Waiting for a wave

I first used this blog post title way back on September 7, 2010, in my cash game days. Here's an excerpt of what I wrote:

I've said what I'm about to say before. I've even said "I've said what I'm about to say before" before. The thing is, when you find a good metaphor, you stick with it! Waiting for a good hand in poker is like waiting for a good wave in surfing.

Since poker is fractal, I'd like to apply that idea in a larger context. Waiting for a big MTT cash is also like waiting for a good wave. You know it's out there, you just don't know when it's going to come. In the meantime, you have to take your lumps. I took some more last night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     2        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     6     546  117   221        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     3      63   18     -        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9     7      34    7     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    27     348   84   124        0

delta: $-142,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,216,448
2017 balance: $139,550
balance: $11,557,380

A farewell to 8-game

At one point, I thought my best poker flavor was 8-game. Now, I know this to be false. Since I swore off cash games and sit and gos, the only remaining style I would occasionally play 8-game in was MTT.  Now I've decided not to play any more of that, which means a farewell to 8-game completely. What led me to this decision? An excellent quit signal :-) With my latest failure to make the money in an MTT 8-game, my MTT 8-game balance moved up (or down, depending on how you look at it :-)) to my worst style and flavor combination. I've lost $216,830 on it; my next worst combination is KO NLHE, on which I've lost $133,064.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     3        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    22      76   18    39        0
MTT   NLHE    44000  6000       9    54     206   45    16    67300

delta: $-35,200
MTT NLHE balance: $2,356,448
2017 balance: $282,050
balance: $11,699,880

Dubious top ten

The most play money I've ever lost per hand in a session is $25,000. That was a cash game session where I bought in for $50,000 and hit the felt on hand 2. Strange as it may seem, in both sessions when I lost more than a million play dollars, the amount lost per hand was more respectable than that - $4,367 and $2,247. Last night, by losing $3,696 per hand, the session made it to the top ten (number 8) on that particular all-time list - a dubious distinction. It certainly didn't help that for the first time ever I entered an MTT NLHE with a $100,000 BI+EF. This was due to impatience; no $20,000 or $50,000 was in the offing at the time, and I didn't feel like waiting.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     2        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    14     513  108   173        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    10      65   18    37        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    22      47    9     -        0

delta: $-172,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,339,148
2017 balance: $317,250
balance: $11,735,080

The 9 max inflection point

Looking at the bar chart of the payouts of a 9 max MTT, the stark reality is that you're essentially an also-ran unless you make the final table. In the 9 max I played last night, the payouts for the players who made the final table comprised 61.99% of the prize pool. Surely you're a chump to join such a tournament - right? Actually, it all depends on how good you are. Once you've made the final table a number of times, you start believing you can do so on a fairly regular basis. That's certainly the case for me. The final table is the inflection point - if you can get to it, you're going to make some serious cash. The 1st place prize last night was a whopping $2,002,600 - more than 100 times the buy in plus the entry fee. That's what I'm talkin' about!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     1     6375
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    80     692  144    16    62700

?delta: $46,575
MTT NLHE balance: $2,459,148
2017 balance: $489,750
balance: $11,907,580

.38 special

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. This time, I'm talking about the ROI I made when I hit the bottom rung of the pay ladder in the one MTT NLHE I played last night. Of course it was a 6 max; if it had been a 9 max, I would have lost money :-) I have the sneaking suspicion this is the best bottom rung ROI I've ever had; sometime soon, I'll verify if this is true. Unfortunately, that will require some manual labor; since PokerStars doesn't save the pay tables in the hand histories, I save them via screen captures.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     3        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    40     386   96    89    27600

delta: $5,100
MTT NLHE balance: $2,416,448
2017 balance: $443,175
balance: $11,861,005

Winning in absentia

I was bound to win a Power Up tournament eventually. I did last night. Ironically, I wasn't around to see it :-) The PokerStars client crashed just after I went all in with top pair and top kicker. When I started the client up again, I was taken to the main lobby, instead of to the Power Up table. It only dawned on me what had happened when I checked my balance and noticed I was about 6K richer. I really hope PokerStars can get rid of the glitches which are causing the crashes. In the meantime, though, I'm determined to deal with them.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     1     6375
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    25     135   27    32        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    46     561  117    80    23100
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    20     350   72     -        0

delta: $-63,025
MTT NLHE balance: $2,408,848
2017 balance: $438,075
balance: $11,855,905

Power Up isn't poker, but it's fun

Despite the constant crashing, Power Up is actually quite fun to play. However, it isn't poker. For that reason, it'll never be more than an interesting diversion to me. MTT NLHE is, and will remain, my main game. The last fun-and-pokeresque-but-not-poker game I tried before Power Up was SkillBet. I played it for about a week, then never returned. I'm guessing Power Up may share the same fate.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     2        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     6     418   90     -        0
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    31     251   63    79        0

delta: $-42,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,475,748
2017 balance: $501,100
balance: $11,918,930

Evermore and ever better in vain

Today PokerStars sent me an email thanking me for playing Power Up, and asking for my impressions. I told them about the annoying crashes, but also about what I liked about the game. For the time being, I'll start every session by playing one Power Up tournament, before switching over to MTTs.

