691000

delta: $557,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,834,648
2017 balance: $756,625
balance: $12,174,455

Evermore and ever better ofer

There are many different kinds of ofers. My favorite is the kind I had last night - evermore and ever better. It means I was improving throughout the session, even though I had nothing to show for it at the end. I'd like to think this kind of performance bodes well for the following session; we'll see.

In other news, my extrapolated profit dropped down to just over three quarters of a million play dollars. This makes me realize it's not a good idea to look at this number too often; like weighing yourself, once a week should be plenty :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    16     504  132   348        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    72     150   36    48        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    80     109   30    32        0

delta: $-120,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,277,648
2017 balance: $199,625
balance: $11,617,455

Extrapolated million

Three good things to report about last night's session:

1. I had my second winning session in a row
2. I made the money in both tournaments I entered, which I played simultaneously
3. my extrapolated profit for the year bounced back over a million

I'll do my best to keep the new streak going :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   117     157   42    21   113000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   106     415   96    36    67500

delta: $110,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,397,648
2017 balance: $319,625
balance: $11,737,455

Stopping the bitch

On Monday night, I stopped the bitch, bringing my five session losing streak to a halt. I did it on the strength of the good showing I made in the middle of the three tournaments I played. However, it's a sobering fact that I've failed to make the money in 19 of the last 21 tournaments I've played. That's a brutal stretch.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     5     537  132   379        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   141     146   36    17   124000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    37     438  114   240        0 

delta: $34,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,287,148
2017 balance: $209,125
balance: $11,626,955

Uberflushed twice

One of the worst feelings you can experience at a poker table is having your flush beaten by a better flush, in the case where the board has three cards to a flush and both your hole cards are needed to complete it. The odds that someone else has another such flush, let alone one which beats yours, are small indeed. I call the better flush an uberflush, and say that the loser has been uberflushed :-) Last night, I was uberflushed in both tournaments I played. In both, I was making good headway toward the money. In the first tournament, I hit the rail on the uberflush hand; in the second, my stack took a severe blow and I only lasted another ten hands. With last night's loss, I've had five losing sessions in a row, for an aggregate loss of over half a million play dollars. The silver lining is that the current streak, bad as it is, only makes it to number 35 on my all-time worst list :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    56     137   36     -        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    43     142   36    43        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,253,148
2017 balance: $175,125
balance: $11,592,955

Futile perfection

Last night, I achieved futile perfection; in 46 hands over 2 tournaments, I failed to win a single pot. The way I look at it, I have nowhere to go but up :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    28      44   12     0        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    18       ?    ?   198        0

delta: $-70,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,353,148
2017 balance: $275,125
balance: $11,692,955

Another dubious personal best

On Friday night, I set another dubious personal best. This one was for number of hands played in a session while failing to make the money in any tournament. The 234 hands I played dwarfed the second place finisher on the list - 156 hands on January 13th of this year. Since my first place win on March 28th, I've essentially been in freefall.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    27     493  132   241        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    76     168   42    80        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    39     512  132   264        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35      46   12     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    57     447  114   171        0

delta: $-160,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,423,148
2017 balance: $345,125
balance: $11,762,955