Not counting Power Up, last night I had an evermore and ever better session, but it was all in vain;  didn't make the money once. I think the steady improvement bodes well for tonight's session, though.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     3        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     6      78   21     -        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    37     738  153   179        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    87     111   30    37        0

delta: $-122,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,515,748
2017 balance: $543,600
balance: $11,961,430

Alpha tester

PokerStars is currently alpha testing a new game they've developed, called Power Up. They've invited some of their play money players to be alpha testers. I got an invitation, and played my first Power Up tournament on Friday night. The PokerStars client kept crashing on me, forcing me to restart it continually. Bugs like this are to be expected in alpha software, but that doesn't make them any less annoying.

Power Up is essentially a mashup of NLHE with online games where players use special powers to change the outcomes of a battle. With all the crashing of the PokerStars client, I was only able to invoke a power successfully twice. Both times, it was the power that lets a player nuke one of the board cards. I have to say, it felt great to invoke this power! Both times I used it, I nuked a queen.

I'll give Power Up another try tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     2        0  
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    86     514  108     0        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   108     120   30     9   162000

delta: $198,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,635,748
2017 balance: $666,100
balance: $12,083,930

A better predictor of MTT success

In last night's post, what I really meant by recipe for success was predictor of success. Such a predictor should fulfill two requirements:

1. it should maximize correct predictions
2. it should minimize incorrect predictions

The recipe I gave last night did very well on the second requirement, but very poorly on the first. Here are the numbers:

maximum possible correct predictions: 445
actual correct predictions: 8
maximum_possible incorrect predictions: 445
actual incorrect predictions: 0

I've come up with a better predictor: if you play at least 100 hands (a century) of MTT NLHE, you'll make the money. Here are the numbers for this predictor:

maximum possible correct predictions: 445
actual correct predictions: 38
maximum_possible incorrect predictions: 445
actual incorrect predictions: 0

Clearly, there's a lot of room for a better predictor to come along.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   118    16    87700

delta: $67,700
MTT NLHE balance: $2,435,248
2017 balance: $468,100
balance: $11,885,930

A simple recipe for MTT success

Looking at the summary statistics from last night's session, one thing jumps out - in the second MTT I entered, the number of hands I played exceeded the number of entrants. That got me curious to see if that had ever happened to me before. Turns out it had - seven times, to be exact. Here are the details:

hands    entries    paid    place    winnings

  235        134      36        2    $554,000    2017-01-17c
  295        116      30        2    $511,000    2016-12-20a
  187        111      30        2    $489,000    2016-12-09c
  128        114      30        6    $261,000    2016-12-22a
  103         90      21       11    $129,000    2016-12-15b
  107        100      24       14    $117,000    2017-02-15b
  125        116      30       16    $109,000    2017-02-01a
  238        234      60        3     $53,900    2016-09-26c

As you might expect, I made the money in every instance. Therefore, my simple recipe for MTT success is to play more hands than there are players :-) Of course, it's simple to state, but devilishly difficult to achieve.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     9     549  117   192        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   107     100   24    14   117000

delta: $47,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,367,548
2017 balance: $400,400
balance: $11,818,230

Warming up

Lately, I've been playing chess each night before playing poker. I play on lichess.org, a wonderful chess site. I used to write a chess blog, but abandoned it when I realized I wasn't going to improve the way I wanted. I've noticed similarities between poker and chess before, and just realized another one - it takes me a while to warm up when playing either game. It would be great if the software just let you play in a warm up mode until you felt you were ready to play for real. I'm sure my chess rating and my overall poker balance would be higher it that mode existed :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    14     493   99     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    28      94   24    48        0

delta: $-70,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,320,548
2017 balance: $353,400
balance: $11,771,230

Laddering up

There are many ways to make the money in an MTT. I've discovered that my favorite way is to ladder up, rather than being a front runner. A rather extreme case in point is the second MTT I played last night. At the start of hand 39, I had just 293 in chips. Since there were 387 entrants, each of whom started out with 1,500 in chips, there were 580,500 chips in play across all the tables. My 293 represented just .0505 percent of that. With some luck, I was able to play 14 more hands, including that one, and reach the third rung of the money ladder.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    14     640  135   201        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    52     387   96    69    38600

delta: $-1,400
MTT NLHE balance: $2,390,548
2017 balance: $423,400
balance: $11,841,230

Personal first

Personal worsts are relatively rare. The same is true for personal bests. The really rare beast, however, is the personal first. That's when something happens to you which has never happened to you before. By definition, a personal first can happen only once. Last night I had one. For the very first time, I exited an MTT without winning any money and also without losing any money. I broke even exactly. This can only happen in tournaments with pay tables which steal from the poor places and give to the rich ones. On PokerStars, these are typically 9 max MTTs; I don't think I've ever seen a 6 max MTT with a screwy pay table like that. I've tried to convince myself not to play MTTs with screwy pay tables, but I haven't succeeded yet. The money up top is just too tempting :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    41     606  126   155        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    30      80   21     -        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    41     154   36    28    50000

delta: $-70,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,391,948
2017 balance: $424,800
balance: $11,842,630

Another personal worst

As I've mentioned before, I'm almost as jazzed about setting personal worsts as I am about setting personal bests; I'm quirky that way :-) I think the reason is that in each case, the poker gods are singling me out in some way, which is much better than being ignored. This reminds me of quotations from two movies:

Norrington: No additional shot nor powder, a compass that doesn't point north,
[looks at Jack's sword]
Norrington: And I half expected it to be made of wood. You are without doubt the worst pirate I've ever heard of.
Jack Sparrow: But you have heard of me. 

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)

Alex Forrest: [to Dan] Well, what am I supposed to do? You won't answer my calls, you change your number. I mean, I'm not gonna be ignored, Dan! 

Fatal Attraction (1987)

With last night's losses, I had the worst 6 session stretch of MTT NLHE in my career. I lost $422,200 in that stretch. Had I not switched flavors in the final tournament of the session, it might have been nearly half a million. I may be the worst poker player the poker gods have ever heard of, but they have heard of me :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    53     143   36    51        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    39      84   21     -        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    92      64   12    21        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,461,948
2017 balance: $494,800
balance: $11,912,630

The "never complain" rule

If there's one thing I've learned in all my years of playing poker, it's that you should never complain. Certainly, there will be times when you'll feel hard done by the poker gods. The thing to keep in mind is that it's much easier to remember bad luck than it is to remember good luck. It's all too easy to treat good luck as if it's skill. If you're really honest with yourself, you only ever get into a position to complain heartily about bad luck after you've already been the beneficiary of a lot of good luck.

A lot of poker players would be sorely tempted to complain if they exited a tournament in 9th place when an opponent hit a 2 outer on the river. That happened to me last night, and I'm happy to say I have nothing to complain about :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     4     280   72     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    66     130   36    66        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    29     432  114   176        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    99     111   30     9   149000

delta: $9,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,561,948
2017 balance: $644,800
balance: $12,062,630

Poker selfies

Selfies, which are pictures you take of yourself on your cell phone, are now a cultural staple. The concept of taking a selfie applies to events you want to capture for posterity, even when neither cameras nor your own smiling face are involved. For instance, I've taken numerous poker selfies while playing tournaments. Instead of taking pictures of myself, I'm capturing screen shots of the tournament lobby when my stack figures prominently :-)

Last night, I think I took my earliest poker selfie ever. On the very first hand of my third tournament, I won a pot worth 3,256 in chips. It shot my stack up to number 14 out of the 205 players playing at that time. Definitely worth a picture! Unfortunately, that was the highlight of my session; I failed to make the money in any of the tournaments I entered.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    19     480   99     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    16     115   30    66        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    49     360   84   113        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     4     421   90     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    21      88   21    41        0

delta: $-160,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,552,948
2017 balance: $635,800
balance: $12,053,630

Polar bull

Actions made on the river are often polarizing. A polarizing action is a bet which could equally have been made by an opponent with a worthless hand and by an opponent with the nuts. When you respond to a polarizing action, you must decide for yourself whether your opponent has nothing, or everything. I've just come up with some terminology to distinguish your response. If you believe your opponent has everything, you should fold; in this case, you're a polar bear. If you believe your opponent has nothing, you should call; in this case, you're a polar bull. Not only are you bullish on your own hand, you believe your opponent's bet is bull(shit) :-)

Last night, I hit the rail in the second tournament I entered when I made a polar bull decision. I was dealt 4s Ah. The board was 8d Qd Qh Jh Jd. An opponent who had me covered went all in on the river, and I called. He turned over 9s Jc. I thought he was bluffing, since an earlier showdown had revealed his willingness to bluff. I was wrong, but I went with my read. That counts for something!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    36     170   36    48        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    55     115   30    25    77000

delta: $-23,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,712,948
2017 balance: $795,800
balance: $12,213,630

The Orient Express

Playing an MTT is like riding on a train where the conductor has the option of throwing you off at any time, even while the train is in motion :-) Sometimes, this happens before you even get to the first station. When you're at the combination of your best and your luckiest, however, you don't believe you're ever going to be thrown off the train. It becomes the Orient Express, and you're damn well going to ride it hundreds of miles to the end of the line. Those kinds of journeys make all the times you're summarily chucked off other trains worth it.

Last night, it took me five tournaments to get on a decent train. I think I set a record for most times in a session I failed to last until the end of the late registration period - a gaudy four :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    17     481   99     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    24      83   21     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    18     293   72     -        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    10      84   18     -        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    83     459   99    18    53000

delta: $-107,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,735,948
2017 balance: $818,800
balance: $12,236,630

Kicked out

I was kicked out of the final tournament I played last night. No, I wasn't asked to leave :-) I was simply done in by an opponent with a better kicker. My ace nine suited lost to an ace ten offsuit, on a board of 5d Ac Jh 3h 3c. Thankfully, I'd already made the money when this occurred. It was the only tournament where I made the money, in fact.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    38     546  117   143        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    36      56   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    61     310   84    41    48800

delta: $-41,200
MTT NLHE balance: $2,842,948
2017 balance: $925,800
balance: $12,343,630

Freudian slip

Last night, for the first time in years, I played poker without writing a blog post first. This wasn't intentional, but was a Freudian slip of sorts. It's indicative of a slight disinclination to blog. Since I hadn't played since Friday night, I subconsciously felt that I must have done my duty already. I don't think this is a very serious lapse, since I generally love to blog. It's certainly true, though, that I'm finding it harder lately to figure out what to write about. This in turn has made my blogging a tad stale. I'm sure I'll eventually pick up the pace again, but I'm somewhat in the blogging doldrums right now.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   125     128   36    15   126000
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     3     267   54     -        0

delta: $56,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,884,148
balance: $12,384,830

S.O.S.

One of the hardest hands to lay down is a set, especially when the board doesn't support a straight, doesn't support a flush, and doesn't support a full house. In such a case, the only hand that can beat yours is a better set. That boils down to someone having been dealt a better pocket pair than yours. That situation is called "set over set". I call it S.O.S. for short :-)

Last night, I was on the wrong end of an S.O.S. on just the second hand of the first MTT I joined. All my chips went into the middle, and I was out of the tournament in a New York minute. There's no use complaining about S.O.S.'s, though; they happen, and they happen to everyone. I'm sure I've been on the right end of just as many as I've been on the wrong end of.

I joined my second MTT with just a minute left in the late registration period, and ended up making the money. I have enough confidence in my poker abilities to believe I can join an MTT at any time and still have a decent chance to make the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     2     234   60     0        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    78     114   30     9   153000

delta: $83,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,828,148
2017 balance: $911,000
balance: $12,328,830

Consecutive centuries

Counting last night, I've now played 410 MTT NLHEs. That's well behind the 1,583 SNG NLHEs I've played, but I know I'll catch up :-) Of those 410, 35 have been centuries; that is, have lasted 100 hands or longer. Last night, I had another, which was my second in a row. That got me curious to see if I'd ever had consecutive centuries before; as it turned out, I had, twice.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   125     116   30    16   109000

delta: $59,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,745,148
2017 balance: $828,000
balance: $12,245,830

The money up top

One of the fascinating things about poker is that nothing is true for long. Things that are true become false, and then true again, in cycles. I used to think that I should avoid 9 max like the plague. Now I think I should be on it like white on rice :-) Last night, I joined a 9 max by mistake, via a fortuitous fingerfehler. It was fortuitous since I was able to get under the lights, and make a huge cash in fifth place. The money up top in 9 max tournaments is truly obscene. Since I joined the 9 max before the late registration period had begun, and had good luck that way, I'll continue to join 9 maxes in this fashion.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9   140     621  126     5   516400

delta: $496,400
MTT NLHE balance: $2,686,148
2017 balance: $769,000
balance: $12,186,830